Prediction and innovation for antelope conservation in Africa Mark R Stanley Price Antelope, Giraffe, Hippo in the 21st Century: Conservation Action in Africa Prague, February 2017 Fig. 1 Red List status and antelope species Fig 2 The number of countries in which each antelope species occurs and its Red List status Fig. 3 Distribution of weight classes among African antelope species Fig. 4 Weight class and Red List status Fig. 5 Carnivore size and prey size Carbone et al., 1999 Fig. 3 Distribution of weight classes among African antelope species Fig. 6 Historic and current ranges of lion in Africa Fig.7 Historic and current ranges of cheetah in Africa Fig.8 7 illustrative sites for antelopes Fig.9 Antelope species occurring at each of 7 illustrative sites Serengeti Laikipia Luando Nyae Nyae Dzanga Ogaden O.Achim-O. Rime Bohor reedbuck Beisa oryx Blue duiker Common eland Bates' Pygmy antelope Bushbuck Addax Bushbuck Bushbuck Bushbuck Common wildebeest Bay duiker Dibatag Dama gazelle Chanler's mountain Coke's hartebeest Common/grey Common/grey duiker Black-fronted duiker Gerenuk Dorcas gazelle reedbuck duiker Coke's hartebeest Common eland Defassa waterbuck Gemsbok Blue duiker Greater kudu Red-fronted gazelle Common eland Common impala Giant sable antelope Greater kudu Bushbuck Guenther's dik-dik Scimitar-horned oryx Common impala Common Oribi Red hartebeest Peters' duiker Lesser kudu waterbuck Common wildebeest Common/grey Red lechwe Royal antelope Sitatunga Salt's dik-dik duiker Defassa waterbuck Gerenuk Roan antelope Southern reedbuck White-bellied duiker Soemmerring's gazelle Grant's gazelle Grant's gazelle Southern reedbuck Springbok Yellow-backed duiker Speke's gazelle Kirk's dik-dik Greater kudu Yellow-backed Steenbok duiker Klipspringer Kirk's dik-dik Oribi Klipspringer Roan antelope Lesser kudu Steenbok Steenbok Thomson's gazelle Thomson's gazelle Topi 16 15 10 10 9 9 5 Fig. 10 Antelope Red List status at each site Fig. 11 Key characteristics at each of 7 antelope sites Characteristics of 7 illustrative sites Country Tanzania Namibia Kenya Central African Republic Ethiopia Chad Angola Dzanga-Sangha Special Site Serengeti National Park Nyae Nyae Conservancy Laikipia ranchlands Reserve South Ogaden (1) Oadi Achim-Oadi Rime GR Luando Strict Nature Reserve Ecological zone open/wooded grassland broad-leaved and acacia bushed grassland forest semi-desert sahel grassland-desert deciduous miombo woodland + woodlands, with pans natural clearings Rainfall mm/year 500-1250 (Reed etal) 0-750 400-800 (3) 1500-2000 250-500 0-500 1000-1500 Central African Forest Land ownership / management Tanzania National Parks Communal conservancy Private and smallholder Commission Community Govt. Govt. Protection measures National Park personnel Conservancy and private Ranchers Govt. personnel none? Govt personnel and NGO Govt. sector No. antelope spp. 16 10 15 9 9 5 10 No. threatened 1 0 0 0 3 5 1 % threatened 6 0 0 0 33 100 10 Direct offtakes(2) Local, selective poaching, trophy hunting and own very low level poaching locally intense opportunistic hunting? local & selective sport local bushmeat use (4) community hunting poaching, Pressures, or popn limiting food quality and predation food quality, food limited, bushmeat hunting food quality through erratic fire, food limitation through long-term poaching factors? competition with competition with rainfall and competition with erratic rainfall and competition livestock livestock, fencing not livestock with livestock prevalent Predator pressure high medium medium low low very low low Legal human presence no yes yes yes yes yes yes Illegal human presence no no no no no no yes Solutions protect protect & co-exist protect & co-exist co-exist co-exist>>protect restore & co-exist>>protect protect & restore Fig.12 Maasai problems of living with lions on a Mara, Kenya, conservancy NB Elliot, Mara Lion Project Annual Report 2016 Fig. 13 Maasai preferred solutions NB Elliot, Mara Lion Project Annual Report 2016 Fig.14 Easing the burden of co-existence NB Elliot, Mara Lion Project Annual Report 2016 Fig.15 What it will take to prevent predator killing NB Elliot, Mara Lion Project Annual Report 2016 Fig. 16 Maasai perceptions of livelihoods and predator conservation NB Elliot, Mara Lion Project Annual Report 2016 Fig. 17 Young Maasai using smart phone technology C. Tuite Fig. 18 Lion Guardians in action Fig.19 The Greater Mara ecosystem Fig. 20 Threats to lions Lindsey et al., in press Fig.21 Population status and trend in (top) lions and (bottom) prey Lindsey et al., in press Acknowledgements Al Bustan Zoo for supporting my presence here Laura Perry for help with the graphics Derbianus Conservation for hosting and entertaining .