Ocean & Coastal Management 94 (2014) 66e73 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Ocean & Coastal Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ocecoaman Adaptation to sea level rise in spatial planning e Experiences from coastal towns in Norway Knut Bjørn Stokke* Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Department of Landscape Architecture and Spatial Planning, 1430 Aas, Akershus, Norway article info abstract Article history: Rising sea level has become a spatial planning challenge in Norway, as in many other coastal countries. Available online 18 December 2013 This article focuses on how some selected Norwegian coastal towns adapt to this challenge in their spatial planning, and identifies potential barriers and opportunities for adaptation. Hammerfest in northern Norway is of particular interest since it is one of the few municipalities in Norway that ad- dresses the future rise in sea level in its current municipal master plan. The main conclusion is that although sea level rise has scarcely been acknowledged as a challenge to spatial planning, there is increasing awareness and knowledge of the issues and impacts it presents. An important barrier to adaptation is the lack of authoritative signals from the national government. In Hammerfest there are enthusiasts in the municipal administration, and their ability to build networks with other relevant parties e including both the Planning Section in the municipality and other actors outside the munici- pality e which is a major reason for the consideration of sea level rise being integrated into the master plan. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction climate variability and climate change, and includes changes in actions, resources and technology (Brooks and Adger, 2005). Suc- Combined with more frequent spring tides and storm tides, cessful adaptation to climate change requires strategies and mea- rising sea level is one of the expected impacts of climate change in sures to be integrated into the ordinary planning decisions (Smit the future. Although Norway has a relatively rugged coastline, with and Wandel, 2005). Evidence shows that spatial planning plays hard rocks that are resistant to erosion and a relatively steep an important role when developing robust cities (Wilson, 2006). coastline that makes the country less vulnerable to marine flooding Moreover, it is important to have reliable knowledge when action compared to many other coastal nations (Aunan and Romstad, on adaptation is required. This is particularly a challenge regarding 2008), many of the Norwegian towns are located in close prox- sea level rise because of the lack of previous experience. imity to the open ocean and are thus vulnerable to a rising sea level. By downscaling results from global climate models, a report Furthermore, a massive development has occurred along the compiled in 2009 shows the expected relative sea level rise for all waterfront in several Norwegian towns (Klausen et al., 2012), the Norwegian coastal municipalities in 2050 and in 2 100 (Vasskog which further increases their vulnerability. This article focuses on et al., 2009), as is shown in the figures for some towns in Table 1. how some selected Norwegian coastal towns adapt to this chal- These estimates also include expected storm tide at the same time. lenge and on highlighting barriers and opportunities when at- The report was prepared by the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Change tempts are made to integrate sea level rise into spatial plans. The at the University in Bergen, and is published by the Norwegian town of Hammerfest in northern Norway will be particularly in Directorate for Civil Protection. The relative sea level rise is esti- focus since it is one of the few municipalities in Norway that ad- mated, and takes into account the ongoing post-glacial rebound. It dresses the future rise in sea level in its current municipal master emphasises that the figures are estimates only and hence should plan. function as a guide for planning. However, the report presents the The capacity to adapt to climate change can be defined as the best available evidence of this phenomenon at the present time. ability or the potential of a system to respond successfully to In Norway, the municipalities are the primary planning au- thority and they adopt binding spatial plans according to the Planning and Building Act (PBA) from 2008. However, the plans * Tel.: þ47 64 96 62 68. must be in accordance with national and regional policies, and a E-mail address: [email protected]. variety of national and regional actors have the right and obligation 0964-5691/$ e see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.11.010 K.B. Stokke / Ocean & Coastal Management 94 (2014) 66e73 67 Table 1 Estimated figures for sea level rise in some of the largest towns along the Norwegian coast in 2050 and in 2100, including the case towns in this study (in bold) (Source: Vasskog et al., 2009). Norwegian cities Year 2050 Year 2100 Rebound (cm) Sea level rise (cm)a Storm tide (cm)a Rebound (cm) Sea level tide (cm)a Storm tide (cm)a Hammerfest 13 19 (11e33) 236 (228e250) 25 65 (45e100) 287 (267e322) Tromsø 13 18 (10e32) 237 (229e251) 27 63 (43e98) 287 (267e327) Bodø 18 13 (5e27) 257 (249e271) 36 54 (34e89) 303 (283e338) Trondheim 24 7 (À1e21) 254 (243e265) 48 42 (22e77) 294 (274e329) Ålesund 9 22 (14e36) 220 (212e234) 19 71 (51e106) 274 (254e305) Bergen 8 23 (15e37) 186 (178e200) 17 73 (53e108) 241 (221e276) Oslo 25 7 (À2e21) 197 (189e211) 49 41 (21e76) 236 (216e271) Fredrikstad 19 12 (4e26) 172 (164e186) 38 52 (32e87) 217 (197e252) a Uncertainty intervals in ( ). to participate in municipal planning processes to ensure that these All four stages of the learning process in Fig. 1, which make the requirements are met. In addition, detailed planning of urban areas adaptation space, are profoundly affected by the governance mode is conducted in close cooperation with private developers, where that characterises the organisation and its environment. However, private actors and their consultants currently account for much of these four phases will rarely occur in a tidy, linear sequence as the planning process and thus set many of the premises for the final listed in this model. A guiding assumption of the empirical research decision (Falleth et al., 2010). The PBA also requires broad partici- has been that hierarchies, markets and networks provide quite pation from the local communities in the planning processes. Thus, different preconditions for learning and adaptation. many different actors e often with diverse and conflicting interests In a hierarchical governance mode, learning and adaptation take e are involved in the planning process, resulting in major coordi- place in the form of command and control from above. The key nation challenges. Hence, how this is handled is of crucial impor- prerequisite for achieving adaptation is the existence of centrist tance for how municipalities are able to adapt to climate change, authority with legitimate power of decision making and means to such as increased sea level. ensure compliance, including control over funding and means of Rising sea level is a new challenge in municipal planning in coercion. Based upon this understanding of hierarchies, signals and Norway, and there is no formal approach regarding how to deal knowledge about climate change impacts must be received and with such long-term scenarios that are associated with such a de- interpreted by the top level of the system. This is because the top gree of uncertainty. At the same time, urban development planning level is in charge of decision making e in other words the “artic- also has a long-term horizon (Dessay et al., 2007), and handling ulation” of actual adaptation measures. In line with the hierarchical different types of uncertainty is therefore embedded in the nature model, these decisions would need to be made in the form of of planning. Adapting to rising sea level within an existing urban binding directives to the appropriate subordinate levels. This could, structure can be difficult since neighbouring buildings and piers for instance, be a decision made by a municipal council on the may be at levels that are at the risk of flooding, and the incorpo- minimal height above sea level of new buildings, which would have ration of new buildings can be demanding. The fact that the issue of a binding influence on the town’s planning department. climate change adaptation in urban development is a relatively The market is a governance mode devoid of the centrist au- new topic does not make the situation easier. To date the focus has thority found in hierarchies. Adaptation has to be achieved through been more on how to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emis- the autonomous self-adjustment of numerous operationally inde- sions (Owens, 1986; Næss, 2006). pendent actors. The sole means of communication between the actors is the price mechanism. In perfect markets no single actor is 2. Adaptation, organisational learning and governance able to affect prices. Instead, a product price will emerge that bal- modes ances supply and demand, and the actors have to adjust their behaviour accordingly. For instance, if homebuyers became aware In this article we draw upon theories of organisational learning of the risks associated with future sea level rise, there would be an and governance modes to understand adaptation and adaptation increasing demand for buildings far away from the waterfront. capacity. A starting point was the work of Berkhaut et al. (2004), Growing demand would increase the price of such houses, and this and the model was first presented in Winsvold et al. (2009). signal would be interpreted by private developers. The search for Adaptation to climate change requires organisational learning, measures would most likely result in the “articulation” of the which means that learning is involved in the organisational rou- decreasing supply of waterfront houses.