! ! ! ! 14th!Swiss!Climate!Summer!School! ! Extreme!Events!and!Climate! ! ! Congressi!Stefano!Franscini,!Monte! Verità! ! 23!–!28!August!2015! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Supporting!bodies! ! ! Center!for!Climate!Systems!Modeling! ETH!Zurich! CHN!L12.2! Universitätsstr.!16! CH98092!Zurich! http://www.c2sm.ethz.ch/! ! ! Monte!Verità! ! Via!Collina!! ! CH96612!Ascona! ! http://www.csf.ethz.ch!! ! ! ETH!Zurich! Rämistrasse!101! 8092!Zurich! https://www.ethz.ch! ! ! University!of!Bern! ! Oeschger!Centre! Zähringerstrasse!25! CH93012!Bern! http://www.oeschger.unibe.ch! ! !!!!! Swiss!Reinsurance!Company! ! Mythenquai!50/60! P.O.!Box! CH98022!Zürich! http://www.swissre.com! ! ! Federal!Office!of!Meteorology!and! ! Climatology! Meteoswiss! Operation!Center,!B.O.!Box!257! CH98058!Zurich9Flughafen! http://www.meteoswiss.ch! ! ! The!Global!Energy!and!Water!Cycle! Experiment! http://www.gewex.com! ! ! World!Climate!Research!Programme!! 7bis!Avenue!de!la!Paix,!! Case!postale!2300!Nations! CH91211!Geneva! http://wcrp9climate.org! ! ! ! Table of Contents Cloud Radiative Effect depending on Cloud 1 Aebi Christine Type and Cloud Fraction Exploring the Dynamical Causes of Northeast Agel Laurie 3 US Extreme Precipitation European summer heatwaves and North Alvarez-Castro M. Carmen Atlantic weather regimes in the last 5 Millennium Probabilistic Estimates of Marine N2O Battaglia Gianna 6 Emissions Flood damage claims of houseowners Bernet Daniel promise insights about surface runoff in 8 Switzerland Bevacqua Emanuele Statistical Modelling of Compound Floods 10 Extreme Winter Cyclones in the North Atlantic Blumer Sandro R. in a CESM1.0.1 Last Millennium Climate 12 Simulation” Borodina Aleksandra Robust changes in extreme events 13 FROZENFIRE – a contribution to Paleo Fires Brugger Sandra O. from high-alpine ice cores over the last two 14 millennia Blocking detection with observations from Brunner Lukas 16 radio occultation: A case study The importance of including the globe Buzan Jonathan temperature (radiation) in the Wet Bulb Globe 17 Temperature index Evaluation of Mechanisms of Extreme Colfescu Ioana Temperatures over Europe and North 19 America Impact of Arctic Sea Ice on Circulation Crasemann Berit 20 Patterns, Planetary and Baroclinic Waves Estimation of flood-adaptation indices in Doroszkiewicz Joanna 22 varying climatic conditions The role of the ocean on the development of 24 Duchez Aurelie European weather extremes Understanding the Characteristics and Emerton Rebecca Predictability of 26 Flood Events at the Global Scale What controls atmospheric particle sizes over Erhardt Tobias the Greenland ice sheet? – Influence of 28 changing deposition regimes Synoptic variability in the CMIP5 models over Gibson Peter B. Australia: implications for the simulation of 30 extreme heat Exploring nearly on-in-a-millennium scenarios Gómez-Navarro Juan José of extreme rainfall through dynamically 32 downscaling palaeoclimatic simulations Hydrological climate change impact Hakala Kirsti 34 assessment – addressing the uncertainties Role of soil moisture vs. recent climate Hauser Mathias 35 change for heat waves in western Russia Crop failures and extreme climate events in Huhtamaa Heli 36 historical Finland Predicting the June 2013 European Flooding Ionita Monika based on Precipitation, Soil Moisture and Sea 38 Level Pressure Response surfaces of Swiss flood events to Keller Louise 39 enable and evaluate robust adaptation Analysis of extreme precipitation indices in Kis Anna the Carpathian Region using regional climate 41 model simulations The role of atmospheric blockings in central Lenggenhager Sina 43 European flood events – A casestudy Interannual variations of NPP in European Lienert Sebastian 45 forests Projecting high-resolution extreme climate Lo Shih-how 47 indices with observational constrain The Influence of Climate Variability on Loughran Tammas Australian Heat Wave Frequency, Duration 49 and Intensity Statistical Evidence of the Influence of Solar Activity on Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Malik Abdul (AMO) and All Indian Summer Monsoon 50 Rainfall (AISMR) in Climate Model Simulations Consideration of risks, connected to extreme Matko Maruša weather events, in spatial planning of energy 52 infrastructure Nonstationary Precipitation Implication on precipitation maximum propability Curves for Meresa Hadush K. 54 Hydraulic Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate Past, present and future impact of Vb- Messmer Martina cyclones on extreme precipitation over 56 Central Europe Understanding Extremes: A Multi-proxy, High Resolution Record of Wildfire and Miller Daniel 58 Precipitation History from Basin Pond, Maine, USA Understanding the Development of Deep Mohd Nor Fadzil Convection over the western Malaysian 60 Peninsula during Inter Monsoon HEPS4Power – Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions Monhart Samuel 62 for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues Nicolai-Shaw Nadine Drivers of soil moisture at the global scale 64 Uncertainties in measured extreme O Sungmin 66 precipitation events Assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall Peleg Nadav 68 environment: a case study of medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments Probabilistic Modeling of the European Pistotnik Georg 70 Severe Thunderstorm Climate Extreme Weather Events Impact Modelling: a Pregnolato Maria 72 Transport Case Study A review on regional convection-permitting Prein Andreas climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, 74 and challenges Evaluation of heat-related mortality and Ragettli Martina 76 adaptation measures in Switzerland Exploring eight millennia of climatic, vegetational and agricultural dynamics on the Rey Fabian 78 Swiss Plateau by using annually layered sedimentary time series Richardson Doug Drought forecasting using statistical methods 80 A climatology of synoptic-scale Rossby wave Rothlisberger Matthias 82 triggering events Atmospheric and oceanic warming patterns Rugenstein Maria 84 depend non-linearly on the forcing magnitude Development of a hybrid finite-element Cloud Savre Julien 85 Resolving Model including grid adaptivity Added value of very high resolution model simulations for the coasts of Northern Schaaf Benjamin 87 Germany using the example of two case studies of extra- tropical cyclones Exploring the causes of rare extreme precipitation Schröer Katharina 88 events in the south-eastern Alpine foreland region A global regionalization of NCEP-Reanalysis Schubert-Frisius Martina using a high resolution general circulation 90 model Analysis of solar influence on tropospheric Schwander Mikhaël weather using a new time series of weather 91 types Decadal Climate Predictions Using Strobach Ehud 93 Sequential Learning Algorithms Hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria: Thiery Wim 95 climate change and early warnings Radar Characteristics and Patterns Related Trefalt Simona 96 to Convective Wind Gusts in Switzerland Tuinenburg Obbe A new classification of atmospheric droughts 98 Extreme River Floods in Western Switzerland Tuttenuj Daniel and the Lake of Constance Region in the 99 Period Prior to Instrumental Measurements Adaptation decisions and damage costs Usui Takafumi under uncertainty in an empirical general 100 equilibrium framework Volonte Ambrogio Sting Jet analyses in extratropical cyclones 103 The impact of increased Mediterranean sea Volosciuk Claudia surface temperatures on central European 105 extreme precipitation Remote sensing of past and recent fires: Weber Helga Assessing the accuracy of different satellite 107 products Was the extreme storm season 2013-14 over Wild Simon the North Atlantic and the UK triggered by 109 changes in the West-Pacific Warm Pool? Projections of Australian Regional Wilson Louise 110 Temperature Extremes from CMIP5 Models Searching for synergies in crop rotation Zarrineh Nina manage- ment – A simulation-optimization 112 approach Catastrophic Magdalena or not? The flood Zbinden Eveline 114 events of AD 1342 in Central Europe Early to Mid-Holocene climate variability from Ziehmer Malin Michelle 116 multi-millennial tree ring isotope records Swiss Climate Summer School 2015: Extreme Events and Climate Cloud Radiative Effect depending on Cloud Type and Cloud Fraction Christine Aebi (1,2), Julian Gröbner (1), Niklaus Kämpfer (2), Laurent Vuilleumier (3) (1) Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland (2) Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research and Institute of Applied Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland (3) Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Payerne, Switzerland Radiative transfer of energy in the atmosphere and the influence of clouds on the radiation budget remain the greatest sources of uncertainty in the simulation of climate change. Small changes in cloudiness and radiation can have large impacts on the Earth’s climate. Depending on the wavelength range, the effect of clouds on the radiation budget can have an opposing sign. For assessing this effect and the corresponding changes, frequent and more precise radiation and cloud observations are necessary. The role of clouds on the surface radiation budget is studied in order to quantify the longwave, shortwave and the total cloud radiative effect (CRE) depending on the atmospheric composition and cloud type. The study is performed for three different sites in Switzerland at three different altitude levels: Payerne (490 m asl), Davos (1’560 m asl) and Jungfraujoch (3’580 m asl). On the basis of data of visible all-sky