FIMA Daily Insight IN FOCUS - ZAGREB STOCK EXCHANGE January 8, 2013 Stocks on ZSE traded higher today. CROBEX increased 0.24% to ZSE STOCK MARKET 1,808.40 pts while blue chip CROBEX10 gained 0.21% to 1,010.86 pts. CROBEX Last 1.808,4 Regular stock turnover amounted to HRK 14.4 million. % daily 0,24% Integrated telecom HT (HTRA CZ) topped the liquidity board collecting % YTD 3,91% HRK 4.3 million in turnover. The price increased 0.9% to HRK 210.70. CROBEX10 last 1010,9 Fertilizers producer Petrokemija (PTKMRA CZ) also came to focus again % daily 0,21% with HRK 1.5 million in turnover while price gained 5.5% to HRK 240.0. % YTD 4,05% Petrokemija was in investors’ focus few months ago, after speculations on Government selling its share of 1.7 million shares (50.6% of capital). Stock Turnov er (HRK m) 14,37 A few days ago Mladen Pejnović, head of the State Office for State Total MCAP (HRK bn) 194,39 Property Management confirmed government’s plans to privatize Source: w w w .zse.hr Petrokemija. Auto-parts producer AD Plastik (ADPLRA CZ) came to focus trading in -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% blocks. The price advanced 1% to HRK 115.99 on HRK 1.3 million in PTKM-R-A ATPL-R-A turnover. AD Plastik currently trades at P/E=7.7, P/S=0.7 and DDJH-R-A P/Bv=0.7. VPIK-R-A LKPC-R-A Tobacco and tourism Adris group preferred share (ADRSPA CZ) was VIRO-R-A KORF-R-A also in investors’ focus with HRK 0.7 million in turnover while price KNZM-R-A slipped 1.3% to HRK 262.20. Adris grupa has expressed interest in ADPL-R-A Slovenia's biggest insurer Zavarovalnica Triglav (ZVTG SV) and HT-R-A LEDO-R-A Croatia's biggest insurer Croatia osiguranje (CROSRA CZ) as part of its DLKV-R-A plan to enter the insurance market in the region. PODR-R-A RIVP-R-A Hotel holding company Valamar Adria Holding (KORFRA CZ) went up by ERNT-R-A KRAS-R-A increasing 1.4% to HRK 117.0 while collecting HRK 0.4 million in ZABA-R-A turnover. A few days ago Croatian Financial Services Supervisory agency INA-R-A (HANFA) approved the takeover bid planned by Valamar Adria Holding INGR-R-A BLJE-R-A for local hotel operator Riviera Adria (RIVPRA CZ). In takeover bid KOEI-R-A Valamar Adria Holding offered HRK 13.0 per share. Riviera Adria is the ADRS-P-A TISK-R-A largest tourism company in Croatia and owns 12% of all categorized LKRI-R-A Croatian tourism capacity, on top locations in Istria and Dubrovnik. ATGR-R-A * data is calculated using last traded price Source: www.zse.hr EVENTS SCHEDULE CROBEX 3 MONTH MOVEMENT Date Event 30-Jan-2013 ADPLRA CZ 4Q results 1.900 60 14-Feb-2013 HTRA CZ 4Q results 50 1.800 14-Feb-2013 PTKMRA CZ 4Q results 40 22-Feb-2013 ATGRRA CZ 4Q results 1.700 30 pts 20 HRK Millions Daily news headlines (more available on www.fima-securities.com): 1.600 10 Stock futures flat as earnings season begins Businesses hopeful in euro zone, but joblessness rises 1.500 0 Turnover CROBEX Greece is delivering on reforms: PM Samaras Eurozone unemployment at new high source: www.zse.hr Japan cabinet plays down Fed-style job mandate for BOJ For more information please contact us via mail [email protected] or on tel. +385 42 66 09 60 1 FIMA Daily Insight IN FOCUS - ZAGREB STOCK EXCHANGE All categories of business generate gross profits LIQUIDITY TOP 5 HT-R-A 4.323.260 HRK All categories of businesses in Croatia -- small, medium and large PTKM-R-A 1.504.375 HRK enterprises -- generated gross profits in the first nine months of 2012, ADPL-R-A 1.293.807 HRK totalling HRK 25.1 billion, or 5.6% less than in the corresponding period of ERNT-R-A 1.203.771 HRK 2011, the Financial Agency (FINA) said on Tuesday. Only small enterprises ADRS-P-A 733.895 HRK increased their gross profits, by 5.4%, while medium and large enterprises Source: w w w .zse.hr recorded declines of 11.2% and 9.4% respectively. Large companies MARKET SENTIMENT generated a total gross profit of HRK 15.3 billion, or 61.1% of the gross No. of traded stocks 72 profits of all business enterprises in Croatia. Small businesses earned HRK Increase 43 7.5 billion or 29.9% of total gross profits, while medium-sized enterprises Decrease 26 reported HRK 2.3 billion or 9% of all gross profits. Despite the economic w/o change 3 crisis, small companies managed to increase their revenue by 3% and Source: w w w .zse.hr expenditure by 2.8%. (Source: daily.tportal.hr) MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS Real GDP (Q2 2012)* -2,2% Real GDP (2011)* 0,0% Raiffeisen's Croatian mandatory pension fund co buys 6.06% of CPI ( Q2 2012)** 3,4% Ledo Unemployment ( Q2 2012) 18,2% Croatia's Raiffeisen Mandatory Pension Fund Management Company has FX RATE HRK per EUR 7,55 acquired a 6.06% stake in local ice cream and frozen food maker Ledo as FX RATE HRK per USD 5,70 part of a recent capital hike, Ledo said on Tuesday. (Source: www.limun.hr Source: w w w .dzs.hr, w w w .hnb.hr original text was published on www.seenews.com) * % change, y oy ** % change, y oy , end of period 'Clean Start' shows former govt. left behind disastrous state of CROATIA LT CREDIT RATING affairs FitchRatings: BBB- The "Clean Start" project, an analysis of the situation in 22 government Standard&Poor's: BB+ Moody's: Baa3 bodies and state companies on 1 January 2012, indicates a catastrophic Source: w w w .hnb.hr state of affairs with huge dubiosities and no signs of reform or restructuring, was said on Monday at a presentation of the project. The incoming MIDPOINT EXCHANGE RATES OF THE CNB government encountered in the sector of maritime affairs, transport and infrastructure, which is the worst off, a debt of HRK 68.8 billion, sovereign 8,0 subventions of HRK 5.7 billion and losses of HRK 1.2 billion. The health sector owed HRK 5.7 billion and a further HRK 677 million of non-registered 7,0 long term dues. The situation as it was cannot be resolved quickly because 6,0 at the same time Croatia is required to reduce its budget deficit and so the government will implement fiscal consolidation and deal with its debts in 5,0 installments over the next few years, he said. The "Clean Start" project 4,0 recommends that the government urgently introduce a series of measures to deal with the situation, including the standardisation of keeping records, centralised public procurement, a unified IT system, urgent monitoring of HRK-EUR HRK-USD Source: www.hnb.hr spending by the Croatian Health Insurance Institute and hospitals, and For more information please contact us via mail [email protected] or on tel. +385 42 66 09 60 2 coming up with a unified model of management of government assets. (Source: daily.tportal.hr) FIMA Daily Insight IN FOCUS - ZAGREB STOCK EXCHANGE CROATIAN EQUITIES (FUNDAMENTAL MULTIPLES) Average Mk cap Mk cap P/E P/S P/Bv EV/EBITDA EV/S Yd price (HRK) (HRK m) (EUR m) 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2011 2012 Industry AD Plastik 115,3 484,1 64 8,9 8,0 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,7 6,2 5,3 1,0 1,0 6,5% 6,9% Adris Grupa (preferred)* 262,2 4.665,1 616 10,0 9,4 1,7 1,7 0,6 0,6 7,9 8,2 1,8 1,8 2,7% 2,7% ĐuroĐaković 81,1 262,5 35 -5,1 28,3 1,0 0,3 1,0 1,0 -19,8 15,4 1,8 0,5 0,0% 0,0% Ericsson Nikola Tesla 1412,9 1.881,5 249 78,2 67,3 1,5 1,6 1,8 2,2 29,2 37,3 1,0 1,2 13,4% 12,0% INA 3948,6 39.486,3 5.216 41,3 21,9 1,5 1,3 3,1 2,7 12,5 8,6 1,9 1,6 1,2% 0,0% Končar DiST 931,8 245,6 32 6,6 7,3 0,4 0,4 1,5 1,4 2,7 4,6 0,2 0,3 5,9% 5,7% Končar Elektroindustrija 653,4 1.680,5 222 9,0 9,1 0,7 0,7 0,9 0,9 5,9 7,2 0,6 0,8 1,8% 1,8% Petrokemija 238,3 796,3 105 -5,9 7,5 0,4 0,3 1,2 1,0 -792,9 5,0 0,5 0,4 0,0% 0,0% Food Belje 71,3 586,0 77 -9,3 -6,3 0,5 0,4 0,5 0,6 8,2 6,5 0,7 0,5 0,0% 0,0% Čakovečki mlinovi 3250,2 341,3 45 18,1 47,2 0,3 0,3 0,7 0,7 8,7 10,5 0,4 0,5 4,0% 2,3% Jamnica 41010,0 907,4 120 8,9 9,0 0,8 0,8 1,1 1,0 5,4 5,5 0,9 0,8 0,0% 0,0% Kraš 357,3 490,7 65 25,2 19,6 0,5 0,5 0,8 0,7 8,1 8,1 0,7 0,7 5,6% 3,6% Ledo 7751,7 1.706,7 225 16,8 13,5 1,6 1,4 2,3 2,0 14,1 11,0 1,6 1,4 0,0% 0,0% Podravka 248,3 1.345,9 178 16,0 19,4 0,4 0,4 0,8 0,8 5,8 7,5 0,6 0,7 0,0% 0,0% Viro 591,1 819,6 108 32,5 6,3 0,7 0,6 1,3 1,3 12,7 5,3 1,1 0,9 6,3% 0,0% Vupik 104,1 156,7 21 1,5 2,7 1,1 0,6 0,3 0,3 1,5 1,8 1,9 0,8 0,0% 0,0% Zvijezda 3733,3 374,3 49 17,1 9,1 0,4 0,3 0,5 0,4 6,9 5,3 0,4 0,4 0,0% 0,0% Telecom HT-Hrvatske Telekomunikacije 209,2 17.127,0 2.262 9,4 9,5 2,0 2,1 1,5 1,6 3,9 3,8 1,7 1,7 10,9% 10,6% Construction Dalekovod 69,3 198,6 26 216,5 -0,7 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,3 6,8 -6,6 0,5 1,0 0,0% 0,0% Hidroelektra Niskogradnja 98,3 61,3 8 35,3 61,4 0,1 0,1 0,3 0,3 4,8 5,1 0,2 0,2 0,0% 0,0% Institut IGH 486,1 77,1 10 8,4 47,9 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,2 7,2 10,9 1,1 1,3 0,0% 0,0% Ingra 3,4 45,4 6 -0,5 -0,5 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1 -16,8 -36,0 2,9 4,7 0,0% 0,0% Tehnika 746,5 141,4 19 12,1 145,1 0,2 0,2 0,4 0,4 14,2 68,1 0,7 1,0 0,0% 0,0% Viadukt 349,0 159,4 21 -52,5 76,1 0,2 0,2 1,1 0,8 4,4 4,9 0,3 0,3 0,0% 0,0% Transportation Atlantska Plovidba 230,2 321,2 42 8,3 22,6 0,4 0,6 0,2 0,2 4,6 4,9 1,5 2,0 0,0% 0,0% Jadranski naftovod 2355,0 1.749,4 231 16,4 24,1 4,1 4,3 0,5 0,5 6,0 6,4 3,8 3,8 2,5% 0,0% Luka Ploče 573,4 242,5 32 15,5 9,2 1,6 1,6 1,2 0,6 8,2 14,8 1,3 1,8 0,0% 0,0% Luka Rijeka 117,8 704,4 93 21.625 5,8 3,8 4,3 2,0 1,5 41,2 69,6 4,0 4,2 0,0% 0,0% Uljanik Plovidba 201,4 116,8 15 1,2 -14,9 0,5 0,6 0,2 0,2 6,1 15,4 4,0 6,3 30,3% 0,0% Retail&Wholesale Atlantic Grupa 574,0 1.913,9 253 17,9 34,9 0,8 0,4 1,3 1,3 18,1 7,8 1,8 0,8 0,0% 0,0% Konzum 144,4 3.278,1 433 7,9 9,5 0,3 0,3 1,5 1,3 3,5 3,5 0,3 0,3 1,2% 0,0% Tourism HUP - Zagreb 1075,0 487,3 64 20,0 -7,0 2,1 2,1 0,6 0,8 12,2 -18,4 4,1 2,7 1,6% 1,4% Istraturist Umag 178,0 832,1 110 -29,5 37,2 2,2 2,0 1,2 1,1 11,2 10,0 3,5 3,1 0,0% 0,0% Liburnia Riviera Hoteli 1780,0 538,7 71 -11,2 101,0 2,8 2,7 0,6 0,6 -42,3 12,5 2,6 2,5 0,0% 0,0% Maistra 64,5 705,8 93 -49,3 -95,6 1,4 1,2 0,7 0,8 5,1 4,3 1,4 1,2 0,0% 0,0% Plava Laguna 1961,0 1.185,7 157 19,7 14,5 2,5 2,3 0,8 0,8 7,0 6,0 2,6 2,4 4,6% 4,6% Valamar Adria Holding 115,8 864,3 114 -8,9 -29,1 1,1 1,0 0,4 0,4 13,7 10,3 2,9 2,4 0,0% 0,0% “ - “ stands for negative value of multiple * multiples for Adris Group calculated on diluted basis For more information please contact us via mail [email protected] or on tel.