Palestinian Public Opinion: Trends and Strategic Implications September 2009 International Peace Institute with Charney Research Key Points Findings of the IPI poll of 2,402 Palestinians in West Bank and Gaza between Jun 23 and Jul 17 include: •Palestinians want a two-state solution and are ready to be peace partners with Israel to get it. •The Arab Peace Initiative greatly strengthens the appeal of the two- state solution. •Palestinians are skeptical of America and Obama – but many hope he can advance the peace process. •The main gestures discussed in Washington and Jerusalem – a settlement freeze and reducing checkpoints – are the least important to Palestinians of six confidence-building measures. •Palestinian elections would be close, but Abbas and Fatah would benefit from progress on national unity, security, sector reform, and the peace process. •Fatah is seen as the party of governance and peace – Hamas now only as the party of resistance, which also resonates with Palestinians. International Peace Institute with Charney Research Palestinians want a two-state solution, though many would consider a provisional state. Here are several options for a Palestinian state. Please tell me which option you would prefer most. A Palestinian state with final A Palestinian State in the West Bank borders including land swaps and Gaza, separate from Israel 55% alongside the Israeli state now with all other issues such as Jerusalem, 37% refugees, and settlements to be negotiated One state shared by both Status quo continues until all these 11% Palestinians and Israelis issues have been negotiated and 27% agreed A Palestinian state with provisional Palestine joins a confederation with borders alongside the Israeli state Jordan and Egypt with shared 11% now with all other issues such as 14% defense and foreign policy Jerusalem, refugees, and settlements to be negotiated International Peace Institute 3 Q. 130, 129 with Charney Research Two thirds of Palestinians support the Arab Peace Initiative – and a two- state peace plan as a way to implement it. The Arab Peace Initiative calls for: Comparing this plan to implement the Arab •Israeli withdrawal from lands occupied in 1967, according to Peace Initiative as a package to the status UN resolution 242; quo, do you strongly prefer this plan, •The creation of a Palestinian state on those lands; somewhat prefer this plan, somewhat prefer •Resolution of the refugee problem according to UN resolution 194 and; the status quo, or strongly prefer the status •Arab recognition of Israel. quo? Comparing the Arab Peace Initiative to the status quo, do you (Details on next slide) strongly prefer this plan, somewhat prefer this plan, somewhat prefer the status quo, or strongly prefer the status quo? 66% 64% 18% 17% Prefer Arab Peace Prefer status quo Prefer this plan Prefer status quo Initiative International Peace Institute 4 Q. 131, 133 with Charney Research A two-state peace plan based on the Taba and Geneva Accords commands broad, and on all but one point, majority support. Here are parts of a possible deal to implement the Arab Peace Initiative and establish two separate states of Palestine and Israel. Favor Oppose Under UN Res 242, withdrawal from all Gaza and West Bank, except 4% land swap for some settlements. 56% 42% East Jerusalem Palestine’s capital, with Arab neighborhoods, including in Old City, 46% 52% and Temple Mount; Jewish neighborhoods, Jewish Quarter, Wailing Wall to Israel. Palestine has strong internal security forces and, after five years’ calm, an Army; until then Jordanian, Egyptian troops ensure security. 53% 44% Refugees’ right of return and compensation recognized under UN Res 194. Host countries, Israel, and 3rd countries decide residency. Return to Palestine free, Israel admits as many as Australia, Canada, and European countries. 69% 27% Compensation paid for lost property and possessions Plan’s implementation ends conflict and claims. Palestine will be sovereign state. Palestine and Israel recognize each other diplomatically and as homelands of their 56% 38% peoples. International Peace Institute 5 Q. 132 with Charney Research Palestinians’ acceptance of the peace plan is a big change from 2000, when they rejected similar post-Camp David deals. 2000 2009 Israeli withdrawal Reject Accept From 96% of WB/G, 4% land swap Refugees Recognize Res 194, most return to Accept Accept Palestinian state, compensation for losses Reject Accept Demilitarization No Air force or heavy No army for 5 yrs, weapons, Israelis on Jordan international force Jerusalem divided Reject Reject East as capital, includes Haram es Large margin Narrowly Sharif End of Conflict Reject Accept Mutual recognition, no further claims International Peace Institute 6 Q. 132 with Charney Research Most Palestinians remain skeptical of the US and President Obama, but many are hopeful that he will significantly advance the peace process. What is your opinion of: Do you think US President Barack Obama will make significant progress on promoting peace between The United States Barack Obama Palestine and Israel based on two states? 80% 69% 5 6% 41 % 27% 16% Favorable Unfavorable Favora ble Unfavorable L ik ely U n likely International Peace Institute 7 Q. 98, 99, 116 with Charney Research Getting rid of settlement/outposts and freeing prisoners matter more to Palestinians than ending settlement growth or cutting checkpoints. Here are several steps that could be taken to advance the peace process. Please tell me which issue you think is most important All West Bank Gaza Evacuation of settlements/outposts 28% 35% 16% Release of prisoners 27% 23% 34% Further withdrawal from the West Bank 13% 13% 13% Easing of border crossing 11% 9% 15% Halting demolitions and settlement building 7% 4% 11% activity Easing of checkpoints 6% 6% 6% International Peace Institute 8 Q. 128 with Charney Research Political division concerns Palestinians most, followed by the economy, insecurity, Israeli occupation, and the Gaza blockade. What is the biggest problem facing Palestine? (Responses given by 10% or more) 44% 40% 33% 31% 30% 23% 20% 0% Political division/ Economic Insecurity/Crime Israeli Occupation Blockade/Gaza conflict problems International Peace Institute 9 Q. 3 with Charney Research President Abbas has majority job approval, while ratings are split on Prime Minister Fayyad and negative for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the following political figures handle their jobs? Mahmoud Abbas as President? Salam Fayyad as Prime Minister? Ismail Haniyeh as Hamas leader? 64% 55 % 4 6% 51% 41% 32% Satisfie d Dissatisfied Sa tisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied International Peace Institute 10 Q. 5, 6, 7 with Charney Research Fatah leads Hamas in the PLC party vote, but a majority depends on don’t- knows, potential switchers, and the electoral system. Presidential Vote Preference Willingness to Switch Vote Fatah 45% Mind made up 71% Hamas 24% Third Way 3% Democratic Front for Refused the Liberation of Palestine 6% Don't know/refused PNI 3% 2% Don't know Could change 13% 5% Palestine Islamic 18% Independent Jihad 2% Nationalist 6% Pop. Front for Liberation of Pal 2% International Peace Institute 11 Q. 50, 51 with Charney Research Abbas leads Haniyeh on the presidential vote, but the close split on his re-election suggests he would face a tight race. Presidential Vote Preference Re-election Vote Preference Mahmoud Re-elect Abbas Abbas 52% 50% Ismail Haniyeh 22% Don't know Elect Neither/ Other 6% someone Don't know 3% else 23% 44% International Peace Institute 12 Q. 48, 52 with Charney Research Fatah leads on peace, unity, the economy, and leadership – while Hamas leads only on the issue of resistance. Leader Attributes Best Party for Issues Improving Peace-Maker 42% 21% Palestine's 45% 21% Economy Reaching Peace Unif ier 36% 20% 44% 12% witih Israel Independent Ge t T hings 36% 24% 34% 19% D o ne Palestinian State Cares About Improving Human People Like 34% 20% 33% 18% Yo u Rights A St ro ng Reunifying Gaza 32% 25% 31% 12% Lea de r and West Bank Resistance to R es ister 23% 36% 29% 36% Israel Abbas/Fatah Haniyeh/Hamas International Peace Institute 13 Q. 54 with Charney Research Palestinians are split on the UN, negative on UNSCO, but hold UNRWA in high regard. What is your opinion of the following international organizations? The United Nations UNSCO UNRWA 70% 56% 48% 50% 42% 29% Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable International Peace Institute 14 Q. 95-97 with Charney Research Jordan, UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are the most popular neighbors among Palestinians. What is your opinion of the following countries? (Percent Favorable) 100% 81% 80% 79% 76% 74% 80% 69% 68% 62% 61% 60% 50% 40% 20% 0% UAE Iran Qatar Egypt Syria Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Saudi Arabia International Peace Institute 15 Q. 102, 104-112 with Charney Research Views of major Western powers and Israel are not favorable, though the EU is well liked, particularly in Gaza. What is your opinion of the following countries and international organizations? (Percent Favorable) 60% 54% 40% 21% 18% 16% 20% 6% 0% The European France Britain The United States Israel Union International Peace Institute 16 Q. 113, 103, 101, 100, 98 with Charney Research Who are Palestine’s enemies? Who are its friends? Who are both? Who do you perceive as Palestine’s Who do you perceive as Palestine’s closest ally in the region? greatest threat in the region? •Egypt: 23% •Israel: 76% •Nobody: 15% •USA: 9% •Jordan: 14% •Iran: 6% •Other: 4% •Iran: 12% •Jordan: 3% •Syria: 11% •Nobody: 1% •Saudi Arabia: 8% •UAE: 8% •Qatar: 4% International Peace Institute 17 Q. 114 & 115 with Charney Research .