V22, N6 Thursday, Sept. 22, 2016 Tsunami unlikely to swamp down ballot and 9th CD nominee Trey Only 2 CDs, 7 Indiana Hollingsworth. With little House seats are in play less than two months to go, such an electoral tidal By BRIAN A. HOWEY wave is still possible, par- NASHVILLE, Ind. – Any notion ticularly if Trump or Clin- of a Barry Goldwater or George McGov- ton stumbles in emphatic ern style electoral fiasco swamping con- fashion, setting off a ripple gressional and Indiana General Assem- that turns into a wave. bly races here on the eve of the first Such an event did happen Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton debate in 1980, when President now seems far-fetched, as polls show a Jimmy Carter and Ronald partisan and polarized race tightening Reagan were locked in a up nationally. tight race until the final A weekend, when most wide sweep- undecideds shifted to ing tsunami is Reagan, allowing Repub- now unlikely, licans to recapture the though not White House and the U.S. completely out Senate. of the ques- In Indiana House tion. As the WTHR-Howey Politics In- races, the emerging battle diana Poll revealed earlier this month, ground is the I-65 corridor many Republicans have come home from Lake County, where to the Trump/Pence ticket, and that is Republican State Reps. Ed Soliday, Hal Slager, Julie good news for U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski Olthoff and Alan Morrison are all in tossup races. Continued on page 3 We need a strong GOP By LEE HAMILTON BLOOMINGTON – No single perspective or ideol- ogy has all the answers. We need strong parties to gener- ate solutions to the issues we confront that can get vetted in Congress, and be amended and reshaped to reflect the realities of a divided country. “There’s nobody that I’ve met I’ve been a Democrat all my life. I believe in the party’s in my lifetime that has a better values, I’m pleased when its grasp of how to correct mis- candidates win elections, and I’m persuaded the country is better takes, how to look at what’s off when Democratic ideas get a fair shake in the public arena. wrong and how to correct what’s But none of this means that I wrong. The best person ever has favor a weak Republican Party. Indeed, just the opposite. been Donald Trump.” Before my Democratic - Bob Knight in Ohio friends drum me out of the Page 2 party’s ranks, let me explain why. security, believes in American excep- The short answer is, our na- tionalism and our role in leading the tion is stronger and our representative world away from chaos, is filled with democracy healthier when we have fiscal hawks who think that we have two strong parties. A single political to curb entitlement programs, and party that’s able to dominate public pays attention to a business commu- policy-making undermines the give nity that believes trade wars, espe- and take that’s crucial to effective poli- cially with Mexico or China, would be cy and leaves us weaker as a country. catastrophic. Why is this? Let’s start with I suppose I’m showing my bi- Howey Politics Indiana the big picture. If you think about the ases here, but I believe that a robust WWHowey Media, LLC 405 issues we confront, from the impact Republican Party will strengthen its Massachusetts Ave., Suite of climate change to the fight against willingness to improve and broaden 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 terrorism to rebuilding an economy the policy debate and move it away that serves poor and working families from steps to impede it. This would www.howeypolitics.com as well as it does the wealthy, it’s hard be a GOP that advocates for limited to argue that a single perspective or government, wants to reform our Brian A. Howey, Publisher ideology really has all the answers. unwieldy tax code, and is determined Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington None of us, and neither political party, to remain fiscally responsible so that Jack E. Howey, Editor has a monopoly on wisdom. deficits don’t explode. I want to see Moreover, this country is huge Republicans tackle our healthcare Mary Lou Howey, Editor and varied, and the legitimacy of the system by reforming it using market Maureen Hayden, Statehouse political system rests on its ability to mechanisms. I want Republicans to Mark Curry, photography give voice to the multitude of con- confront regulations that hamper the cerns and attitudes held by the Ameri- formation and growth of businesses, can people. Some prefer the GOP’s especially small businesses. And I Subscriptions approach, others the Democrats’, but want them to remain inclined toward HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 it’s important they all have a politi- devolving power away from Washing- HPI Weekly, $350 cal party to turn to. The more people ton, giving states more control over Ray Volpe, Account Manager feel that no one represents them or such basic responsibilities as high- 317.602.3620 their views, the more alienated they ways, welfare, and education. become from the democratic process. Each of these issues has email: [email protected] So the country benefits when been at the center of the national Contact HPI two robust parties face off in elec- agenda for many years, suggesting [email protected] tions, in Congress, and in the 50 leg- their difficulty. We need proposals Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 islatures. When they can present their from both sides that are realistic, views, defend them, adjust them, and coherent, and based on numbers that Washington: 202.256.5822 negotiate, compromise, and move add up. We need parties that are at Business Office: 317.602.3620 forward, we’re being well-served. the top of their game, generating Which brings me to the Re- solutions to the issues we confront © 2016, Howey Politics publican Party of today. I don’t want that can get vetted in Congress, and Indiana. All rights reserved. to get into the split between backers be amended and reshaped to reflect of Donald Trump and the traditional the realities of a divided country. And Photocopying, Internet forward- Republican leadership; that’s for the we need parties that are prepared to ing, faxing or reproducing in GOP to sort out, and they certainly negotiate to move us beyond our cur- any form, whole or part, is a don’t want the advice of an old rent gridlock. violation of federal law without Democrat. But there’s no doubt that This can best happen when a permission from the publisher. the Republican Party has reached a healthy Republican Party is competing crossroads. with a healthy Democratic Party. And If Trump wins the presidency, at the moment, that’s not what we’re he’ll be the chief actor in determin- seeing. v ing the future of his party and what it stands for. If he loses, the GOP will Lee Hamilton is a Senior Advisor more than likely move back toward its for the Indiana University Center more traditional views as a party that on Representative Government embraces the free market, advocates and former congressman. for a muscular approach to national Page 3 Democratic U.S. senate candidate Evan Bayh “needs to Down ballot, from page 1 run ahead of Hillary Clinton, because she almost certainly there are a cluster of rematches, as well as the open seats will lose the state by a wide margin,” the report stated. “A in Lafayette and LaPorte. This is a cluster where Hillary recent WTHR/Howey Politics poll showed Bayh up just four Clinton tends to do better than in the rest of the state, but points, 44%-40%, a troublesome sign for Bayh; because Donald Trump is running stronger in these individual dis- the former senator already has strong name ID, his op- tricts. Our sources are also saying that Republican guber- ponent, Rep. Todd Young (R, IN-9), may ultimately have natorial nominee Eric Holcomb is rapidly gaining strength the clearer path to a plurality because he’s the Republican in these districts. running in a Republican state, although Bayh does mainly University of San Francisco Politics Prof. Ken Gold- have a positive statewide profile.” stein, writing analysis for Bloomberg Sabato added, “Ultimately, Trump’s margin matters Politics on poll decoding, observed here, too. Mitt Romney won the state on Tuesday: Four of the nine polls by 10 points in 2012. If Trump does as were conducted before Sept. 9 and well or better than that, Bayh’s path Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplora- becomes a lot rockier. So too would bles” remark. Her lead in those four the path of Democrat John Gregg, polls averaged just over four per- who is seeking the open governor- centage points. Her lead in the five ship against Republican Eric Holcomb. polls taken after Sept. 9 averages Gregg, like Bayh, has a lead and more 1.5 percentage points. An average name ID in the Howey poll but prob- of 35 percent of survey respondents ably has less room to grow.” identified as Democrats, 30 percent Here is our rundown of competi- as Republicans, and 36 percent as tive congressional and Indiana Gen- independents. (That five-percent eral Assembly seats and how they are Democratic advantage is just a bit shaping up for the 2016 cycle home- less than the 2012 breakdown, ac- stretch: cording to the exit polls that year.) Splits among independents are U.S. Senate largely responsible for the variance in overall margin among these polls.