UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Dictators, Democrats, and Development in Nigeria A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Arthur Carl LeVan, Jr. Committee in charge: Professor Clark C. Gibson, Co-Chair Professor Karen Ferree, Co-Chair Professor Ivan Evans Professor Peter Lewis Professor Phil Roeder Professor Matthew Shugart 2007 © Arthur Carl LeVan, Jr. 2007 All rights reserved. SIGNATURE PAGE The dissertation of Arthur Carl LeVan, Jr. is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm: Co-Chair Co-Chair University of California, San Diego 2007 iii DEDICATION I dedicate this dissertation to Moni, my companion in life’s great adventures who was present at the creation. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE .........................................................................................................iii DEDICATION................................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................ vii LIST OF FIGURES .........................................................................................................viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................... ix VITA................................................................................................................................xiii ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION ........................................................................ xvi Introduction......................................................................................................................... 1 NIGERIA IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE........................................................ 11 SUMMARY OF CHAPTERS ...................................................................................... 15 Chapter 1:.......................................................................................................................... 23 Government Performance: Theory and Evidence............................................................. 23 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 23 PERFORMANCE MEASURES IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE .................... 25 MEASURING GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA............................. 31 CONCLUSION............................................................................................................. 58 Chapter 2:.......................................................................................................................... 60 Does Democracy Deliver? ................................................................................................ 60 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 60 DICTATORS, DEMOCRATS, AND DEVELOPMENT ............................................ 62 REGIME TYPE AND GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE....................................... 69 TESTING REGIME TYPES: DOES DEMOCRACY DELIVER? ............................. 80 REVISITING NIGERIA’S REGIMES: WHICH ONES DELIVERED? .................... 88 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................... 119 Chapter 3:........................................................................................................................ 122 A Multi-Regime Analysis of Preferences, Institutions, and Performance...................... 122 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 122 POLITICAL PREFERENCES WITH VETOES........................................................ 124 A MULTI-REGIME MODEL .................................................................................... 132 POLICY CONSEQUENCES...................................................................................... 142 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................... 149 Chapter 4:........................................................................................................................ 151 Social Identity and Political Inclusion ............................................................................ 151 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 151 HOW DOES SOCIAL DIVERSITY IMPACT PERFORMANCE?.......................... 153 SUBNATIONAL IDENTITIES AND POLITICAL CLAIMS.................................. 156 IDENTITY AND INCLUSIVENESS ........................................................................ 163 v AN ILLUSTRATION: THE “RESOURCE CONTROL” REBELLION .................. 175 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................... 180 Chapter 5:........................................................................................................................ 182 Leverage and Logic in Nigeria’s Politics since Independence ....................................... 182 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 182 HOW MANY VETOES?............................................................................................ 183 NIGERIA’S REGIMES AND RULES, 1960 – 2003................................................. 189 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................... 244 Chapter 6:........................................................................................................................ 248 Dictators, Democrats, and Distributional Dilemmas ...................................................... 248 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 248 PARTICULARISM, PUBLIC GOODS, AND INEFFICIENCY .............................. 250 TESTING FOR DISTRIBUTIVE DILEMMAS ........................................................ 256 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................... 264 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 267 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 267 A REVIEW OF GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE ............................................... 269 VETO PLAYERS AS A CAUSAL EXPLANTION.................................................. 273 IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH ........................................................ 278 Appendix 1: Preliminary Tests on Educational Inputs and Outcomes ........................... 284 Appendix 2: Tests for Stationarity of Dependent Variables........................................... 291 Appendix 3: Policy Efficiency Model Summaries ......................................................... 294 Appendix 4: Correlation of Awaiting Trial Persons and Clearance Rate....................... 296 Appendix 5: Regions, Zones, and States ........................................................................ 297 Appendix 6: Geographical Distribution of Electoral Results ......................................... 302 Appendix 7: Tests for Stationarity of Independent Variable.......................................... 317 Works Cited .................................................................................................................... 318 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Public and Private Goods.................................................................................... 26 Table 2: Primary Student/Teacher Ratio, 1961 – 2002..................................................... 82 Table 3: Change in Number of Primary Schools, 1962 – 2002........................................ 83 Table 4: Judicial Efficiency .............................................................................................. 84 Table 5: Fiscal Discipline, 1961 – 2003 ........................................................................... 85 Table 6: Policy Efficiency of Pork Spending ................................................................... 87 Table 7: High Court of Justice Statistics........................................................................... 95 Table 8: Supreme Court Case Disposal Rate, 1989 – 1993............................................ 113 Table 9: Nigeria's Geopolitical Zones (Six Zone Configuration)................................... 162 Table 10: Identity Matrix for Nigeria ............................................................................. 168 Table 11: Presidential Election Results in the Southwest, 1999..................................... 178 Table 12: Northern Regional Veto, 1966........................................................................ 195 Table 13: Matrix Reflecting Southern Region’s Veto, 1965 .......................................... 216 Table 14: Matrix Reflecting the South’s Regional Veto, 1982 – 1983 .......................... 232 Table 15: Matrix Reflecting the South’s Regional Veto, 1999