Unlocking the Lower Skies The Costs and Benefits of Deploying Drones across Use Cases in East Africa Aiga Stokenberga and Maria Catalina Ochoa INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS Unlocking the Lower Skies The Costs and Benefits of Deploying Drones across Use Cases in East Africa AIGA STOKENBERGA AND MARIA CATALINA OCHOA © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 24 23 22 21 Books in this series are published to communicate the results of World Bank research, analysis, and operational experience with the least possible delay. The extent of language editing varies from book to book. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. 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Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-1-4648-1696-3 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1696-3 Cover photo: The bamboo drone was built during the Lake Victoria Challenge in 2018 by Bornlove Ntikha, supported by Ivan Gayton (Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team), Freddie Mbuya (Uhurulabs), and Innocent Maholi (OpenMap Development Tanzania). The frame is constructed with only local materials, and the flight controls are based on open-source software. The drone was used to test a Drone Traffic Management System tracker during the Challenge. © Sala Lewis / World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Debra Naylor / Naylor Design Inc. Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix About the Authors xi Executive Summary xiii Abbreviations xxi Introduction 1 Context: Africa’s transport infrastructure needs 1 The potential of unmanned aerial vehicles 2 Use cases for drones in East Africa 3 References 4 CHAPTER 1 Medical Goods Deliveries 5 The big picture: The demand for medical goods deliveries 5 Present costs and modalities 13 Integrating drones into existing supply chains 24 Public health impacts 56 Notes 63 References 64 CHAPTER 2 Food Aid Delivery 69 The big picture: The regional demand for food aid 69 Present costs and modalities 73 Integrating drones into existing food aid delivery systems 76 The human impact 83 Notes 84 References 84 CHAPTER 3 Land Mapping and Risk Assessment 87 The big picture: The market and the need for aerial mapping and risk assessment 87 Available nondrone-based approaches 88 Integrating drones into existing mapping and risk assessment systems 90 The human impact 102 Notes 104 References 104 iii iv | UNLOCKing THE Lower SKIES CHAPTER 4 Agriculture 107 The big picture: The market for agricultural assessments and specialized services 107 Present costs and methods for agricultural assessments and services 109 Integrating drones into existing agricultural data collection and services systems 111 The human and environmental impacts of UAVs 117 Notes 118 References 118 CHAPTER 5 Infrastructure Inspection 121 The big picture: Regional demand for infrastructure inspection 121 Present costs and modalities 124 Integrating drones into existing infrastructure inspection systems 127 The human and societal impacts 133 Notes 134 References 134 CHAPTER 6 Other Applications 139 Disease monitoring and prevention 139 Pandemic response 139 Conservation 140 Peace and security 140 Mining and industry 140 Notes 141 References 141 CHAPTER 7 Other Considerations in Drone Economics 143 Opportunities for cost reduction by combining use cases 143 The role of the regulatory enabling environment 143 The need to integrate drones within existing systems and supply chains 144 The role of supporting infrastructure 145 References 145 Boxes 1.1 Integrating drones into Vanuatu’s immunization supply chain 28 1.2 Malawi drone corridor: An opportunity to assess longer-term impacts 38 1.3 Dr.One drone-based medical goods delivery business model (Ghana) 41 1.4 The Dr.One business case (Ghana) 52 3.1 Adoption of drones for land mapping in physically challenging environments: Nepal 90 3.2 Global Program for Resilient Housing: Collecting drone imagery in the Caribbean 93 3.3 UAV-based survey of the infrastructure impacts of the Regent-Lumley landslide in Sierra Leone 102 4.1 Defining a business model for drone-based data provision ot smallholder farmers in Mozambique 116 Figures 1.1 Hib3 and MCV2 immunization coverage, 2018 6 1.2 Schematic of transport supply chain for medical goods distribution to Ukerewe islands 13 1.3 Transport supply chain for routine distribution 14 Contents | v 1.4 Transport supply chain for lifesaving items supplied on an emergency basis 15 1.5 Transport supply chain for vaccines 17 1.6 Transport supply chain for blood for testing and whole blood for transfusion 19 1.7 Transport supply chain for laboratory samples 20 1.8 Share of individual medical goods and destinations in overall annual medical goods transport costs in Ukerewe 21 1.9 Schematic of medical goods delivery system in Malawi and associated challenges 22 1.10 Turnaround time for EID, VL, and TB specimen collection and delivery of test results: Illustrative example for Nkhata Bay, Malawi 22 1.11 Rules of thumb for identifying the advantages of UASs compared with traditional transport 26 1.12 Drone Observed Therapy System (DrOTS), Madagascar 34 1.13 Tuberculosis incidence and treatment coverage 35 1.14 Scenario analysis of annual costs and savings for a hypothetical East Africa case 47 1.15 The cost of transporting medical goods to all Ukerewe facilities using UAVs compared with current methods, assuming an initial capital cost of $75,000 per UAV 49 1.16 Transport cost by UAV or land cruiser vs. anticipated number of flights per year 51 1.17 Layering medical goods deliveries: Effect on annual number of UAV flights and average transport costs per flight 53 1.18 Operating cost parity for UAVs, considering current transport costs 55 1.19 Cost parity for a hypothetical use case in Malawi: Break-even price at current scale 56 1.20 Blood transfusion needs vs. blood availability in Ukerewe District 59 1.21 Ukerewe District: Estimated number of deaths per year with traditional transport vs. UAVs as a result of extreme blood loss 60 1.22 Sensitivity of UAV health impacts (deaths averted) to number of cases and probability of timely blood delivery by traditional transport 61 2.1 World Food Programme food deliveries to the East Africa region, by recipient country, 2016–17 71 2.2 Schematic of WFP food aid delivery network in South Sudan 74 2.3 Estimated round-trip transport