African Futures 2050 The next forty years Jakkie Cilliers, Barry Hughes and Jonathan Moyer Monograph 175 January 2011 Contents List of fi gures and tables . iii List of abbreviations . .iv Acknowledgements . ix Preface . x Introduction . xii Perspectives on the future of Africa . xxii The African Futures Project . xv Content and structure of this report . .xviii Chapter 1 Africa in the world . 1 Economic shift to Asia . 3 African development – like India? . 6 Africa intertwined with Europe . 8 Conclusion . 10 Chapter 2 Human development . 11 African population growth . 13 Human development . 17 Conclusion . 25 Chapter 3 Economic growth and transformation . 27 African economic growth . 28 Monograph 175 i African Futures 2050 Economic transformation: growth and diversity . 33 Economic transformation: critical foundations . 46 Conclusion . 61 Chapter 4 Sociopolitical change . 63 List of fi gures and tables Democratisation . 64 The rule of law and absence of corruption . 70 Domestic stability and violent confl ict . 73 Conclusion . 79 Figure 1 The major models of the IFs system . xvii Chapter 5 Map 1 Regions of the African Futures Project 2050 . .xix Alternative African futures . 81 The challenges of African development . 85 Figure 1.1 Global material power index: Africa and major global powers . 2 Alternative paths of African development . 87 Figure 1.2 GDP (at purchasing power parity) of Africa and major global powers . 4 Notes . 91 Figure 1.3 China-Africa trade in $ billions 1995–2008 . 5 Figure 2.1 African population in global context . 12 Figure 2.2 African population in regional context . 13 Figure 2.3 African fertility rates . 14 Figure 2.4 Demographic dividends, Africa in global context . 15 Figure 2.5 Urban population as share of the total, Africa in global context . 16 Figure 2.6 Human development index (HDI), Africa in global context . 18 Figure 2.7 Literacy, Africa in global context . 19 Figure 2.8 African literacy . 20 Figure 2.9 African life expectancy . 21 Figure 2.10 Communicable disease mortality by subtype for Southern Africa: 2010 and 2030 . 22 Figure 2.11 Communicable disease mortality by subtype for Eastern Africa: 2010 and 2030 . 23 Figure 2.12 Years of life lost in Africa through major death cause groupings . 24 Figure 3. 1 Africa’s economic growth, 1961-2008 . 28 ii Institute for Security Studies Monograph 175 iii African Futures 2050 Jakkie Cilliers, Barry Hughes and Jonathan Moyer Figure 3.2 GDP per capita (MER) in African regions . 29 Figure 4.4 GDP per capita and transparency globally (UN subregions) . 71 Figure 3.3 GDP per capita (PPP) in African regions . 30 Figure 4.5 Transparency (reduced corruption) in African regions . 72 Figure 3.4 GDP per capita (PPP) of leading African and comparable emerging Figure 4.6 Global trends in armed confl ict, 1946–2008 . 73 powers . 31 Figure 4.7 Global confl ict trends 1999–2008 . 74 Figure 3.5 Extreme poverty in African regions (millions below $1,25 per person Figure 4.8 GDP per capita and state fragility globally (UN subregions) . 75 per day) . 32 Figure 3.6 Diversity in African economies and growth prospects . 33 Figure 5.1 The relative material power of the top four African (A4) countries . 83 Figure 3.7 Economic transformations of African countries . 35 Figure 5.2 Africa’s population and education pyramid, 2030 . 86 Figure 3.8 Economic transformations of African regions . 36 Figure 5.3 Alternative African futures . 88 Figure 3.9 African food production in global context . 38 Figure 5.4 African GDP per capita (at market exchange rates) in alternative Figure 3.10 African food production by region . 39 scenarios . 89 Figure 3.11 Precipitation change comparing end of 20th century with end of 21st century . 42 Figure 3.12 African energy production by type . 44 Figure 3.13 Required annual investment in African infrastructure in $ billion . 48 Figure 3.14 African vehicle ownership in global context . 49 Figure 3.15 Current global rail systems . 50 Figure 3.16 Percentage of people in Africa without access to safe water or improved sanitation . 51 Figure 3.17 Annual electricity consumption in African regions . 52 Figure 3.18 Mobile telephone and broadband penetration.