World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 United Nations United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 asdf United Nations New York, 2016 The report is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Af- fairs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the five United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)). The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) also contributed to the report. For further information, see http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/index.shtml or contact: DESA ECLAC MR. WU HONGBO, Under-Secretary-General MS. ALICIA BÁRCENA, Executive Secretary Department of Economic and Social Affairs Economic Commission for Latin America Room S-2922 and the Caribbean United Nations Av. Dag Hammarskjöld 3477 New York, NY 10017 Vitacura USA Santiago, Chile ☎ +1-212-9635958 Chile [email protected] ☎ +56-2-22102000 [email protected] UNCTAD DR. MUKHISA KITUYI, Secretary-General ESCAP United Nations Conference on Trade DR. SHAMSHAD AKHTAR, Executive Secretary and Development Economic and Social Commission for Asia Room E-9042 and the Pacific Palais de Nations United Nations Building 1211 Geneva 10 Rajadamnern Nok Avenue Switzerland Bangkok 10200 ☎ +41-22-9175806 Thailand [email protected] ☎ +66-2-2881234 [email protected] ECA DR. CARLOS LOPES, Executive Secretary ESCWA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa MS. RIMA KHALAF, Executive Secretary Menelik II Avenue Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia P.O. Box 3001 P.O. Box 11-8575 Addis Ababa Riad el-Solh Square, Beirut Ethiopia Lebanon ☎ +251-11-5511231 ☎ +961-1-981301 [email protected] @ http://www.escwa.un.org/main/contact.asp ECE MR. CHRISTIAN FRIIS BAch, Executive Secretary ISBN: 978-92-1-109172-4 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe eISBN: 978-92-1-057673-4 Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10 United Nations publication Switzerland Sales No. E.16.II.C.2 ☎ +41-22-9174444 Copyright @ United Nations, 2016 [email protected] All rights reserved Acknowledgements The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the five United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Eco- nomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)). The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) contributed to the report. The report also benefited from inputs received from the national centres of Project LINK and also from the deliberations in the Project LINK meeting held in New York on 21-23 October 2015. The forecasts presented in the report draw on the World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) of UN/DESA. This publication was coordinated by Hamid Rashid, Chief, Global Economic Moni- toring Unit, Development Policy and Analysis Division (DPAD), under the management of Pingfan Hong, Director, DPAD. Lenni Montiel, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development in UN/DESA provided general guidance. The contributions of Grigor Agabekian, Hoi Wai Cheng, Yi Ho Chen, Anis Chowd- hury, Peter Chowla, Ann D’Lima, Myriel Frische, Cordelia Gow, Tim Hilger, Dawn Hol- land, Jiayin Hu, Jasmine Hyman, Matthias Kempf, Leah C. Kennedy, Mary Lee Kortes, Alex Kucharski, Michael Lennard, Hung-Yi Li, Ingo Pitterle, Daniel Platz, Vladimir Popov, Hamid Rashid, Gerard F. Reyes, Ilka Ritter, Gabe Scelta, Benu Schneider, Oliver Schwank, Nancy Settecasi, Krishnan Sharma, Shari Spiegel, Alex Trepelkov, Willem Van Der Geest, Sebastian Vergara, Sergio P. Vieira, Jie Wei and Jinyang Zhang from UN/DESA; Bruno Antunes, Alfredo Calcagno, Pilar Fajarnes, Samuel Gayi, Ricardo Gottschalk, Mina Mash- ayekhi, Nicolas Maystre, Alessandro Nicita, Janvier Nkurunziza, Romain Perez, Edgardo Torija Zane and Komi Tsowou from UNCTAD; Yesuf Mohammednur Awel, Adam Elhi- raika, Hopestone Chavula, Abbi Kedir, Heini Suominen from ECA; José Palacín from ECE; Esteban Perez Caldentey, Ramon Pineda and Daniel Titelman from ECLAC; Hamza Ali Malik, Shuvojit Banerjee, Daniel Jeongdae Lee, Oliver Paddison, Kiatkanid Pongpanich and Vatcharin Sirimaneetham from ESCAP; Mohamed El Moctar Mohamed El Hacene, Mohamed Hedi Bchir, Nathalie Khaled, Jose Antonio Pedrosa Garcia and Yasuhisa Yamamoto from ESCWA; Michel Julian, John Kester, and Javier Ruescas from UNWTO are duly acknowledged. Executive Summary v Explanatory notes The following symbols have been used in the tables throughout the report: .. Two dots indicate that data are not available - A minus sign indicates deficit or decrease, except as indicated. or are not separately reported. / A slash between years indicates a crop year or financial year, – A dash indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. for example, 2015/16. A full stop is used to indicate decimals. – Use of a hyphen between years, for example, 2016–2017, signifies the full period involved, including the beginning and - A hyphen indicates that the item is not applicable. end years. Reference to “dollars” ($) indicates United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. Project LINK is an international collaborative research group for econometric modelling, Reference to “billions” indicates one thousand million. coordinated jointly by the Development Policy Reference to “tons” indicates metric tons, unless otherwise stated. and Analysis Division of UN/DESA and the University of Toronto. Annual rates of growth or change, unless otherwise stated, refer to annual compound rates. For country classifications, see statistical annex. Details and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals, Data presented in this publication incorporate because of rounding. information available as at 30 November 2015. The following abbreviations have been used: AAAA Addis Ababa Action Agenda MNEs multinational enterprises ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations MOM minerals, ores and metals BEPS base erosion and profit sharing MTS Multilateral Trade System BIS Bank for International Settlements NAMA non-agricultural market access bpd barrels per day NDBs national development banks BoJ Bank of Japan ODA official development assistance BRICS Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation CIS Commonwealth of Independent States and Development CFC controlled foreign corporation OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries CPI consumer price index pb per barrel DBs development banks QE quantitative easing DFIs development finance institutions REER real effective exchange rate DFDQ duty-free, quota-free market access RVCs regional value chains ECB European Central Bank RTAs regional trade agreements EU European Union SDGs Sustainable Development Goals FDI foreign direct investment SMEs small and medium-sized enterprises Fed United States Federal Reserve SOEs State-owned enterprises FSB Financial Stability Board SWFs sovereign wealth funds G7 Group of Seven TFA Trade Facilitation Agreement G20 Group of Twenty TISA Trade in Services Agreement GATS General Agreement on Trade in Services TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade UN/DESA Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the GCC Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf United Nations Secretariat GDP gross domestic product UN/ECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa GVCs global value chains UN/ECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe ICT information and communication technology UN/ECLAC United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean IFF illicit financial flows UN/ESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia ILO International Labour Organization and the Pacific IMF International Monetary Fund UN/ESCWA United Nations Economic and Social Commission for INDC intended nationally determined contribution Western Asia LDCs least developed countries UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development LME London Metal Exchange UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change MDBs multilateral development banks UNWTO World Tourism Organization MDGs Millennium Development Goals WGP world gross product MFN most favoured nation WTO World Trade Organization vi World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 Executive summary Prospects for global macroeconomic development The world economy stumbled in 2015 The world gross product is projected to grow by a mere 2.4 per cent in 2015, a significant downward revision from the 2.8 per cent forecast in the World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2015. More than seven years after the global financial crisis, policymak- ers around the world still face enormous challenges in stimulating investment and reviving global growth. The world economy has been held back by several major headwinds: per- sistent macroeconomic uncertainties and volatility; low commodity prices and declining trade flows; rising volatility in exchange rates and capital flows; stagnant investment and diminishing productivity growth; and a continued disconnect between finance and real