The Design, Feasibility and Cost Analysis of Sea Barrier Systems in Norfolk, Virginia and the Comparative Cost of Shoreline Barriers by Charles H. Hasenbank Submitted to the Department of Mechanical Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of Naval Engineer and Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 2020 © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2020. All rights reserved. Author................................................................ Department of Mechanical Engineering May 15, 2020 Certified by. Daniel Frey Professor of Mechanical Engineering Thesis Supervisor Accepted by . Nicolas Hadjiconstantinou Chairman, Department Committee on Graduate Theses 2 The Design, Feasibility and Cost Analysis of Sea Barrier Systems in Norfolk, Virginia and the Comparative Cost of Shoreline Barriers by Charles H. Hasenbank Submitted to the Department of Mechanical Engineering on May 15, 2020, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of Naval Engineer and Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering Abstract Protecting a coastline from the damage of a storm surge, or tidal flooding associ- ated with sea level rise, is a challenging and costly engineering endeavor. Low lying properties located directly on an ocean coastline are limited in protective solutions to include constructing shoreline barriers, increasing building elevations, or relocation. However, shoreline properties on an estuary are afforded the additional protective option of a dynamic sea barrier spanning the mouth of the bay or river. The Delta Works projects in the Netherlands pioneered the design and construc- tion of large scale dynamic sea barriers. Although similar projects have been built or proposed, the high costs have minimized wide spread implementation. Even with positive benefit-cost ratios of prevented property damage to sea barrier cost, the will- ingness to fund these multi-billion dollar projects is reduced when the probability of extreme coastal flooding is associated with 100 to 1000 year storms. However, ifsea level rise shifts the flooding probability to include king tides and annual storms, the perspective regarding the relative cost of a sea barrier system may soon change. This study serves as a design, feasibility and cost analysis of potential sea barrier systems in the Chesapeake Bay near Norfolk, Virginia. Several sea barrier concept designs were proposed, and analyzed against intermediate sea level rise scenarios for the year 2100, to determine feasibility based on topography and projected tide levels. The cost and performance of the design concepts were then examined to determine an optimal design. Finally, the cost of the optimal sea barrier system was compared to the notional cost of installing shoreline barriers along the extent of the estuary, to determine the most cost effective method of coastal flooding protection. Thesis Supervisor: Daniel Frey Title: Professor of Mechanical Engineering 3 4 Acknowledgments Dating back to my undergraduate studies as an Ocean Engineer, I have always enjoyed exploring the topics associated with coastline flooding protection and mitigation. In a era when sea level rise has the potential of severely disrupting coastal communities on a scale and frequency not previously imaginable, this field of study has become increasingly important. With that in mind, I want to thank Professor Daniel Frey, of the Mechanical Engineering Department at MIT, for supporting me as I studied this topic and for granting me the leeway to establish the bounds of the thesis topic. Additionally, I would like to thank Professor David Kriebel of the Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering Department at USNA, for providing guidance throughout the course of study as a subject matter expert in this field of study. Lastly, I would like to thank my family for their consistent support throughout my time at MIT. 5 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 6 Contents 1 Introduction 15 1.1 Project Background and Rationale . 16 1.2 Sea Level Rise Trends and Projections . 21 1.3 Mitigation Projects and Proposals . 29 1.4 Thesis Contributions . 33 2 Sea Barrier Feasibility Analysis 35 2.1 Study Locations . 35 2.2 Tidal Data and Sea Level Projections . 38 2.3 High Water Analysis . 42 2.3.1 Naval Station Norfolk Projected High Water Analysis . 42 2.3.2 Norfolk Naval Shipyard Projected High Water Analysis . 44 2.4 Low Water and Mean Sea Level Analysis . 47 2.4.1 Naval Station Norfolk Projected Low Water Analysis . 48 2.4.2 Norfolk Naval Shipyard Projected Low Water Analysis . 49 2.5 Norfolk, VA Storm Flooding Comparison . 50 3 Sea Barrier Concept Designs 51 3.1 Sea Barrier Concept Design One . 54 3.2 Sea Barrier Concept Design Two . 56 3.3 Sea Barrier Concept Design Three . 58 3.4 Sea Barrier Design Four . 60 3.5 Sea Barrier Design Five . 61 7 3.6 Sea Barrier Design Six . 62 4 Sea Barrier Performance Analysis 63 4.1 OMOE: Project Scale Analysis . 67 4.2 OMOE: Protection Area Analysis . 69 4.3 OMOE: Perimeter Flooding Analysis . 70 4.4 OMOE: Frequency of Operation Analysis . 72 4.5 OMOE: Maritime Traffic Impact Analysis . 73 4.6 OMOE: Environmental Impact Analysis . 75 4.7 OMOE Results . 76 5 Sea Barrier Cost Analysis 79 5.1 Cost Model . 88 5.2 Cost Analysis . 92 6 Sea Barrier Selection and Analysis 97 6.1 Cost vs Performance Analysis . 97 7 Shoreline Infrastructure Analysis 101 7.1 Shoreline Barrier System Cost Factors . 103 7.2 Shoreline Infrastructure Cost Analysis . 106 7.3 Hybrid Shoreline Barrier Cost Analysis . 110 8 Conclusion 117 8.1 Project Accomplishments and Findings . 117 8.2 Areas for Further Work . 124 A Sea Barrier Cost Model 125 B Sea Barrier Cost Analysis 139 C Shoreline Barrier Cost Model 145 D Shoreline Barrier Cost Analysis 149 8 List of Figures 1-1 High Tide Nuisance Flooding . 16 1-2 Nuisance Flooding Frequency at USNA . 17 1-3 Sewells Point Tide Station Flood Stage Events (1930s-2010s) . 18 1-4 Hampton Roads and Major Maritime Facilities . 20 1-5 Topographic Map of Norfolk, VA with Shoreline Elevations . 21 1-6 NOAA Extreme Water Levels for Norfolk, VA . 22 1-7 NOAA Sea Level Rise Trends for Norfolk, VA . 22 1-8 Sea Level Rise and Norfolk, VA . 23 1-9 Global Sea Level Rise Overview . 24 1-10 Regional Sea Level Rise Overview . 25 1-11 Sea Level Rise Projection Types . 26 1-12 Sea Level Rise Scenario Curves . 27 1-13 National Climate Assessment GMSL Scenarios Overview . 28 1-14 Flood Management Feasibility and Mitigation Studies . 30 2-1 Study Location One (Naval Station Norfolk) . 36 2-2 Study Location Two (Norfolk Naval Shipyard) . 37 2-3 Naval Station Norfolk Tidal and Extreme Water Data . 38 2-4 Norfolk Naval Shipyard Tidal and Extreme Water Data . 38 2-5 Naval Station Norfolk Sea Level Projections . 39 2-6 Norfolk Naval Shipyard Sea Level Projections . 39 2-7 NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer . 41 2-8 Naval Station Norfolk MHHW Tidal Projection (Year 2100) . 42 9 2-9 Naval Station Norfolk 1-YR Storm Projection (Year 2100) . 43 2-10 Naval Station Norfolk 10-YR Storm Projection (Year 2100) . 43 2-11 Naval Station Norfolk 100-YR Storm Projection (Year 2100) . 44 2-12 Norfolk Naval Shipyard MHHW Tidal Projection (Year 2100) . 45 2-13 Norfolk Naval Shipyard 1-YR Storm Projection (Year 2100) . 45 2-14 Norfolk Naval Shipyard 10-YR Storm Projection (Year 2100) . 46 2-15 Norfolk Naval Shipyard 100-YR Storm Projection (Year 2100) . 46 2-16 Naval Station Norfolk MLLW Tidal Projection (Year 2100) . 48 2-17 Naval Station Norfolk LMSL Tidal Projection (Year 2100) . 48 2-18 Norfolk Naval Shipyard MLLW Tidal Projection (Year 2100) . 49 2-19 Norfolk Naval Shipyard LMSL Tidal Projection (Year 2100) . 49 2-20 Norfolk, VA Study Area Storm Surge Flooding Comparison . 50 3-1 Arthur Kill Barrier Concept in the Greater New York City Area . 52 3-2 Jamaica Bay Barrier Concept in the Greater New York City Area . 53 3-3 Sea Barrier Concept Design One Chart View . 54 3-4 Sea Barrier Concept Design One Satellite View . 55 3-5 Sea Barrier Concept Design Two Chart View . 56 3-6 Sea Barrier Concept Design Two Satellite View . 57 3-7 Sea Barrier Concept Design Three Chart View . 58 3-8 Sea Barrier Concept Design Three Satellite View . 59 3-9 Sea Barrier Concept Design Four Chart View . 60 3-10 Sea Barrier Concept Design Four Satellite View . 60 3-11 Sea Barrier Concept Design Five Satellite View . 61 3-12 Sea Barrier Concept Design Six Satellite View . 62 4-1 Delta Works: Maeslantkering Sector Gate . 64 4-2 Delta Works: Eastern Scheldt Surge Barrier . 64 4-3 Chesapeake Bay Region DOD Installations . 69 4-4 Areas of Probable Perimeter Flooding . 71 4-5 Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay Tides (01-31JAN2020) . 72 10 4-6 Norfolk, Virginia Port Facilities . 74 4-7 Environmental Impact Areas . 75 4-8 OMOE Results Table . 77 4-9 FOM Comparison Graph . 77 4-10 Weighted Sum Comparison Graph . 77 4-11 Sea Barrier Concept Five Overview . 78 5-1 Delta Works Barrier Overview . 79 5-2 Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System (HSDRRS) . 80 5-3 GCCPRD Storm Surge Suppression Study . 80 5-4 USACE Coastal Texas Protection and Restoration Study . 81 5-5 USACE Norfolk Coastal Risk Management Study . 82 5-6 USACE New York and New Jersey Harbor and Tributaries Study . 83 5-7 HSDRRS: Seabrook (Top) and West Closure (Bottom) . 85 5-8 USACE Coastal Texas Study Preliminary Cost Ranges . 85 5-9 USACE Norfolk Coastal Risk Management Study Cost Data . 86 5-10 GCCPRD Storm Surge Suppression Study Cost Data . 86 5-11 Sea Barrier Reference Data for the USACE NY-NJ Study . 87 5-12 USACE NY-NJ Study Verrazano Narrows Sea Barrier Section Plan .