QUANTIFYING EXPOSURE OF WYOMING’S WILDLIFE TO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE F ACE OF EXPANDING PRODUCTION Prepared by Douglas Keinath1 and Matthew Kauffman2 1 Wyoming Natural Diversity Database, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Ave., Dept. 3381, Laramie, Wyoming 82071 USA; E-mail: [email protected] 2 U.S. Geological Survey, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Ave., Dept. 3166, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA; E-mail: [email protected] December 30, 2014 Suggested citation for this report: Keinath, D. and M. Kauffman. 2014. Quantifying exposure of Wyoming’s wildlife to energy development in the face of expanding production. Report prepared by the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database, Laramie Wyoming and Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit for the Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Cheyenne, Wyoming and the U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins, Colorado. December 30, 2014. TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables and Figures ..................................................................................................................... 3 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 4 Methods ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 Focal landscape ............................................................................................................................................................. 6 Mapping Distributions of Species and Development.................................................................................... 6 Calculating exposure to development ................................................................................................................. 8 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. 14 References ............................................................................................................................................... 14 Appendix A. Detailed presentation of materials, methods and species sensitivity ..... 25 Energy Development Models ................................................................................................................................. 25 Analytical Approach and Data Sources: Oil and Gas. .................................................................... 25 Analytical Approach and Data Sources: Wind Power. .................................................................. 26 Energy Model Validation .......................................................................................................................... 28 Species Distribution Models ................................................................................................................................... 29 Data Sources .................................................................................................................................................. 29 Analytical Approach ..................................................................................................................................... 30 Species Model Validation.......................................................................................................................... 31 Calculating Exposure ................................................................................................................................................ 32 Exposure Index ............................................................................................................................................. 32 Uncertainty Assessment ........................................................................................................................................... 33 Species Distributions .................................................................................................................................. 34 Energy Development .................................................................................................................................. 35 Species Sensitivity ....................................................................................................................................................... 37 Appendix B: Additional figures presenting exposure values for all species, the results of sensitivity analyses, and footprint maps ..................................................................................... 41 Appendix C: Tables providing exposure and uncertainty values for all species. ......... 50 Keinath and Kauffman 2014 2 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 1. Changes through time in exposure to energy development for 156 Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) in Wyoming ......................................................................................... 7 Figure 2. Joint distribution of exposure index (EI) and uncertainty index (UI) for 156 SGCN in Wyoming. ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Figure 3. Wyoming distribution maps for the six Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) highlighted in Figs. 1 and 2. ............................................................................................................... 11 Table A1. Occurrence quality scoring system used to evaluate records based on spatial precision (A), age of record (B), and taxonomic certainty of identification (C). ........................... 40 Figure B1. Examples of Exposure Index (EI) values presented with equivalent densities of structures (wells or turbines). ......................................................................................................... 41 Figure B2. Projected 2030 total Exposure Index (EI) for 156 Wyoming Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) examined in this study. ............................................................. 42 Figure B3. Energy footprint maps of Wyoming showing the 2030 predicted exposure surface for oil and gas wells and wind-power turbines under anticipated (A) and unrestrained (B) scenarios.. ................................................................................................................................................. 43 Figure B4. Distribution of exposure relative to modeled habitat for several Wyoming Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN). ............................................................................................ 44 Figure B5. Map of Greater Sage Grouse ‘core areas’ (green shading) as defined by Wyoming Executive Order 2011-5. .................................................................................................................. 44 Figure B6. Fraction of the total 2030 Exposure Index (EI; green) and distribution model values (gray) falling within core areas of Greater Sage-Grouse. .................................................... 46 Figure B7. Range in exposure ranks resulting from using different exposure functions to quantify exposure to disturbance. .................................................................................................................... 47 Figure B8. Projected 2030 total Exposure Index (EI) for 156 Wyoming Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) examined in this study under the anticipated (hollow bars) and unrestrained (gray squares) buildout scenarios. ................................................................... 48 Figure B9. Range in exposure rank resulting from magnitude of buildout. ............................. 49 Table C1. Exposure Index (EI) values for all 156 Wyoming Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) listed in order of decreasing 2030 total EI. ................................................................. 50 Table C2. Factors used to assess distribution model quality and hence uncertainty for all 156 species in this study. .......................................................................................................................... 58 Keinath and Kauffman 2014 3 SUMMARY Maintaining biodiversity in the face of rapid and extensive anthropogenic habitat change is exacerbated when national policies, such as the current push for increased and diversified energy production, accelerate development beyond the capacity of wildlife managers to respond, thus forcing them to initiate conservation with inadequate information. A priori species prioritization schemes help alleviate this problem, and while many such schemes have been proposed, all depend on gauging exposure of species to disturbance. Here, we apply a refined, quantitative method to estimate exposure for a wide range of species by calculating the weighted proximity of species’ distributions to current and projected energy development. We also incorporate an objective assessment