Stirling Council Agenda Item No.3 Date of Special Environment and Meeting: 16 December 2019 Housing Committee Not Exempt Aberfoyle Flood Alleviation Scheme: Scottish Government Funding Submission Purpose & Summary The purpose of this report is to provide Elected Members with an update on the emerging flood alleviation scheme, including an updated cost estimate for the scheme. The report also seeks approval for submission of scheme funding prioritisation application to the Scottish Government. Recommendations Committee is asked to: 1. note the current scheme progress; and 2. approve the submission of scheme funding prioritisation application to the Scottish Government. Resource Implications For Round 1 schemes the Scottish Government provided 80% grant funding with the Council required to fund the 20% of total costs of the scheme. The Scottish Government round 1 contribution of 80% grant was fixed at tender stage with a commitment to provide a minimum of £42M/year nationally over a ten year timeframe from 2015 - 2025. Any schemes extending beyond tender estimate would not receive any additional funds at that stage. The Scottish Government have yet to decide on grant funding commitments for round 2 schemes, this may deviate from the current 80% grant commitment. At this present time, it has been indicated that at least 50 schemes will be submitted for prioritisation in December 2020, with a likelihood that this figure will increase. This is likely to result in high competition for funding. The Current scheme cost estimate for the Aberfoyle Flood Alleviation Scheme is £16M. Based on the current Scottish Government funding arrangements of 80%, the council would be required to contribute the remaining total costs (20%), estimated at £3.2M. Whilst a high degree of investigation and preparatory work has already been undertaken to minimise risk, there is still potential for cost estimates to change as a fully detailed design is realised. Any increase in cost estimate after tender acceptance will have to be funded by Stirling Council. Based on other flood alleviation schemes it is estimated that the Councils contribution could be in the region of £4M. If the Aberfoyle Flood Alleviation Scheme was selected for prioritisation in August 2020 a further report would be brought before Council to seek approval for the Council’s contribution. Legal & Risk Implications and Mitigation Submission of application for Scottish Government funding does not mean commitment to onward promotion of, or investment in, the Scheme. If the Aberfoyle Flood Alleviation Scheme is successful during the prioritisation process, approximately £3.2M will need to be requested from the Capital Programme, with funding not likely to be required before the 2022/2023 financial year. 1. Background 1.1. Aberfoyle is disrupted by annual flooding that impacts on a single road access to the school and communities for 14 miles beyond Aberfoyle. Residential and business properties in the village have been flooded on at least 6 occasions in the last 10 years. 1.2. Aberfoyle was identified within cycle 1 of the Forth Local Flood Risk Management Planning framework as requiring a flood protection scheme. The Council committed through the approval of the Flood Risk Management Plan to deliver a range of actions including a flood protection scheme in Aberfoyle. 1.3. Scottish Government round 1 contribution of 80% grant was fixed at tender stage with a commitment to provide minimum £42M/year nationally over a ten year timeframe from 2015 - 2025. 1.4. The Aberfoyle scheme has been through several iterations based on community consultation outcomes. Low-level protection against annual flooding was initially investigated, this was cost prohibitive with an estimated £5M required to protect just 5 properties to a 5-10 years standard of protection. This scheme was not prioritised in cycle 1 and due to low cost-benefit it dropped off the list of prioritised schemes and therefore did not receive any Scottish Government grant. 1.5. The 1 in 100 preferred alignment provided the greatest level of protection and greatest cost-benefit value making it the most likely option to gain funding. 1.6. Numerous iterations and options including upstream storage and natural flood risk management have been explored and discounted. Direct defences remain the only viable protection method for Aberfoyle. The community were re-consulted after severe flooding in 2015 and a more extensive scheme proposed that would meet community needs. The current proposed scheme is over 1km in length protecting all property and roads from the primary school to the Allt Mhangam, offering 100 year standard of protection. 1.7. Following on from initial optioneering studies the preferred alignment was agreed. The design of the Aberfoyle flood protection scheme is progressing through the next stages of the design process to provide sufficient information to enable a bid to be submitted in December 2019 to the Scottish Governments Flood Risk Management Fund (Round 2). 1.8. £150k has been allocated this year (2019/20) within the capital programme to progress this and officers are working closely with consultants to develop aspects of design. Many design aspects are already well progressed including various elements of construction design, environmental assessments and project benefit assessments. 2. Considerations 2.1 If agreed by the Environment and Housing Committee, the design for a 100 year standard of protection scheme will be submitted to round 2 funding prioritisation process December 2019. 2.2 The proposed scheme will provide multiple benefits beyond flood protection. The scheme will provide a safe route to school as well as a shared cycle/walking path extending from the existing sustrans network behind the woollen mill to Milton. The shared surface will connect communities through sustainable travel access, improve safety taking pedestrians and cyclists away from the car park and the road and improve sustainable access to Loch Ard. 2.3 Other multi-benefit options are currently being assessed that would provide community benefits, environmental enhancements and contribute to local tourism. These include upstream peatbog restoration, enhancement of the wildlife site and other local fields with access provision. 2.4 Current funding in 2019/20 financial year is allowing key aspects of the detailed design to progress prior to submission to cycle 2 prioritisation. The programme of works has been revised to allow the most comprehensive package to be submitted by December prioritisation deadline. 2.5 SEPA have stated that the outcome of round 2 prioritisation submission will not be revealed until August 2020. There is potential for SEPA to query submissions and ask for additional information prior to completing the prioritisation process in August. 2.6 Consultants working on behalf of the Scottish Government are developing a set of 17 metrics under which the scheme be will scored. The metrics centre around long term sustainability including items such as; number of people protected, percentage of community impacted, interruptions to utilities, community facilities flooded, transport and infrastructure disruption and environmental analysis. 2.7 Engagement with Balfour Beatty, via the SCAPE procurement route (Scape Group is a public-sector owned procurement specialist that offers a suite of direct award frameworks, property services and innovative design solutions), has allowed for detailed work on scheme cost estimates to be undertaken. £5M was previously estimated for the 5-10 year scheme proposal which was not progressed as a Round 1 project due to low cost benefit analysis. The initial cost estimate on the more extensive 100 year scheme was £8.6M. 2.8 However, the most accurate scheme costs is now sitting at a total of £16M. The scheme is being designed to provide multiple benefits such as active travel and safe routes to school. The scheme design will contribute to resilient communities, economic regeneration, environmental enhancements and increased tourism fulfilling a number of community, council and Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park objectives. 2.9 The key reasons for the cost increase include five main areas; 2.9.1. the Manse road bridge is in poor condition and cannot accommodate construction traffic giving rise to the need for a temporary bridge if not an entirely new bridge, at this time only a temporary bridge has been costed for. 2.9.2. There is a requirement for river realignment that was not initially anticipated upstream of the manse road bridge, this is required to allow space for the scheme to be constructed and for traffic to pass given this is a single road access that cannot be closed. 2.9.3. The cost of utility diversions has become more apparent with use of ground penetrating radar analysis highlighting unavoidable clashes with the scheme. As the back drainage design has developed and investigations carried out, the scale of the required pipes and pumping stations has become clearer. 2.9.4. The need to defend additional areas has also arisen through the design process as extending the length of the scheme has been shown to have some minimal hydraulic impact on property out with the scheme; therefore further identified properties need to be protected or risk legal challenge. 2.9.5. The addition of other multi-benefit features such as a shared cycle/walkway from the car park to Milton have also realised some additional cost. Some of these cost may be met through alternative grant funding streams. 2.10 The council have been undertaking early contractor engagement with Balfour Beatty through the SCAPE framework, at this stage we have not committed to any contractual arrangements for the construction phase of the scheme as it is unknown at this point whether the scheme will be grant funded through Scottish Government. 2.11 The earliest possible construction start would be 2022 though funding is not likely to be available in that financial year due to other unfinished schemes that will roll over from Round 1.