CITY OF MORRO BAY COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT Prepared for: CITY OF MORRO BAY 595 HARBOR STREET MORRO BAY, CA 93442 Prepared by: 1026 CHORRO STREET, SUITE 225 SAN LUIS OBISPO, CA 93401 MARCH 2017 COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Method ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Organization ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Projected Conditions ............................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Demographic Change .......................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Economic Change.................................................................................................................................................. 6 2.3 Climate Change ...................................................................................................................................................... 9 3. Vulnerability and Resilience .................................................................................................34 3.1 Land Use ................................................................................................................................................................34 3.2 Infrastructure .......................................................................................................................................................40 3.3 Natural Resources...............................................................................................................................................46 3.4 Parks, Recreation, and open space ................................................................................................................50 3.5 Water and Water Quality...................................................................................................................................57 References .............................................................................................................................66 Appendix A – Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment Method and Tables ...............................69 A.1 Land Use Exposures, Vulnerability, and Resilience...................................................................................72 A.2 Infrastructure .......................................................................................................................................................83 A.3 Natural Resources ..............................................................................................................................................95 A.4 Parks, Recreation, and Open Space............................................................................................................ 108 A.5 Water and Water Quality ............................................................................................................................... 119 TABLES Table 1 Population Projections .................................................................................................. 5 Table 2 Employment Projections ............................................................................................... 6 Table 3 Sea Level Rise Projections ............................................................................................10 Tabl e A-1 Land Use Assets Exposed to Demographic Change and Climate Change Hazards ....72 Tabl e A-2 Land Use Asset Vulnerability to Population Change...................................................73 Tabl e A-3 Land Use Asset Vulnerability to Economic Change....................................................74 Tabl e A-4 Land Use Asset Vul nerabil it y to Ext rem e Heat ............................................................75 Tabl e A-5 Land Use Asset Vulnerability to Wildfire .....................................................................77 Tabl e A-6 Land Use Asset Vulnerability to Drought ....................................................................78 City of Morro Bay Plan Morro Bay Ma rch 2017 Community Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment Page i COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT Tabl e A-7 Land Use Asset Vulnerability to Flood ........................................................................79 Tabl e A-8 Land Use Asset Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise ...........................................................81 Table A-9 Infrastructure Assets Exposed to Demographic Change and Climate Change Hazards, 2040................................................................................83 Tabl e A-10 Infrastructure Asset Vulnerability to Population Change ...........................................84 Tabl e A-11 Infrastructure Asset Vulnerability to Economic Change ............................................85 Tabl e A-12 Infrastructure Asset Vulnerability to Extreme Heat ....................................................86 Tabl e A-13 Infrastructure Asset Vulnerability to Wildfire ..............................................................87 Tabl e A-14 Infrastructure Asset Vulnerability to Drought ............................................................88 Tabl e A-15 Infrastructure Asset Vulnerability to Flood ................................................................90 Tabl e A-16 Infrastructure Asset Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise....................................................94 Tabl e A-17 Natural Resource Assets Exposed to Change ..........................................................95 Tabl e A-18 Natural Resource Asset Vulnerability to Population and Economic Change .............96 Tabl e A-19 Natural Resource Asset Vulnerability to Extreme Heat ..............................................97 Tabl e A-20 Natural Resource Asset Vulnerability to Wildfire .......................................................98 Tabl e A-21 Natural Resource Asset Vulnerability to Drought .................................................... 101 Tabl e A-22 Natural Resource Asset Vulnerability to Flood ........................................................ 104 Tabl e A-23 Natural Resource Asset Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise ........................................... 106 Tabl e A-24 Parks, Recreation, and Open Space Assets by Exposure ........................................ 108 Tabl e A-25 Parks, Recreation, and Open Space Asset Vulnerability to Population Change ...... 109 Tabl e A-26 Parks, Recreation, and Open Space Asset Vulnerability to Employment Change.... 110 Tabl e A-27 Parks, Recreation, and Open Space Asset Vulnerability to Extreme Heat................ 111 Tabl e A-28 Parks, Recreation, and Open Space Asset Vulnerability to Wildfire ......................... 112 Tabl e A-29 Parks, Recreation, and Open Space Asset Vulnerability to Drought ........................ 113 Tabl e A-30 Parks, Recreation, and Open Space Asset Vulnerability to Flood............................ 114 Tabl e A-31 Parks, Recreation, and Open Space Asset Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise ............... 116 Table A-32 Water and Water Quality Assets Exposed to Demographic Change and Climate Change Hazards ................................................................................................... 119 Tabl e A-33 Water and Water Quality Asset Vulnerability to Population Changes...................... 120 Tabl e A-34 Water and Water Quality Asset Vulnerability to Employment Change .................... 122 Tabl e A-35 Water and Water Quality Asset Vulnerability to Extreme Heat ................................ 124 Tabl e A-36 Water and Water Quality Asset Vulnerability to Wildfire.......................................... 125 Tabl e A-37 Water and Water Quality Asset Vulnerability to Drought ........................................ 127 Tabl e A-38 Water and Water Quality Asset Vulnerability to Flood ............................................ 129 Tabl e A-39 Water and Water Quality Asset Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise................................ 131 Plan Morro Bay City of Morro Bay Community Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment March 2017 Page ii COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT FIGURES Figure 1 Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment Process ........................................................... 2 Figure 2 Year 2050 Sea Level Rise Hazards ................................................................................11 Figure 3 Year 2050 Sea Level Rise Hazards ................................................................................13 Figure 4 Year 2050 Sea Level Rise Hazards ................................................................................15 Figure 5 Year 2050 Sea Level Rise Hazards ................................................................................17 Figure 6 Year 2050 Sea Level Rise Hazards ................................................................................19 Figure 7 Year 2100 Sea