V19, N10 Thursday, Oct. 17, 2013 Pulling back from the default abyss Shutdown ends; now we await how history is written By BRIAN A. HOWEY NASHVILLE, Ind. – In- diana’s senior Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Coats seemed to sum up the debacle that has played out over the past several months in Washington. Coats voted yes on the legislation that reopened the federal government and pulled the United States away from the abyss of default, but did so while holding his nose. “While I deplore sup- porting yet another short-term Band-Aid, the only thing worse or Senate Demo- would be a continued government shutdown, the United crats. As we’ve States defaulting on its debt obligations and the elimina- seen from Obam- tion of the spending reductions enacted by Congress in acare’s disastrous 2011,” said Coats Wednesday afternoon as the clock was rollout, this law’s failures are more than mere glitches, and ticking down to default. “I have voted for and will continue the fight to repeal it must continue. I am disappointed with to support efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare with this outcome, but my commitment to reducing our debt, common-sense health care reforms. It is evident to me that the present strategy has failed to sway the president Continued on page 3 What are Dem chances in ‘14? By CHRIS SAUTTER WASHINGTON - Former Congressman and 9/11 Commission Co-Chairman Lee Hamilton once said about the landslide election in 1964 that carried him and his fel- low Democrats to a record majority “Obviously it is a political in Congress, “any fool running on the weapon of mass destruction.” Democratic ticket could have won that year … and there were a few that did.” - Warren Buffett, to CNN The same could be said about on urging an end Democrats in 1974 and Republicans in 1994 and 2010. The political winds to using the debt limit in each of those years were so strong that the usual rules and campaign as a bargaining chip dynamics didn’t apply. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Oct. 17, 2013 The question a year out from When Gingrich was Speaker, he was the 2014 midterm elections is whether calling the shots for Republicans. Gin- the Republican brand is so badly dam- grich had been the party’s chief strate- aged by recent tactics that their ma- gist during the 1994 elections. Newly jority in the House of Representatives elected House Republicans owed their is a non-partisan newsletter is truly in jeopardy. Or to paraphrase victories to Gingrich and his “contract based in Indianapolis and Lee Hamilton, is the public so disgust- with America.” ed with the Republican Party that they Today, the Tea Party radicals Nashville, Ind. It was founded will vote for almost “any fool running who have kept the government hos- in 1994 in Fort Wayne. on the Democratic ticket” in 2014. tage for the past several weeks don’t It is published by There is growing evidence owe their seats to anyone in Wash- WWWHowey Media, LLC that Republicans will indeed pay a very ington. They are in debt to Tea Party 405 Massachusetts Ave., high price for their strategy of shutting activists back in their home districts. down the government and bringing When the American public Suite 300 the country to the brink of default sees who is in charge of the U.S. Indianapolis, IN 46204 over continued opposition to the Af- House of Representatives, they don’t fordable Care Act. Three quarters of see rational people. They see confed- Brian A. Howey, Publisher American disapprove of how Congres- erates who hold to a militia ideology Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington sional Republicans handled the budget and mentality. They see birthers who showdown in a Washington Post—ABC deny that the failure of the United Jack E. Howey, Editor poll. Similarly, according to an NBC/ States to pay its bills on time is a seri- Mary Lou Howey, Editor Wall Street Journal poll, the public ous problem. They see House back- Maureen Hayden, Statehouse blames the Republican Party more for benchers who have no qualms about Matthew Butler, Daily Wire the shutdown than President Obama sticking it to a House Speaker of their by a 22-point margin (53% to 31%). own party. In short, Americans see “If it were not so bad for the anarchy in the House of Representa- Subscriptions country, the results could almost make tives and it freaks out many of them. $599 annually a Democrat smile,” Democratic pollster There are many good Ray Volpe, Account Manager Peter Hart commented. Republican reasons why Democrats may not take ' 317.602.3620 pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted back the House in 2014. A year is the survey with Hart, said that the a long time and events could inter- email: [email protected] NBC/WSJ poll is among a handful of vene to change the country’s political surveys that stand out in his career as dynamic. Congressional districts have Contact HPI being “significant and consequential.” been so finely gerrymandered that www.howeypolitics.com The problem for the GOP is few are truly competitive. The party not just that a clear majority of Ameri- in power has gained seats in an off- [email protected] cans blame them rather than President year election of the president’s 2nd 'Howey’s Cabin: 812.988.6520 Obama for the federal shutdown. The term only once. Democrats might get 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 real problem for Republicans is why blamed for a still sputtering economic 'Washington: 202.256.5822 the public blames them. Americans recovery. A majority of Americans still are beginning to think the House is don’t approve of Obama-care. 'Business Office:317.602.3620 being led by a bunch of lunatics. That But the trends today suggest perception is not far from the truth. a major anti-GOP wave is building that © 2013, Howey Politics Indiana. This shutdown is different could defy the usual rules of thumb in All rights reserved. Photocopy- than the one Newt Gingrich led during off-year elections. Not only do Repub- ing, Internet forwarding, fax- the Clinton presidency. Indeed, the licans face a fast growing demographic ing or reproducing in any form, margin of blame for the GOP is much squeeze as demonstrated by the 2012 wider than the level of blame Repub- presidential election results, but the whole or part, is a violation of licans received during the last shut- GOP brand is becoming increasingly federal law without permission down in 1995-96. unappealing even to traditional Repub- from the publisher. v The difference between the licans who should feel quite at home last shutdown and this one has to do within the GOP. For example, polls with who drove the confrontation. indicate the Republican government HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Oct. 17, 2013 shutdown is strongly opposed by high-income suburban rated as “lean Republican,” but also in districts that Repub- whites who usually favor Republican candidates. licans are currently favored to win. Yet the shutdown has Democrats need to pick up 17 seats to take given Democrats a chance to overcome the odds because control of the House. A survey by Public Policy Polling (PPP) Republicans are starting to look like they neither can nor taken from Oct. 2 through Oct. 4 shows Republicans behind want to govern. in 17 of the districts analyzed. In another four districts, Traditional Republicans are guilty of enabling GOP the incumbents fell behind after respondents were told Tea Party extremists. For too long they have refused to their representatives supported the government shutdown. confront the racism and extreme tendencies within the Tea Three Republican incumbents maintained their lead even Party movement for fear of inviting a primary challenge after respondents were told of their representative’s sup- from the right. They may have no alternative now if they port for the government shutdown. want to survive. v Democrats will have to put 35-40 districts in play to have a realistic chance to take control. They will have to Sautter is a Democratic consultant based in Wash- win races that are not only rated as “toss-ups” and those ington. nell proposed and passed. “There was great concern we Abyss, from page 1 would be bumping up against a deadline and go through default,” Donnelly said. “This wasn’t just playing with fire. growing the economy and getting Americans back to work This was potentially putting the whole building on fire.” will not waver. I will be an integral part of the ongoing ef- And then there was the Republican majority House, fort to address our nation’s serious financial challenges.” which was fixated on Obamacare. It was an outcome, however, that was totally It was that issue that put them on the slippery predictable. House Republicans decided early last summer slope where they never had a chance to win because they to pick a fight over Obamacare. Coats was the adult in control only one branch of government. U.S. Rep. Luke the room, telling Howey Politics Indiana last July that the Messer told Howey Politics in June that there was a six- votes weren’t there. “What I don’t agree with, is it will be to nine-month window to kill it. “Why I say that is we’re repealed,” said Coats, a voracious critic of the law. “It’s the about to undergo next fall and winter and then next spring, President’s signature item.