ABSTRACT Title of Document: THE IMPACT OF MACRO LEVEL GRIEVANCE RESOLUTION ON TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN SOUTH AFRICA. Mischelle Louise Van Brakle, PhD, 2012 Directed By: Professor Gary LaFree In this dissertation, I examined the relationship between two socio-legal and two political macro level reforms in South Africa on levels of anti-apartheid, separatist and unknown terrorism and fatalities. These reforms were the repeal of the pass laws, the repeal of the race classification system, the legalization of formerly outlawed political parties and the first democratic election. The results suggest that socio-legal reforms were associated with temporary increases from separatist and unknown groups. As for the political reforms, the election was associated with decreases in unknown terrorist attacks and fatalities from all three group types. Recognizing the potential for violence from groups losing power is critical to developing effective counter-terrorism strategies, particularly when transitioning from authoritarian to more democratic governance structures. THE IMPACT OF MACRO LEVEL GRIEVANCE RESOLUTION ON TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN SOUTH AFRICA By Mischelle Louise Van Brakle Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2012 Advisory Committee: Professor Gary LaFree, Chair Professor Sally Simpson Professor Raymond Paternoster Professor Laura Dugan Professor Jonathan Wilkenfeld © Copyright by Mischelle Louise Van Brakle 2012 Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to my mother, Emily Jean Van Brakle. Although she passed away before I completed the work, she was never far from my thoughts. ii Acknowledgements I first have to thank my advisor, Dr. Gary LaFree, for his constant and unwavering support throughout this process. I could not have asked for a more patient dissertation director. I also want to thank Dr. Sally Simpson and the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice for the generous support they provided. I am also appreciative of my committee, without whom I would not have been able to complete the dissertation, especially Dr. Laura Dugan, who provided me with invaluable guidance and advice. I am also grateful for being blessed with a wonderful family, especially my husband, Will, and my son, Dominic, who were there for all the ups and downs associated with working on a dissertation. I would not have been able to finish had it not been for the love and support I received. Of course, I have to thank my amazing friends as well, especially Erica, Toni, Dondi, and Lance, who were there from the beginning to the end. Finally, I want to thank my mother for instilling in me the value of hard work – without her inspiration, I would not have been able to finish this project. iii Table of Contents Dedication ..................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ............................................................................................................. vii Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 Statement of the Problem .......................................................................................... 1 Overview of the Present Study ................................................................................. 2 Relevance of the Present Study ................................................................................. 4 Distinguishing between Race and Ethnicity ............................................................. 5 Ethnicity in South Africa .......................................................................................... 8 Afrikanerdom: Early Development of the Afrikaner Identity .............................. 8 The Influence of the British on Afrikaner Hegemony ........................................ 10 Legal, Social and Political Precursors to Apartheid in the Union of South Africa ............................................................................................................................. 12 Mobilization of the Afrikaner Ethnicity (1910-1948) ........................................ 14 The Apartheid Apparatus .................................................................................... 16 Promoting Ethnicity within the Bantustans ........................................................ 18 The Zulu Ethnic Identity ..................................................................................... 19 The African National Congress and Opposition to Apartheid ............................ 21 Summary and Overview of the Forthcoming Chapters .......................................... 22 Chapter 2: Theoretical Conceptualizations ................................................................. 23 Overview ................................................................................................................. 23 The Concept of Terrorism ....................................................................................... 23 Ethnic Conflict and Terrorism ................................................................................ 25 Ethnicity and Conflict ......................................................................................... 25 Ethnicity and Terrorism ...................................................................................... 27 Theories of Intergroup Conflict .............................................................................. 30 Overview ............................................................................................................. 30 Power Threat Hypothesis .................................................................................... 31 Process Model for Anticipating Ethnic Conflict ................................................. 33 Summary ................................................................................................................. 37 Chapter 3: Review of the Literature ............................................................................ 38 Overview ................................................................................................................. 38 Application of the Process Model for Anticipating Ethnic Conflict................... 49 Summary ................................................................................................................. 51 Chapter 4: Present Focus ............................................................................................ 52 Overview ................................................................................................................. 52 Previous Analyses of Political Interventions and Terrorism .................................. 53 Rationale for Selected Socio-Legal Reforms .......................................................... 56 Repeal of Pass Laws – July 1, 1986 .................................................................... 59 Repeal of the Race Classification Law June 17, 1991 ........................................ 62 iv Rationale for Selected Political Reforms ................................................................ 65 Legalization of Outlawed Political Parties/ Release of Nelson Mandela Announced – February 2, 1990 ........................................................................... 68 First Democratic Election – April 26-29, 1994 .................................................. 69 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 71 Chapter 5: Data and Methodology .............................................................................. 72 Overview ................................................................................................................. 72 Data ......................................................................................................................... 72 Background of the Global Terrorism Database .................................................. 72 Updating the GTD............................................................................................... 76 Variables ................................................................................................................. 94 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 98 Types of Interventions ...................................................................................... 100 Time Series Limitations ........................................................................................ 102 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 107 Chapter 6: Results .................................................................................................... 108 Overview ............................................................................................................... 108 Description of