Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990-2020 Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Updated - December 2008 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections,1990-2020 Updated - December 2008 DISCLAIMER The information contained in the Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections, 1990-2020 report is for public use; every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy. The information presented is as timely and accurate as practicable; no expressed or implied guarantees are made. Scenarios of potential future electrical generation that are presented in the section on Electrical Generation Sector Emissions are for informational purposes only and do not constitute any endorsement or implied preference. Information contained herein may be freely distributed and used for noncommercial, scientific, and educational purposes. Inquiries made in reference to this report should be directed to: Bureau of Air Quality Planning 901 South Stewart Street, Suite 4001 Carson City, Nevada 89701-5249 Telephone: (775) 687-4670 i Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections,1990-2020 Updated - December 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS DISCLAIMER................................................................................................................................i LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................iii LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... iv ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS..................................................................................... v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .......................................................................................................... vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... ES-1 1.0 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................1-1 1.1 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................................1-1 1.2 APPROACH, DATA & GENERAL METHODOLOGY .....................................................1-2 2.0 ELECTRICAL GENERATION SECTOR EMISSIONS ................................................2-1 2.1 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................................2-1 2.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................2-4 2.2.1 Estimation of Historic Emissions.........................................................................2-4 2.2.2 Estimation of Projected Production-Based Emissions.........................................2-5 2.2.3 Estimation of Projected Net-Consumption-Based Emissions............................2-10 2.3 RESULTS ............................................................................................................................2-11 2.3.1 Electricity Consumption ....................................................................................2-11 2.3.2 Electrical Generation .........................................................................................2-13 2.4 UNCERTAINTIES..............................................................................................................2-25 3.0 RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL, AND INDUSTRIAL (RCI) SECTOR EMISSIONS ..........................................................................................................................................3-1 3.1 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................................3-1 3.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................3-1 3.2.1 Estimation of Historic Emissions.........................................................................3-1 3.2.2 Estimation of Projected Emissions ......................................................................3-3 3.3 RESULTS ..............................................................................................................................3-5 3.4 UNCERTAINTIES................................................................................................................3-7 4.0 TRANSPORTATION SECTOR EMISSIONS .................................................................4-1 4.1 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................................4-1 4.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................4-1 4.2.1 Estimation of Historic Emissions.........................................................................4-1 4.2.2 Estimation of Projected Emissions ......................................................................4-2 4.3 RESULTS ..............................................................................................................................4-5 4.4 UNCERTAINTIES................................................................................................................4-6 5.0 INDUSTRIAL PROCESS SECTOR EMISSIONS ..........................................................5-1 5.1 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................................5-1 5.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................5-1 5.3 RESULTS ..............................................................................................................................5-6 5.4 UNCERTAINTIES................................................................................................................5-8 ii Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections,1990-2020 Updated - December 2008 6.0 FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY SECTOR EMISSIONS .......................................................6-1 6.1 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................................6-1 6.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................6-2 6.3 RESULTS ..............................................................................................................................6-4 6.4 UNCERTAINTIES................................................................................................................6-5 7.0 AGRICULTURE SECTOR EMISSIONS.........................................................................7-1 7.1 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................................7-1 7.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................7-2 7.3 RESULTS ..............................................................................................................................7-4 7.4 UNCERTAINTIES................................................................................................................7-5 8.0 WASTE MANAGEMENT SECTOR EMISSIONS .........................................................8-1 8.1 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................................8-1 8.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................8-1 8.3 RESULTS ..............................................................................................................................8-3 8.4 UNCERTAINTIES................................................................................................................8-4 9.0 FORESTRY SECTOR EMISSIONS .................................................................................9-1 9.1 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................................9-1 9.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................9-1 9.3 RESULTS ..............................................................................................................................9-4 9.4 UNCERTAINTIES................................................................................................................9-6 LIST OF TABLES Table ES.1 Nevada Historical and Projected Reference Case Emissions (MMtCO2e), by Sector ........................................................................................................... ES-4 Table 1.1 Key Sources for Nevada Data, Inventory Methods, and Growth Rates ..............1-3 Table 2.1 Key Assumptions for Estimating Projected Electrical Generation Emissions ....2-6 Table 2.2 Changes in Major Fossil-Fuel Power Plant/EGU Generation Capacity, 2005-2020 ............................................................................................................2-8 Table 2.3 Future Electrical Generation Emissions Scenario, 2005-2020 ..........................2-10 Table 2.4 Annual Electricity Sales Growth Rates, Historic and Projected........................2-13 Table 2.5 GWh of Electricity Generation by Energy Source,