“Knowledge-based tools for sustainable governance of energy and climate adaptation in the Nordic periphery” Knowledge-based tools for sustainable governance of energy and climate adaptation in the Nordic periphery (K-Base) Janne Hukkinen, Klaus Georg Hansen, Richard Langlais, Rasmus Ole Rasmussen, Steen Jeppson, Jarkko Levänen, Freia Lund Sørensen, Peter Schmitt, Stefanie Lange NORDREGIO 2009 Nordic Council of Ministers Research Programme Report 2009:7 ISSN 1654-2290 Nordregio P.O. Box 1658 SE-111 86 Stockholm, Sweden [email protected] www.nordregio.se www.norden.se Nordic co-operation takes place among the countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, as well as the autonomous territories of the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland. The Nordic Council is a forum for co-operation between the Nordic parliaments and governments. The Council consists of 87 parliamentarians form the Nordic countries. The Nordic Council takes policy initiatives and monitors Nordic co-operation. Founded in 1952. The Nordic Council of Ministers is a forum of co-operation between the Nordic governments. The Nordic Council of Ministers implements Nordic co-operation. The prime ministers have the overall responsibility. Its activities are co-ordinated by the Nordic ministers for co-operation, the Nordic Committee for co-operation and portfolio ministers. Founded in 1971. Stockholm, Sweden 2009 Contents 1. Introduction 11 1.1 Objective and key findings 11 1.2 Approach 11 1.3 Structure of the report 14 2. Analytical approaches for sustainability governance 15 2.1 Approaches for micro-level analysis 15 2.1.1 Inferences from historical analogies 15 2.1.2 Public information flow analysis 16 2.1.3 Micro-level actor network analysis 17 2.2 Approaches for macro-level analysis 17 2.2.1 Transition analysis 18 2.2.2 Macro-level actor network analysis 19 3. Application of knowledge-based tools for energy and climate adaptation in the Nordic periphery 21 3.1 Knowledge-based tools for policy anticipation phase 21 3.1.1 Indicators of historical analogies 21 3.2 Knowledge-based tools for policy planning phase 22 3.2.1 MCDA – Multicriteria Decision Analysis 22 3.2.2 Technological roadmapping 23 3.2.3 Indicators of public information flow 23 3.2.4 Micro-level actor network tool 24 3.3 Knowledge-based tools for policy implementation phase 25 3.3.1 Macro-level actor network tool 25 4. Feasibility of knowledge-based tools for practitioners 26 References 27 Preface e research programme, ‘Internationalisation of regional development policies – Needs and demands in the Nordic countries’ was commissioned by the Nordic Council of Ministers in the spring of 2005. e aim of this programme is to undertake research on key issues, where it has been identified that new knowledge is needed, and where such knowledge could be seen to benefit the development and implementation of regional development policy in the Nordic countries. e basis for the research programme is its Nordic character. Research should lead to new knowledge both for the academic world and for the world of policy and practice. Projects should add ‘Nordic value’, i.e. they should produce knowledge of relevance for several regions and countries across Norden. e research should moreover be comparative and collaborative across at least three Nordic countries or self-governed areas. ree themes of high priority for the research programme have been identified; ‘regional governance’, ‘innovation and regional growth’, and ‘demography and labour migration’. In addition to these priorities two additional crosscutting themes were also defined; ‘the enlargement of the EU and the challenges for Nordic regional development policies’ and the broad topic of ‘the three dimensions of sustainable regional development’; i.e. social, economic and environmental sustainability. e research programme has been launched in two rounds. In the first round during the spring of 2005 it was decided to fund five projects. ese were reported during 2007. In the second round during the spring of 2007 it was decided that a further five projects should be funded. ese will be reported in 2008 and 2009. All project reports are published in this publication series dedicated to this programme. At the end of the programme, a synthesising report will also be produced where the most important findings are discussed. is report is planned to be published in the winter 2009/2010. Nordregio wishes to thank the Nordic Senior Official Committee for Regional Policy and the Nordic Council of Ministers for providing this unique opportunity to develop new research- based knowledge and for encouraging cooperation and the exchange of ideas between Nordic researchers. Nordregio would furthermore like to thank all of the involved research teams and the programme’s Steering Committee for their continuing contributions to the Nordic discourse on regional development. Ole Damsgaard Margareta Dahlström Director Coordinator of the research programme Authors’ Preface What should local policy makers and practitioners in Nordic peripheries do in the face of climate change? The question is an urgent one, because the impacts of climate change are felt most dramatically in Northern latitudes. This urgency motivated our research group to tackle the question pragmatically, by way of cases that from a substantial point of view are only loosely related but from the perspective of local communities and livelihoods are vitally important. This report focuses on (1) the management of transitions to sustainable energy systems in West Norden, (2) the planning of an aluminium smelter in Greenland, (3) climate policy in Swedish municipalities, and (4) the implications of climate policy for reindeer management in Lapland. As a consequence of the studies, we can present a set of knowledge-based tools to assist policy makers and practitioners in their planning for sustainable adaptation to changes in energy provision and climate conditions. The case study working papers can be found as appendices. Knowledge-based tools are practical indicators or checklists. They provide critical signals of a significant turn of events in the policy process (policy anticipation, policy planning and policy implementation) that the policy maker or practitioner in the field ought to be able to distinguish in her daily work. We present the indicators and checklists in a generalizable form that practitioners and policy makers in peripheral regions outside Norden should also find helpful. The K-Base authors 10 NORDIC RESEARCH PROGRAMME 2005-2008. REPORT 7 1. Introduction 1.1 Objective and key findings Although geographically remote, Nordic peripheries are rapidly assuming center stage in global energy and climate policy. These regions are likely to experience the most dramatic impacts of intensified energy extraction and global climate change. Formulated as they are in national and supra-national centers of decision-making, energy and climate policies assume a contract between the center and the periphery with minimal asymmetries in costs and benefits. Unfortunately, asymmetries often cannot be avoided. As a result, the notions of Nordic identity, Nordic region and Nordic regional policy are more than ever intertwined with the global energy situation and global climate change. The situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Norden: a challenge because of the severe negative implications for the quality of life if energy and climate issues are not successfully governed; an opportunity because Nordic countries can become the model to be emulated elsewhere in regional adaptation to global change. The research project Knowledge-based tools for sustainable governance of energy and climate adaptation in the Nordic periphery (K-Base) has developed instruments for local level practitioners and policy makers with which they can face the challenges and opportunities in energy and climate policy. The objective of K-Base has been to develop knowledge-based tools for policy makers and practitioners in Nordic peripheries to assist them in planning for changes in energy provision and climatic conditions in a sustainable way. Our research group has tackled the task by drafting knowledge-based tools on the basis of five case studies: (1) Climate policy and reindeer management in Lapland, Finland, (2) Transitions to sustainable energy systems in West Norden, (3) Public information flow analysis and (4) Actor network analysis of the planning process to construct an aluminium smelter in Greenland, (5) Climate policy in Swedish municipalities. Our research has produced locally applicable knowledge-based tools for sustainable environmental governance in northern peripheries, applicable across policy levels and during different policy phases. During the policy anticipation phase, the knowledge-based tool we propose is the development of indicators that reveal analogies between contemporary and historical developments. For the policy planning phase, we propose indicators of public information flow, actor network tools, multicriteria decision analysis and technological roadmapping. During policy implementation, actor network tools applied simultaneously at multiple levels hold promise. 1.2 Approach Our approach has been to develop knowledge-based tools for coping with changes in energy provision and climate conditions by considering the policy process as a complex system with multiple actors, levels and phases. Table 1 summarizes the structure of our work by describing each analytical approach, its level of analysis, the