BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE GUIDE TO In collaboration with: INVESTING IN POLAND 2019 Real Estate for a changing world THE TALLEST BUILDING IN EUROPEAN UNION IS DO YOU KNOW... BUILT IN WARSAW The Varso Place complex, which is under construction in the Warsaw’s Central Business District, will be composed of three office buildings, the highest of which is going to reach 310 meters. The top 27.0M 34.0M 45.9M floors will offer restaurant 27.0M 34.0M 45.9M 40% and publicly available 40% panoramic terrace. 2014 2016 2018 Growth of warehouse 2014 2016 2018 stock in 2017 – 2018 OVER FIVE YEARS WHERE YOU CAN FIND AIR TRAFFIC IN POLAND ONE OF THE LARGEST GREW BY 69% WAREHOUSES IN EUROPE? In 2018 Polish 14 international Improving road infrastructure, good land airports recorded increases availability and competitive labour costs of activity and altogether handled have fuelled the boom in the logistics almost 46m passengers. market in Poland. Only in two years the The largest airport in Central Europe total warehouse stock grew by 40% and – Warsaw Chopin Airport served over reached 15.7 m2. Today the e-commerce 17.8m people what translates into 13% giant, Amazon, operates in Poland five growth y-o-y. modern, international fulfilment centres, with further locations in the pipeline. €7.3bn %73% transacted in 2018 73 THE RECORD VOLUME OF NEARLY POLAND IS ONE OF THE TOP €7.3BN WAS TRANSACTED IN 2018 PERFORMERS IN TERMS OF Real estate total transaction volume reached WELL-BEING GROWTH. nearly €7.3bn in 2018, surpassing the record According to BCG’s Sustainable Economic of the previous year by 43%. For the last Development Assessment (SEDA) Poland is three years it has been observed steady one of the top performing country in terms intensifying interest from Asian investors, of well-being growth. Improvements of such as from Malaysia, China, Singapore and categories such as Income, Employment, South Korea. Infrastructure allow to move upwards in the well-being ranking over the last decade. Poland, starting at a much lower level, has surpassed Greece and almost caught up with Italy. 4 INVESTING IN POLAND – 2019 BNP Paribas Real Estate BNP Paribas Real Estate 2019 – INVESTING IN POLAND 5 POLAND FOREWORD BY NUMBERS Poland POPULATION1 POLAND WILL CONTINUE INVESTMENT MARKET2 PROPERTY MARKET2 TO BE ON THE RIGHT TRACK 38.4m 2 The largest population 10.4m m OFFICE €7.3bn across the CEE markets, 2 NO. 1 CAPITAL 6th largest country in EU RETAIL DESTINATION IN CEE 14.6m m In terms of volumes 2 WAREHOUSE invested in real estate 15.7m m in Central Europe across Poland, which offer a wide scope of investment opportunities. TRI-CITY Due to highly skilled and educated employees proficient in numerous languages, Poland has Olsztyn EU FUNDS SZCZECIN become the BPO/SSC hub in Europe, for banking, (2014-2020 BUDGET) Bydgoszcz financial and ITC sectors in particular. With Toruń Białystok MARCIN KLAMMER a steady growth in the number of BPO / SSC Gorzów Wlkp. Chief Executive Officer locations, Poland has been steadily fortifying its €75bn net POZNAŃ Central and Eastern Europe leading position in the region. The largest beneficiary WARSAW BNP Paribas Real Estate of EU funding For a couple of years the buoyant Polish ŁÓDŹ economy, e-commerce growth and globalization Zielona Góra Over the last five years the Polish economy of trading and manufacturing has been Radom grew exponentially by 22% and has enhanced 4 WROCŁAW boosting development of the industrial and INFLOW OF FDI Częstochowa Lublin its positive perception among investors. logistics segment. In addition, due to a steady Kielce Opole Although we will most probably see a lower improvement of the road infrastructure, new $12bn GDP growth in 2019 relative to 2018, there is logistics clusters have emerged, i.e. the western KATOWICE Average of $12bn over pocket of positives, such as steady growth of belt of Poland, along the Polish-German the last four years KRAKÓW Rzeszów employment and wages, inflow of new FDIs, border, which captures interest of numerous stable industrial production and retail sales e-commerce operators in particular. Bielsko-Biała growing at a fast pace, which allow us to believe GDP GROWTH5 Even the retail segment, albeit the ban on that prospects are very promising. Sunday trading has generated the uncertainty 2016 The Polish real estate sector enters 2019 with in this industry, performs well due to the 3.6% TOP BPO/SSC/R&D NUMBER OF CITIES ABOVE very strong fundamentals. In 2018 investors huge general growth of purchasing power and LOCATION3 400,000 INHABITANTS1 Warsaw, Kraków, Tri-City, deployed an all – time record volume of nearly household spending. 2017 4.9% Łódź, Wrocław, Poznań, €7.3 billion. In particular, a 60% surge in logistics The country with its strategic location connects Szczecin, Katowice* investments proved that investors have realized 1,236 centres 8 the West with the East and provides a wide 2018 employing 279,000 people the untapped potential of the Polish market 5.1% Cities with population spectrum of opportunities for businesses from and their appetite for products is expected 200-400k inhabitants diversified segments – from industrial and *conurbation to remain high. Importantly, it is not only 1. GUS 2017 / 2. BNP Paribas Real Estate H2 2017 / 7 logistics to PropTech solutions and innovations. 3. “Business Service Sector in Poland 2018” ABSL / Warsaw that attracts global investors, but 4. World Investment report / 5. National Bank of Poland, Cities with population there is a wide pool of other regional markets Poland is the place to invest. preliminary figure for 2018 16 100-200k inhabitants 6 INVESTING IN POLAND – 2019 BNP Paribas Real Estate BNP Paribas Real Estate 2019 – INVESTING IN POLAND 7 POLAND OVERVIEW TOP 6 REASONS TO INVEST IN POLAND 1 2 3 THE LARGEST STRONG DOMESTIC POLYCENTRIC ECONOMY IN CEE MARKET STRUCTURE AND WELL Poland holds the leading Sizeable population coupled DEVELOPED TRANSPORT position in the CEE region with falling unemployment INFRASTRUCTURE 4 5 6 in terms of GDP. The size of and rising purchasing power While Warsaw still remains national economy has doubled which is strongly fuelled by the key business centre of the since Poland accessed EU in climbing wages and growth of country, Poland has many strong SKILLED ESTABLISHED TOP BPO/SSC/IT/R&D 2004. Over the last decade, social benefits has propelled regional clusters. Other major LABOUR POOL AT PROPERTY MARKET LOCATION IN EUROPE GDP per capita expressed in domestic demand. Purchasing metropolises such as Kraków, COMPETITIVE COST Although the modern Over the course of the last Purchasing Power Standards Power in Poland has grown by Wrocław, Tri-City, Katowice, The proportion of people property market in Poland six years the number of service climbed from 50% of EU 23%, compared to 2013. Poznań, Łódź, and even smaller with higher education level started to develop just 25 centres in Poland increased average to 70% in 2017*. regional cities such as Bydgoszcz, reached 27% in 2018. Backed years ago, today it embraces more than 3 times, and at the Toruń, Rzeszów and Bielsko-Biała by almost 400 universities, a wide selection of modern beginning of 2018 reached among others, have developed Poland offers a large pool of assets in all sectors. A variety 1,236, of which 748 were of business friendly environments skilled, talented and foreign of projects in all categories foreign origin. At the same and have attracted many speaking professionals for all offers plenty of opportunities time, the number of jobs in foreign investors. Improved business sectors. for both occupiers and the business services sector road infrastructure gives easy investors. Underpinned by tripled and achieved 278,000. connections to Western and solid occupier demand which employees. ABSL forecasts Eastern markets. translates into healthy vacancy that total employment in the levels, the market develops outsourcing sector in 2020 will at a stable rate. exceed 340,000 jobs. *Eurostat 8 INVESTING IN POLAND – 2019 BNP Paribas Real Estate BNP Paribas Real Estate 2019 – INVESTING IN POLAND 9 POLAND OVERVIEW POLAND BIG EIGHT WARSAW OVER THE PAST TWO DECADES WARSAW HAS EVOLVED RAPIDLY INTO A BUSTLING ECO- NOMIC CENTRE OF CENTRAL EUROPE REGION. Numerous banks and financial services, interna- tional business and management consultancies, Galeria Młociny by Echo Investment and EPP, a large shopping & leisure complex, will open in Warsaw in Q2 2019. insurance companies, media and advertising agencies, research institutes, law firms and retail sectors. It offers the largest stock of modern companies, among others, have been attracted by office, retail and warehouse / logistics space and the growing economic strength, friendly business provides a solid occupier base for all property environment and thriving property market of the a new bridge to the south of the city, all trigger 1,770,000 types. Last year Warsaw’s office stock exceeded Population1 (2,597,000*) city, strongly fuelling further economic develop- transformation of the capital and the entire region 5.4 million sq m, with further 740,000 sq m in the ment of Warsaw. and create new business locations. Passenger air construction phase and planned delivery spread transport, served by two airports, has been re- evenly over the next 36 months. Best ever take- 1.5% Improvements in the transport infrastructure, 2 cording two-digit growths for a couple of years. up volume recorded in 2018 coupled with dilut- Unemployment rate those already carried out and those still ongo- ed new supply have caused a steep drop in the ing, such as extension of ring roads and motor- The property market in Warsaw is the most vacancy rate in the office sector, which now stands ways, the second metro line and construction of established one across the CEE capitals in all at 5.5 pp less than at its peak two years ago.