VU Research Portal European Integration and National Elections de Vries, C.E. 2007 document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in VU Research Portal citation for published version (APA) de Vries, C. E. (2007). European Integration and National Elections: The Impact of EU Issue Voting on National Electoral Politics. Faculty of Social Sciences Vrije Universiteit. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. E-mail address: [email protected] Download date: 02. Oct. 2021 EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AND NATIONAL ELECTIONS: The Impact of EU Issue Voting on National Electoral Politics Reading Committee: Prof. dr. J.E. Keman Prof. dr. C.J. van Kersbergen Prof. dr. M.R. Steenbergen Prof. dr. B. Weßels © Catherine E. de Vries, 2007 ISBN 978-90-9022112-0 All rights reserved. Save exceptions stated by law, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system of any nature, or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, included a complete or partial transcription, without the prior written permission of the proprietor. Photos by Xavier Pironet (top) and Wai Heng Chow (bottom) Cover design by S. van der Ploeg, Room for ID's, Nieuwegein Printed by PrintPartners Ipskamp, Enschede VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AND NATIONAL ELECTIONS: The Impact of EU Issue Voting on National Electoral Politics ACADEMISCH PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad Doctor aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, op gezag van de rector magnificus prof.dr. L.M. Bouter, in het openbaar te verdedigen ten overstaan van de promotiecommissie van de faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen op donderdag 27 september 2007 om 15.45 uur in de aula van de universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105 door Catherine Eunice de Vries geboren te Zwolle promotor: Prof. dr. E.A.E.B. Hooghe copromotor: Prof. dr. G.W. Marks In loving memory of my mother Johanna Netjes-Schuurman European Integration and National Elections: Table of Contents Table of Contents Acknowledgements 13 Chapter 1: Europe at the National Ballot Box? Introducing a model of EU issue voting 15 1.1 Setting the scene: From permissive consensus to constraining dissensus 16 1.2 Background: Theories of European integration 18 1.3 Research questions, case selection and data 20 1.4 Model of EU issue voting 23 1.5 Main findings and conclusions 27 1.6 EU issue voting and the future of European integration 30 1.7 Where do we go from here? 33 1.8 Notes 36 Chapter 2: Who’s Cueing Whom? Mass-elite linkages and the future of European integration 39 2.1 Introduction 41 2.2 The politics of European integration: Two views 42 2.3 A conditional dual-process model 45 2.4 Data, operationalisations and methods 49 2.5 Empirical analysis 52 2.6 Concluding remarks 57 2.7 Notes 60 vii European Integration and National Elections: Table of Contents Chapter 3 : Sleeping Giant: Fact or Fairytale? How European integration affects national elections 63 3.1 Introduction 65 3.2 The conditional nature of EU issue voting 66 3.3 The role of extremist political entrepreneurs in the EU issue voting process 68 3.4 Data, operationalisations and methods 70 3.5 Empirical analysis 73 3.6 Concluding remarks 82 3.7 Notes 84 Chapter 4 : Why Do Issues Become Relevant to Voters? The role of issue orthogonality in EU issue voting 87 4.1 Introduction 89 4.2 Conceptualising the role of issue orthogonality in EU issue voting 90 4.3 Data, operationalisations and methods 95 4.4 Empirical analysis 98 4.5 Concluding remarks 104 4.6 Notes 106 Chapter 5 : EU Issue Voting: Asset or Liability? How European integration affects parties’ electoral fortunes in national elections 109 5.1 Introduction 111 5.2 Conceptualising EU issue voting 113 5.3 EU issue voting and the electoral fortunes of political parties 114 5.4 Data, operationalisations and methods 118 5.5 Empirical analysis 122 5.6 Concluding remarks 127 5.7 Notes 129 viii European Integration and National Elections: Table of Contents Chapter 6 : The Salience of the European Integration Issue: Three data sources compared 131 6.1 Introduction 133 6.2 Why salience? 134 6.3 Measuring salience 136 6.4 Cross-validation 138 6.5 Salience of the European integration issue: Some expectations 140 6.6 Empirical analysis: Convergent and construct validity 142 6.7 Concluding remarks 151 6.8 Notes 153 Appendices 155 Appendix I: Full results of chapter 3 157 Appendix II: Full results of chapter 4 169 Appendix III: Party list and full results of chapter 5 183 Appendix IV: Variable description of chapter 6 195 References 197 Samenvatting 215 ix Eur opean Integration and National Elections: List of Tables and Figures List of Tables and Figures Tables Table 2.1: Mass elite linkages and the EU – simple models 53 Table 2.2: Mass-elite linkages and electoral context 55 Table 2.3: Mass-elite linkages and party (system) attributes 56 Table 2.4: Mass-elite linkages and opinion leadership 57 Table 3.1: Dependent and independent variable(-s) description 72-3 Table 3.2: Partisan conflict on left/right and pro-/anti-EU dimensions 74 Table 3.3: Conditional logit results 77-8 Table 4.1: Dependent and independent variable(-s) description 98 Table 4.2: Degree of issue orthogonality 99 Table 4.3: Degree of perceived partisan conflict 100 Table 4.4: Degree of issue salience 101 Table 4.5: Conditional logit results 103 Table 5.1: Dependent and independent variable(-s) description 120-1 Table 5.2: The effect of EU preferences on vote choice 122-3 Table 5.3: Explaining variation in extent of EU issue voting 125 Table 6.1: Correlating three salience measures 146 Table 6.2: Convergent validity: Principal component analysis 147 Table 6.3: Explaining salience: Baseline model 149 Table 6.4: Explaining salience: Full-specified model 150 x European Integration and National Elections: List of Tables and Figures Figures Figure 1.1: Model of EU issue voting 24 Figure 3.1: EU issue salience 76 Figure 3.2: EU issue salience of eurosceptic extremist parties 81 Figure 4.1: Incorporation of issues into dominant conflict dimension 93 Figure 4.2: Conditional model of EU issue voting 94 Figure 5.1: Extent of EU issue voting across political parties 124 Figure 6.1: Box plot: Salience Expert Survey, by country 143 Figure 6.2: Box plot: Salience Manifesto Project, by country 144 Figure 6.3: Box plot: Salience European Election Study, by country 144 xi European Integration and National Elections: Acknowledgements Acknowledgements When embarking on a dissertation project, one is often warned that while the journey is interesting and exciting, it also constitutes a lonely endeavour filled with obstacles. While I never doubted my ability to solve the many challenges ahead, I initially had my doubts about being able to go the path alone. In hindsight, however, I have to say that this fear was unfounded; the process of writing my dissertation was never a solo enterprise. Many people have been a part of it along the way. Some were actively involved in the project, while others kept me on course and lent a helping hand in times of doubt or discouragement. Although these words can never fully express my gratitude, I would like to thank some of you. I would like to begin by thanking my supervisors, Liesbet Hooghe and Gary Marks. Your supervision has been simply excellent. Not only have you shared your extensive knowledge and experience with me, but you have taught me that the heart of science is to ask the right questions and that the essence of most answers is simplicity. These are two important insights that I will always remember. I feel that I have been able to stand on the shoulders of giants, and for this opportunity I am truly grateful. In addition, I would like to thank my co-authors: Harmen Binnema, Erica Edwards and Marco Steenbergen. Two articles in this dissertation could not have been written without your extensive input. Having people keep you on your toes by constantly questioning your ideas and assumptions not only enhances the quality of scientific work, but it also enhances one’s own curiosity and enthusiasm. These mutual projects have been as instructive as they have been inspiring. I look forward to many more in the future. Thirdly, I would like to thank my colleagues at the Department of Political Science at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, not only for allowing me to exchange scientific ideas and thoughts, but also for providing an extremely pleasant working environment. The peer teaching group, consisting of both PhD students and student assistants, deserves a special mentioning here since many draft versions of the articles included in this manuscript have been discussed at length in this forum. Also, a special thank you goes to Lawrence Ezrow and Barbara Vis for their input and support over the past years.