October 2017 State Utility Forecasting Group | Energy Center at Discovery Park | Purdue University | West Lafayette, Indiana 2017 INDIANA RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES STUDY State Utility Forecasting Group Energy Center Purdue University West Lafayette, Indiana David Nderitu Douglas Gotham Liwei Lu Darla Mize Tim Phillips Paul Preckel Marco Velastegui Fang Wu October 2017 Table of Contents List of Figures .......................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. v Acronyms and Abbreviations .................................................................................................. vii Foreword……………………………… ………………………………………………. ....... .xi 1. Overview ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Trends in renewable energy consumption in the United States ....................... 1 1.2 Trends in renewable energy consumption in Indiana ...................................... 4 1.3 Cost of renewable resources .......................................................................... 10 1.4 References ...................................................................................................... 12 2. Energy from Wind ........................................................................................................ 13 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Economics of wind energy ............................................................................ 15 2.3 State of wind energy nationally ..................................................................... 20 2.4 Wind energy in Indiana .................................................................................. 26 2.5 Incentives for wind energy ............................................................................ 32 2.6 References ...................................................................................................... 34 3. Dedicated Energy Crops ............................................................................................... 37 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 37 3.2 Economics of energy crops ............................................................................ 42 3.3 State of energy crops nationally ..................................................................... 46 3.4 Energy crops in Indiana ................................................................................. 48 3.5 Incentives for energy crops ............................................................................ 51 3.6 References ...................................................................................................... 52 4. Organic Waste Biomass ................................................................................................ 55 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 55 4.2 Economics of organic waste biomass ............................................................ 57 4.3 State of organic waste biomass nationally ..................................................... 61 4.4 Organic waste biomass in Indiana ................................................................. 67 i 2017 Indiana Renewable Energy Resources Study - State Utility Forecasting Group 4.5 Incentives for organic waste biomass ............................................................ 74 4.6 References ...................................................................................................... 76 5. Solar Energy ................................................................................................................. 79 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 79 5.2 Economics of solar technologies ................................................................... 82 5.3 State of solar energy nationally ..................................................................... 86 5.4 Solar Energy in Indiana ................................................................................. 88 5.5 Incentives for solar energy ............................................................................. 90 5.6 References ...................................................................................................... 92 6. Photovoltaic Cells ......................................................................................................... 93 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 93 6.2 Economics of PV systems .............................................................................. 96 6.3 State of PV systems nationally .................................................................... 100 6.4 PV systems in Indiana .................................................................................. 104 6.5 Incentives for PV systems ............................................................................ 108 6.6 References .................................................................................................... 110 7. Hydropower ................................................................................................................ 113 7.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 113 7.2 Economics of hydropower ........................................................................... 114 7.3 State of hydropower nationally .................................................................... 117 7.4 Hydropower in Indiana ................................................................................ 122 7.5 Incentives for hydropower ........................................................................... 124 7.6 References .................................................................................................... 125 ii 2017 Indiana Renewable Energy Resources Study - State Utility Forecasting Group List of Figures 1-1 Renewable energy consumption in the U.S. (1949-2016) .............................................. 2 1-2 U.S. energy consumption by source (1949-2016) .......................................................... 2 1-3 U.S. total energy consumption by energy source in 2016 .............................................. 3 1-4 Net U.S. electricity generation by energy source in 2016 .............................................. 4 1-5 Renewables share of Indiana total energy consumption (1960-2014) ............................ 5 1-6 Renewables share of Indiana electricity generation (1990-2015) .................................. 6 1-7 Wind energy capacity in Indiana .................................................................................... 7 1-8 Estimated generating technologies capital cost ............................................................ 10 1-9 Estimated generating technologies fixed and variable O&M cost ............................... 11 2-1 Horizontal wind turbine configuration ......................................................................... 13 2-2 Estimated capital costs of various electric generation options ..................................... 16 2-3 Installed wind power project costs over time ............................................................... 17 2-4 Generating technologies O&M cost ............................................................................. 18 2-5 Average O&M costs for available data years ............................................................... 19 2-6 Average wind and wholesale electricity prices ............................................................. 20 2-7 U.S. wind capacity growth ............................................................................................ 21 2-8 Renewable portfolio standards across the U.S .............................................................. 22 2-9 Wind power capacity by state at the end of June 2017 (MW) ...................................... 23 2-10 U.S. wind share of electricity generation in 2016 ......................................................... 24 2-11 80-meter U.S. wind resource map................................................................................. 25 2-12 Wind energy capacity in Indiana .................................................................................. 26 2-13 Indiana wind speed at 100 meters height ...................................................................... 30 2-14 Indiana wind speed at 50 meters height ........................................................................ 31 3-1 Energy crops included in the 2016 Billion-Ton Report ................................................ 39 3-2 Production of energy crops at various farm-gate prices for select years ...................... 42 3-3 Supply curves of potential herbaceous energy crop production for select years under base-case assumptions ............................................................................... 43 3-4 Supply curves of potential woody energy crop production for select years under base-case assumptions .......................................................................................