Commercial Space Transportation 2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts May 2006 Commercial Space Transportation (AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) HQ-020906.INDD 2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts About the Office of Commercial Space Transportation and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee The Federal Aviation Administration’s space transportation industry. Established Office of Commercial Space Transportation in 1985, COMSTAC is made up of senior (FAA/AST) licenses and regulates U.S. executives from the U.S. commercial space commercial space launch and reentry activity transportation and satellite industries, as authorized by Executive Order 12465 space-related state government officials, (Commercial Expendable Launch Vehicle and other space professionals. Activities) and 49 United States Code Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the The primary goals of COMSTAC are to: Commercial Space Launch Act). AST’s mission is to license and regulate commercial Evaluate economic, technological and launch and reentry operations to protect pub- institutional issues relating to the U.S. lic health and safety, the safety of property, commercial space transportation and the national security and foreign policy industry; interests of the United States. Chapter 701 and the 2004 U.S. Space Transportation Provide a forum for the discussion of Policy also direct the Federal Aviation issues involving the relationship between Administration to encourage, facilitate, and industry and government requirements; promote commercial launches and reentries. and The Commercial Space Transportation Make recommendations to the Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) pro- Administrator on issues and approaches vides information, advice, and recommen- for Federal policies and programs dations to the Administrator of the Federal regarding the industry. Aviation Administration within the Additional information concerning AST Department of Transportation (DOT) on and COMSTAC can be found on AST’s matters relating to the U.S. commercial web site, http://ast.faa.gov. Cover: Art by John Sloan (2006) i ii Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts Table of Contents Executive Summary . .1 Introduction . .3 Characteristics of the Commercial Space Transportation Market . .3 About the COMSTAC 2006 Commercial Geosynchronous Launch Demand Forecast . .3 About the FAA NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast . .3 2006 Combined Satellite and Launch Forecast . .3 COMSTAC 2006 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Forecast . .7 Executive Summary . .7 Background . .8 Forecast Methodology . .9 2006 COMSTAC Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast Results . .11 Near-Term Demand Model . .11 Satellite Launch Forecast Mass Class Trend . .12 Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Demand Forecasts . .13 Comparison to International Comprehensive Inputs . .13 Launch Vehicle Demand . .13 COMSTAC Demand Projection Versus Actual Launches Realized . .14 Factors That Affect Satellite Launch Realization . .14 Projecting Actual Satelllites Launched Using a Realization Factor . .15 Forecasted Satellite Demand Versus Actual Satellite Launches in 2005 . .16 Launch Assurance Agreements . .16 Factors That May Affect Future Demand . .16 Supplementary Questionnaire Results . .18 Commercial GSO Satellite Trends . .20 Trends in Number of Transponders per Satellite . .20 Trends in Average Satellite Mass . .21 Summary . .21 Appendix A. Letter from the Associate Administrator . .23 2006 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Model Instructions . .24 COMSTAC Launch Demand Model Report Feedback Form . .25 Appendix B. Historical Launches . .26 2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits . .31 Executive Summary . .31 Introduction . .32 NGSO Satellite Systems . .33 International Science and Other Payloads . .33 Digital Audio Radio Services . .35 Military . .35 Market Demand Scenarios . .35 Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites . .36 DigitalGlobe . .36 GeoEye . .38 ImageSat International . .39 InfoTerra GmbH . .39 Federal Aviation Administration and the iii Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) MDA Geospatial Services . .39 Northrop Grumman . .40 RapidEye AG . .40 TransOrbital . .40 Market Demand Scenarios . .41 NGSO Telecommunications Systems . .41 Globalstar . .41 Iridium . .42 ORBCOMM . .43 Other Systems . .44 Market Demand Scenarios . .45 Future Markets . .45 Risk Factors That Affect Satellite and Launch Demand . .46 Methodology . .48 Vehicle Sizes and Orbits . .49 Satellite and Launch Forecast . .50 Historical NGSO Market Assessments . .52 iv Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts List of Figures Figure 1. GSO Satellite and Launch Demand . .5 Figure 2. NGSO Satellite and Launch Demand . .5 Figure 3. Combined GSO and NGSO Launch Forecasts . .6 Figure 4. Historical Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts . .6 Figure 5. COMSTAC Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast . ..