www.africa-confidential.com 5 March 2004 Vol 45 No 5 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL SOUTH AFRICA 2 UGANDA A ten-year test The ANC’s review of its first ten Double war years in power claims great strides Rebel massacres and party activists are shaking the National in providing housing, water and Resistance Movement’s political dominance electricity but has much less to say As pressure mounts on President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni to leave power by 2006 at the end of his about progress in cutting unemployment and HIV/AIDS. second elected term, both the military war in the north and the political war in the south are going badly for the government (AC Vol 44 No 24). Museveni’s political standing is based on the National Resistance Movement’s restoration of order in much of Uganda after the horrendous conflicts of the 1980s and its SA/CONGO-KINSHASA 4 willingness to reform the economy and establish an accountable form of government. All three are threatened by the current turn of events. Peace dividend With just two years to go, there seems little prospect of an orderly succession within the ruling NRM, Dreams of harnessing Congo’s let alone the possibility of free elections, which an opposition party or coalition might win. The volume massive hydroelectric resources to is literally being turned up in the war of words between opposition parties and the NRM. To counter the power Southern Africa and beyond popular, independent FM stations which regularly excoriate the government, two NRM loyalists, Local are moving towards reality. So too are the plans for the mining giants to Government Minister Tasisi Kabwegere and member of parliament William Sienda Sebalu are setting start new projects after Mbeki’s long up City FM to cover most of Uganda, including key rural areas, with a pro-government message. diplomatic engagement there. Ominously, the station will be run by Major Roland Kakooza Mutale, former head of the Kalangala Action Plan, a roughneck paramilitary group which tried to intimidate voters in the 2001 elections. Talks between government and political parties, chaired by Movement Political Commissar Crispus AFRICA/DIAMONDS 5 Kiyonga, are floundering. The leaders of the three traditional parties – James Rwanyarare of the Rough diamonds Uganda People’s Congress, Paul Ssemogerere of the Democratic Party and Conservative Party leader Joash S. Mayanja-Nkangi – boycotted the talks after failing to agree pre-conditions. DiamondWorks company is moving into oil trading and exploration – and banking. Sceptics question the A party for Museveni reality behind the hectic activity. The ‘National Resistance Movement Organisation’ has finally registered as a party but oppositionists reject this, charging it has unfair access to government coffers. The mushrooming of political parties (53 have registered) undermines the opposition. Its best chance of success would be the mooted coalition between the traditional opposition parties and the activists (mainly ex-NRM) grouped under the Reform NIGERIA 6 Agenda. That may account for the rising political temperature in the south. Anenih’s irresistible Opinion is divided about the spate of atrocities by Lord’s Resistance Army fighters in the north. In early January, the Ugandan army commander, Major General Henry Aronda Nyakairima, made yet another rise prediction of victory against the LRA after the Uganda People’s Defence Forces scored some significant After the murder of A.K.Dikibo, successes. Then the LRA responded, with two devastating attacks on camps of displaced people. It killed political veteran Anthony Anenih has some 50 people outside Lira in early February and 200 in the Barlonyo massacre at the end of the month. emerged as Chairman of the ruling UPDF intelligence was improving: the army claimed to have neutralised ‘Gen.’ Yadin Charles PDP’s trustees, pegging level with party Chairman Audu Ogbeh. Tabuley, alleged to have led LRA incursions into eastern Uganda (and previously reported dead); along with ‘Gen.’ Acelam, the chief of military intelligence; army commander Yadin Tolbert Nyeko (also previously reported dead) and the shadowy ‘Gen.’ Dominic Ogwen, said to have been a senior director GAMBIA 6 of LRA operations. The LRA’s deputy leader, Vincent Otti, and followers were said to have been forced back into Sudan. What is certain is that the LRA’s leader, Joseph Kony, remains armed, active and living Babagate or floodgate in National Islamic Front-controlled areas of southern Sudan. Gambians question President The massacres involved about 300 LRA raiders instead of the more usual 30-40. Local religious Jammeh’s anti-corruption leaders, among the few to keep contact with the LRA, said they were a publicity stunt in reply to campaign: many see it as a front to government victory claims. They attracted large numbers of foreign journalists and if the LRA’s leaders deflect Western critics or, more dangerously, to settle old scores. want publicity, they may be tempted to embark on an even greater slaughter next time. Museveni visited the district, apologised for the UPDF’s mistakes and removed the local commander, Lieutenant Colonel Emmy Mulindwa. The local volunteer militias, meant to be the cornerstone of POINTERS 8 security strategy for protecting civilians, had proved incompetent. Militiamen complained about inadequate training, insufficient arms and late pay. Nigeria/USA, Congo- The LRA’s latest tactics are fuelling ethnic hatred: the LRA leadership is Acholi and most of the victims K, Algeria & Western in the last two massacres were Langi. In Lira after the Barlonyo massacre, Langi rioters beat a man to Sahara death and burned Acholi property; a Lira District councillor, Franco Ajur, and Joe Wancha of Radio Wa, a Langi station, were accused of making inflammatory statements. In the Acholi town of Gulu there 5 March 2004 Africa Confidential Vol 45 No 5 were reprisals against Langi people. qualified to fill them. The obvious long-term answer is more and better Kampala’s official line on Sudan is that it no longer backs the LRA: education and training. Better-educated Zimbabweans flock across Uganda doesn’t want to be accused of backing Col. John Garang de Beitbridge to take these jobs, helping South African firms to prosper Mabior’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement. Senior but stirring local resentment. Relaxing immigration rules to attract Ugandan officials say they are satisfied that Sudan’s President Omer skilled foreigners could give the economy a quick fillip, since each Hassan Ahmed el Beshir, and Defence Minister, Gen. Bakri Hassan doctor, banker, accountant or mechanic creates jobs for several unskilled Salih, no longer support the LRA and have tried to curb abuses by workers. However, an influx of qualified Congolese, Ghanaians, rogue Sudanese army officers. The NIF regime still stands accused of Nigerians and Zimbabweans – even some Europeans – would do little failing to help flush Kony out of his safe haven in Sudan. Privately, the for community relations. officials say Khartoum still backs the LRA. After his State of the Nation address in early February, President Having apologised, Museveni returned to his usual confident tone. Thabo Mbeki sounded a bit smug: ‘We do not foresee that there will He again claimed that, by restricting defence spending, donors had be any need for new and major policy initiatives’. He added that the frustrated government efforts to defeat the LRA. Diplomats protested task for the decade would be to ensure ‘the vigorous implementation vigorously, in a statement signed by British High Commissioner of these policies’. Mbeki seemed to be suggesting that holding the ship Adam Wood and United States Ambassador Jimmy Kolker. steady was the only way to bring about ‘the winning, people-centred, The recent massacres embarrass the USA, which had claimed society of which Nelson Mandela spoke’. Along with the steady ship, success in helping with UPDF training, intelligence and logistics. This a much faster rate of growth is needed to lift more than 7 mn. South had made all the difference, one source told Africa Confidential. There Africans who live below the national poverty line. are also reports of British troops helping with training. The initiative How to achieve that growth remains central to political debate. The for a peaceful settlement remains stalled although a row between the mainstream ANC position articulated by Mbeki and Finance Minister Presidential Commissioner in Gulu, Max Omeda, and Father Carlos Trevor Manuel is that the neo-liberal economic strategy of balanced Rodriguez, a leading peace campaigner, has calmed. Church leaders budgets, lower direct taxes and phased privatisation is building the have provided some of the few positive signs of peace talks. Rodriguez foundation for sustained growth. The proof, Manuel said, is that he had criticised the army and still opposes an investigation by the was able to report in his budget speech last month, ‘the longest period International Criminal Court into LRA war crimes, saying this could of continuous growth for over 50 years – 20 consecutive quarters’. make a negotiated settlement impossible. The difficulty is to know That may be true but the growth has not been fast enough – how to negotiate with an armed group which seems to have no policies, averaging 2.75 per cent over the past five years – to make massive cuts no specific demands and no mercy. in either poverty or joblessness. Manuel forecasts growth of 2.9 per cent this year, though, rising to 3.6 per cent and 4 per cent in 2005 and 2006 respectively. Whether or not this is his last budget, as financial SOUTH AFRICA pundits believe, his international standing remains high: should he leave politics, he would be assured of a senior position in a major international financial institution. His appointment to British Prime A ten-year test Minister Tony Blair’s new Commission on Africa (AC Vol 45 No 4) means he will be working closely with his friend and colleague, UK The government set itself an examination Chancellor Gordon Brown.