The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgement of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non- commercial research purposes only. Published by the University of Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. University of Cape Town PARTISAN . IDENTIFICATION IN AFRICA: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY IN MOZAMBIQUE A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Humanities, University of Cape Town, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Studies. JOÃO C.G. PEREIRA University of Cape Town Table of Contents DECLARATION VII DEDICATION VIII ABSTRACT IX ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS XI ACRONYMS XIV CHAPTER I: BACKGROUND AND MOTIVATION FOR THE STUDY 1 1.1. Introduction 1 1.2. Purpose of this study 4 1.3. Research Question 5 1.4. Significance of the Study 6 1.5. The Outline of this thesis 7 CHAPTER II: THE APPROACH UNDERLYING THE RESEARCH 8 2.1. Introduction 8 2.2. The Sociological Approach 8 2.3. The socio-psychological approach: a stable characteristic or an effect of short-term forces 16 2.4. The rational choice approach 23 2.5. The values choice approach 28 2.6. The cognitive awareness approach 30 2.7. Summary University of Cape Town 35 CHAPTER III: A MODEL OF PARTISAN IDENTIFICATION 37 3.1. Introduction 37 3.2. Social cleavages 37 3.3. Cultural Values 47 3.4. Economic evaluations 55 3.5. Political performance evaluations 62 i Party ID in Mozambique 3.6. Cognitive factors 68 CHAPTER IV: MEASURING PARTISAN IDENTIFICATION 72 4.1. Introduction 72 4.2. Representativeness of the sample 74 4.3. Criteria for validity 76 4.4. Criteria for reliability 85 4.5. Methods of analysis 91 4.6. Model-building strategies and methods for logistic regression for this study 94 4.7. Operationalization of variables to be tested on the selected models 97 CHAPTER V THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL CLEAVAGES 101 5.1. Introduction 101 5.2. Results 102 5.3. Predicting Identification with FRELIMO 120 5.4. Predicting identification with the opposition 122 5.5. Predicting identification with non-partisans (or independence) 123 5.6. Conclusion 130 CHAPTER VI: THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIOPOLITICAL VALUES 131 6.1. Introduction 131 6.2. Results 132 6.3. Predicting identification with FRELIMO 150 6.4. Predicting identification with opposition parties 153 6.5. Predicting identificationUniversity with non-partisanship of (or Cape independence) Town 154 6.6. Conclusion 156 CHAPTER VII: THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 158 7.1. Introduction 158 7.2. Results 159 7.3. Predicting identification with FRELIMO 172 7.4. Predicting identification with opposition parties 173 ii Party ID in Mozambique 7.5. Predicting identification with non-partisanship (or independence) 174 7.6. Conclusion 181 CHAPTER VIII: THE INFLUENCE OF POLITICAL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 183 8.1. Introduction 183 8.2. Results 184 8.2.6. State performance 205 8.3. Predicting identification with FRELIMO 213 8.4. Predicting identification with opposition parties 215 8.4. Predicting identification with non-partisanship (or independence) 215 8.6. Conclusion 217 CHAPTER IX: THE INFLUENCE OF COGNITIVE AWARENESS 219 9.1. Introduction 219 9.2 Results 221 9.3. What has to be taken into account to analyse the effect of political intermediation? 232 9.4. Direct effect of political intermediation variables 233 9.5. Direct effect of political intermediation variables with larger inclusive model 235 9.6. Indirect effect of political intermediation variables. 236 9.7 An integrated analysis with interactions also included 239 9.8. Conclusion 243 CHAPTER X: CONCLUSION 245 10.1. Major findingsUniversity and contributions to electoral of studies Cape in Africa and Town elsewhere 248 10.2. Implications of findings for the future of multi-party competition in Mozambique, and strategies to support democracy in the country 257 APPENDIX (A): THE AFROBAROMETER SURVEY IN MOZAMBIQUE: PROCEDURES 263 APPENDIX (B): DEFINITIONS OF VARIABLES 266 BIBLIOGRAPHY 272 iii Party ID in Mozambique List of Tables Table 3 1: Government effectiveness regarding public goods 64 Table 3 2: Summary of the hypotheses to be tested 71 Table 4 1: Sample distributions 76 Table 4 2: Closeness to political parties and its effects on political behaviour 81 Table 4 3: The distribution of stable support for political party (per cent) 87 Table 4 4: The distribution of unstable support for political party (per cent) 87 Table 4 5: Effects of political fear on public opinion 91 Table 5 1: Size of largest ethnic support base across 16 African countries 107 Table 5 2: Multiple logistic analysis and its effects on partisan identification 122 Table 6 1: Multiple logistic analysis and its effects on partisan identification 153 Table 7 1: Level of satisfaction with personal economic conditions: present, past and future 162 Table 7 2: Level of satisfaction with countries’ economic conditions: present, past and future 165 Table 7 3: Multi-variety analysis and its effect on partisan identification 173 Table 8 1: Political evaluation and its effect on partisan identification 214 Table 9 1: Cognitive awareness analysis anyd its of effects Cape on partisan identification Town 234 Table 9 2: Multiple indicators and theiri effectt on partisanship 236 Table 9 3: Interaction analysis and its effects on partisanship 238 Table 9 4: The strength of modelers to predict FRELIMO Support 241 Table 9 5: The strength of model to predict opposition 242 Table 9 6: The strengthUniv of model to predict independence 243 iv Party ID in Mozambique List of Graphs Graph 4 1: FRELIMO party identification and FRELIMO electoral results 82 Graph 4 2: RENAMO party identification and RENAMO electoral results 83 Graph 4 3: Consistent partisanship with electoral results by the southern African countries (per cent) 84 Graph 4 4: Inconsistent partisanship with electoral results by the southern African countries (per cent) 84 Graph 4 5: Partisanship and electoral results by countries (southern African countries) (per cent) 84 Graph 4 6: Proportion of stable partisanship by nation (per cent) 86 Graph 4 7: Proportion of unstable partisanship by nation (per cent): 86 Graph 5 1: Ethnic group distribution in Mozambique 103 Graph 5 2: Religious affiliation distribution in Mozambique 113 Graph 5 3: Average religious affiliation in 16 Africa countries 113 Graph 5 4: Occupational class in Mozambique 117 Graph 5 5: Average occupational class in16 African countries 117 Graph 6 1: Communitarian vs. individualistic values in Mozambique 133 Graph 6 2: Communitarian vs. individualistic values across the16 Afrobarometer countries 134 Graph 6 3: Religiosity in Mozambique 136 Graph 6 4: Religiosity across the16 Afrobarometer countries 136 Graph 6 5: Rejection of authoritarian rule in Mozambique 138 Graph 6 6: Rejection of military rule across the Afrobarometer countries 139 Graph 6 7: Rejection of one-party rule acrtyoss the of Afrobarometer Cape countries Town 140 Graph 6 8: Rejection of one-man rule acrossi the Afrobarometer countries 140 Graph 6 9: Rejection of chief’s rule across the Afrobarometer countries 140 Graph 6 10: Support for democracyers in Mozambique 142 Graph 6 11: Support for democracy across the16 Afrobarometer countries 143 Graph 6 12: ChooseUniv leaders through elections vs. adopt other methods 144 Graph 6 13: Many political parties unnecessary vs. many political parties needed 144 Graph 6 14: Prefer market vs. government-run economy 147 Graph 6 15: Support for market economy across the 16 Afrobarometer countries 148 Graph 6 16: Abandon economic reforms vs. accept hardship 148 Graph 6 17: More jobs, low wages vs. fewer jobs, high wages 149 Graph 6 18: All civil servants keep jobs vs. lay-offs to reduce costs 149 Graph 7 1: Present personal economic conditions 160 Graph 7 2: Past personal economic conditions 161 Graph 7 3: Future personal economic conditions 161 Graph 7 4:.Country’s current economic conditions 163 Graph 7 5: Country’s past economic conditions 163 v Party ID in Mozambique Graph 7 6: Country’s future economic conditions 164 Graph 7 7: Government handling the economy 166 Graph 7 8: Evaluation of economic reform 167 Graph 7 9: Average of the 16 Afrobarometer countries’ evaluation of economic reform 167 Graph 8 1: Satisfaction with democracy in Mozambique 185 Graph 8 2: Satisfaction with democracy across 16 African countries 185 Graph 8 3: The extent of democracy in Mozambique 187 Graph 8 4: The extent of democracy across 16 African countries 187 Graph 8 5: Delivery of political freedoms in Mozambique 190 Graph 8 6: Perceived corruption in Mozambique 193 Graph 8 7: Actual corruption in Mozambique 193 Graph 8 8: Performance: President of Mozambique 196 Graph 8 9: Performance: of the president across 16 African countries 197 Graph 8 10: Performance: provincial governor 199 Graph 8 11: Performance: National Assembly 199 Graph 8 12: How much do leaders listen to what people have to say? 201 Graph 8 13: How much do leaders look after the interests of people? 201 Graph 8 14: Average of leaders who listen to what people have to say across 16 African countries 202 Graph 8 15: Average of leaders who look after the interests of people across 16 African countries 202 Graph 8 16: Trust in the president in Mozambique 204 Graph 8 17: Trust in the president across 16 African countries 204 Graph 8 18: Enforce the law if committedy a serious of crimeCape Town 206 Graph 8 19: Enforce the law if evade incomeit tax 207 Graph 8 20: