TIME DEFICITS AND POVERTY The Levy Institute Measure of Time and Consumption Poverty for Turkey Ajit Zacharias, Thomas Masterson, and Emel Memis¸ January 2014 1 Final Report Empowered lives. Resilient nations. 1 Draft: Please do not quote or cite without permission of the authors. Time Deficits and Poverty The Levy Institute Measure of Time and Consumption Poverty for Turkey Ajit Zacharias,Thomas Masterson, and Emel Memiş January 2014 Final Report* * Draft. Please do not quote or cite without permission of the authors. Contents List of Figures .............................................................................................................................................. iii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... iv Preface ......................................................................................................................................................... vi Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... vii 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 1 2 BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................... 3 2.2 Trends in Employment, Income and Poverty ................................................................................ 3 2.2.1 Trends in the employment of men and women ...................................................................... 3 2.2.2 Trends in household income and poverty............................................................................ 11 2.3 Literature Review: Poor and Low-Income Individuals and Households .................................... 14 2.4 The Turkish Welfare State in the Last Decade ........................................................................... 17 2.5 Official Poverty Measure ............................................................................................................ 22 3 MEASUREMENT FRAMEWORK AND EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY ................................... 26 3.2 Measurement Framework ........................................................................................................... 26 3.3 Empirical Methodology and Data Sources ................................................................................. 30 3.3.1 Statistical Matching ............................................................................................................ 30 3.3.2 Estimating Time Deficits ..................................................................................................... 32 3.4 Adjusting Poverty Thresholds ..................................................................................................... 39 4 TIME AND CONSUMPTION POVERTY, 2006 .............................................................................. 43 4.1 The Hidden Poor: Comparing Official and Adjusted Rates of Consumption Poverty ............... 43 4.2 Hidden Consumption Needs ....................................................................................................... 46 4.3 The LIMTCP Classification of Households ................................................................................ 50 4.4 The Hidden Time-Poor, Rates of Time Poverty and Size of Time Deficits ............................... 51 4.5 Hours of Employment, Time Deficits and Earnings ................................................................... 56 4.6 Status in Employment, Consumption Poverty and Time Poverty ............................................... 61 i 4.7 Household Structure, Consumption Poverty and Time Poverty of Employed Households ........ 65 5 LABOR FORCE SIMULATION ....................................................................................................... 69 5.1 Individuals ................................................................................................................................... 71 5.2 Households .................................................................................................................................. 80 6 CONCLUDING REMARKS: POLICY (RE) CONSIDERATIONS ................................................. 86 6.1 Equal Employment Opportunities for Women and Men ............................................................ 89 6.2 Lower Hours of Employment and Higher Earnings ................................................................... 93 6.3 Public Provisioning of Social Care Services as a Support for Employment ............................... 94 6.4 Social Assistance ........................................................................................................................ 95 Appendix A. Quality of Statistical Match and Simulations ...................................................................... 100 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 114 TABLES ............................................................................................................................................... 115 FIGURES .............................................................................................................................................. 123 ii List of Figures Figure 1 Annualized Rate of Change in Employment and GDP Growth (2001.I to 2013.I) ........................ 4 Figure 2 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates (2001.I to 2013.I) ..................................................... 5 Figure 3 Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rates (2001.I to 2013.I) ...................................... 5 Figure 4 Sectoral Employment Shares by Sex, 2006 and 2012 (percent) .................................................... 6 Figure 5 Occupational Distribution, 2004, 2006 and 2012 .......................................................................... 7 Figure 6 Poverty Rates, 2002-2011 ............................................................................................................ 13 Figure 7 Threshold Hours of Household Production (Weekly Hours per Household) .............................. 35 Figure 8 Person’s Share in the Total Hours of Household Production (Percent) by Sex and Location, Persons 18 to 70 Years ................................................................................................................................ 37 Figure 9 Distribution of Weekly Hours of Employment by Sex and Location, Persons 18 to 70 years .... 38 Figure 10 Incidence of Consumption Poverty: Official vs. LIMTCP (Percent of all Households and Number of Poor Households in Thousands Shown in Parentheses) ........................................................... 44 Figure 11 Average Consumption Deficits (Percent of Poverty Line) of Consumption-Poor Households by Subgroup ..................................................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 12 Type of Time Poverty by Sex and Location (Percent Distribution and the Number of Time- Poor Persons in Millions) ............................................................................................................................ 51 Figure 13 Type of Time Poverty of Women by Location and Poverty Status (Percent Distribution) ....... 52 Figure 14 Time Deficit of Time-Poor Adults by Sex and Income Poverty Status (Average Weekly Hours) .................................................................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 15 Time Deficit from Employment-Only Time-Bind of Time-Poor, Employed Adults (by Sex) and Time Deficit from Other Time-Binds Faced by Time-Poor Women (Weekly Hours) ............................... 55 Figure 16 Household Time Deficit of Time-Poor Households by Income Poverty Status ........................ 56 Figure 17 Incidence of Time Poverty by Weekly Hours of Employment and Sex (Percent) ..................... 57 Figure 18 Weekly Hours of Required Household Production, by Weekly Hours of Employment and Sex .................................................................................................................................................................... 58 Figure 19 Time Poverty Rate by Earnings Quintile and Sex (Percent) ...................................................... 59 Figure 20 Weekly Hours of Employment and Required Household Production, by Sex and Earnings Quintile ....................................................................................................................................................... 60 Figure 21 Gender Disparity in Poverty Rate by Status in Employment (Percentage Points): Official vs. LIMTCP ...................................................................................................................................................... 63 Figure 22 Time Poverty Rates by Status in Employment (Percent) ........................................................... 64 Figure 23 Individual Official and Adjusted Consumption Poverty Rates After Simulation (Percent) ...... 72 iii List of Tables Table 1 Gender Based Analysis (GBA) in Canada: Lessons for India ......................................................... 9 Table 2 Distribution of Employed by