DOCKETED Docket Number: 17-HYD-01 Project Title: Renewable Hydrogen Transportation Fuel Production TN #: 233292 Final Project Report - Roadmap for the Deployment and Document Title: Buildout of Renewable Hydrogen Production Plants in California The Roadmap reveals key aspects of renewable hydrogen production and delivery chain which are expected to help minimize cost, minimize adverse environmental impacts, capture positive and negative learnings from early projects, guide process improvements, and contribute policy improvements. Further it gathered data on “as-built” costs to Description: provide a fact base to support investment analysis by value chain participants and incentive program development by state agencies. Maps of potential need for renewable hydrogen fuel in various future scenarios show growth out from major urban centers. Filer: Patty Paul Organization: California Energy Commission Submitter Role: Commission Staff Submission Date: 6/3/2020 11:17:47 AM Docketed Date: 6/3/2020 California Energy Commission Clean Transportation Program FINAL PROJECT REPORT Roadmap for the Deployment and Buildout of Renewable Hydrogen Production Plants in California Prepared for: California Energy Commission Prepared by: UC Irvine Advanced Power and Energy Program Gavin Newsom, Governor June 2020 | CEC-600-2020-002 California Energy Commission Primary Authors: Jeffrey G. Reed Emily E. Dailey Brendan P. Shaffer Blake A. Lane Robert J. Flores Amber A. Fong G. Scott Samuelsen University of California Irvine Advanced Power and Energy Program University of California, Irvine 92627-3550 www.apep.uci.edu Contract Number: 600-17-008 Akasha Kaur Khalsa Project Manager Elizabeth John Office Manager ADVANCED FUEL PRODUCTION OFFICE John P. Butler II Acting Deputy Director FUELS AND TRANSPORTATION Drew Bohan Executive Director Disclaimer This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission (CEC). It does not necessarily represent the views of the CEC, its employees, or the State of California. The CEC, the State of California, its employees, contractors, and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the use of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the CEC nor has the CEC passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The University of California, Irvine, Advanced Power and Energy Program (UCI APEP) would like to thank the CEC Clean Transportation Program, formerly known as the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program, for support of this project. UCI APEP also wishes to thank the several dozen industry stakeholders who provided input to this analysis and those who provided comments to the docket. i PREFACE Assembly Bill 118 (Núñez, Chapter 750, Statutes of 2007) created the Clean Transportation Program, formerly known as the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program. The statute authorizes the CEC to develop and deploy alternative and renewable fuels and advanced transportation technologies to help attain the state’s climate change policies. Assembly Bill 8 (Perea, Chapter 401, Statutes of 2013) reauthorizes the Clean Transportation Program through January 1, 2024, and specifies that the CEC allocate up to $20 million per year (or up to 20 percent of each fiscal year’s funds) in funding for hydrogen station development until at least 100 stations are operational. The Clean Transportation Program has an annual budget of about $100 million and provides financial support for projects that: • Reduce California’s use and dependence on petroleum transportation fuels and increase the use of alternative and renewable fuels and advanced vehicle technologies. • Produce sustainable alternative and renewable low-carbon fuels in California. • Expand alternative fueling infrastructure and fueling stations. • Improve the efficiency, performance and market viability of alternative light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle technologies. • Retrofit medium- and heavy-duty on-road and nonroad vehicle fleets to alternative technologies or fuel use. • Expand the alternative fueling infrastructure available to existing fleets, public transit, and transportation corridors. • Establish workforce-training programs and conduct public outreach on the benefits of alternative transportation fuels and vehicle technologies. To be eligible for funding under the Clean Transportation Program, a project must be consistent with the CEC’s annual Clean Transportation Program Investment Plan Update. The CEC issued contract number 600-17-008, the Roadmap for the Deployment and Buildout of Renewable Hydrogen Generation Plants Project. Contract 600-17-008 was approved for funding at the CEC Business Meeting May 9, 2018, and finalized on June 29, 2019, by the Department of General Services. ii ABSTRACT This report presents a roadmap for the buildout and deployment of renewable hydrogen production plants in California. The report provides a fact base to support policy decisions and inform stakeholders. The supporting analysis assesses the demand, in the transportation and other sectors, for and cost of renewable hydrogen to serve California. The analysis includes demand projections, forecasts of technology progress, supply chain costs, and temporal and spatial plant siting scenarios. The work places specific focus on lessons from early project activity and projection through 2030, with higher-level forecasts through 2050. The work concludes with research needs and policy recommendations to successfully launch and scale the California renewable hydrogen sector. The conclusion is that, with appropriate policy support, the renewable hydrogen sector can reach self-sustainability (price point at parity with conventional fuel on a fuel-economy adjusted basis) by the mid- to late 2020s. Keywords: Hydrogen, renewable hydrogen, hydrogen production, roadmap, deployment, buildout Please use the following citation for this report: Reed, Jeffrey, Emily Dailey, Brendan Shaffer, Blake Lane, Robert Flores, Amber Fong, G. Scott Samuelsen. 2020. Roadmap for the Deployment and Buildout of Renewable Hydrogen Production Plants in California. CEC. Publication Number: CEC-600-2020-002. iii (THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK) iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. i Preface……….. .................................................................................................................... ii Abstract………. ................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents................................................................................................................ v List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii List of Tables…. ................................................................................................................ xii Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 1 Overview ......................................................................................................................... 1 Stakeholder Input..................................................................................................................................... 2 Renewable Hydrogen Demand Forecast (Chapter 2) ................................................................................... 2 Technology Characterization (Chapter 3) ................................................................................................... 3 Feedstock Supply and Cost (Chapter 4) ..................................................................................................... 3 Plant-Gate-to-Dispenser Cost Evolution (Chapter 5) .................................................................................... 3 Dispensed Cost of Renewable Hydrogen Evolution (Chapter 6) .................................................................... 3 Candidate Site Identification ..................................................................................................................... 4 Integrated Buildout Scenarios and Roadmap (Chapters 7 and 8) ................................................................. 4 Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 5 Market Development Recommendations .................................................................................................... 5 Future RD&D Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 1: Introduction and Purpose of the Roadmap ...................................................... 7 CHAPTER 2: Renewable Hydrogen Demand Scenarios ........................................................ 9 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 9 Light-Duty Vehicles ................................................................................................................................. 10