GURRGURR POLITICSPOLITICS TED ROBERT GURR WHY MEN REBEL Fortieth Anniversary Edition TED ROBERT GURR WITH A NEW INTRODUCTION BY THE AUTHOR AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE 2011 MIDDLE EAST UPRISINGS WHYWHY Praise for the New Edition ““Why Men Rebel providesprovides notnot onlyonly anan importantimportant theorytheory ofof protestprotest andand rebellion,rebellion, butbut remainsremains todaytoday aa modelmodel forfor developingdeveloping aa rigorousrigorous theorytheory thatthat engagesengages thethe complexitycomplexity andand nuance that this topic surely requires.”” —Will H. Moore, FloridaFlorida StateState UniversityUniversity MENMEN Praise for the Original Edition ““The most important book that has been published on social violence in a good number of WHY years….years…. AA superbsuperb piecepiece ofof work.work.”” —New York Times Book Review ““Likely to last a long time.”” —Orbis REBELREBEL ““A rare, perhaps unique example of systematic empirical theory in political science…. The book stands as an important contribution to social science theory in general and to the theory of violence in particular, as well as the single most complete and comprehensive statement on the topic in the literature.”” —American Political Science Review MEN Why Men Rebel waswas firstfirst publishedpublished inin 19701970 onon thethe heelsheels ofof aa decadedecade ofof politicalpolitical violenceviolence Fortieth Fortieth and protest not only in remote corners of Africa and Southeast Asia, but also at home in thethe UnitedUnited States.States. FortyForty yearsyears later,later, thethe worldworld isis rivetedriveted onon uprisingsuprisings inin thethe MiddleMiddle East,East, and the United States has been overtaken by a focus on international terrorism and a fascinationfascination withwith citizencitizen movementsmovements atat homehome andand abroad.abroad. DoDo thethe argumentsarguments ofof 19701970 applyapply Anniversary Edition Anniversary Edition today?today? Why Men Rebel lendslends newnew insightinsight intointo contemporarycontemporary challengeschallenges ofof transnationaltransnational recruitmentrecruitment andand organization,organization, multimediamultimedia mobilization,mobilization, andand terrorism.terrorism. TED ROBERT GURR isis DistinguishedDistinguished UniversityUniversity Professor,Professor, Emeritus,Emeritus, REBEL and Founding Director of the Minorities at Risk Project in the Center for InternationalInternational DevelopmentDevelopment andand ConflictConflict ManagementManagement atat thethe UniversityUniversity ofof Maryland. Fortieth Anniversary Edition PARADIGM PUBLISHERS PARADIGM 2845 Wilderness Place Boulder, CO 80301 www.paradigmpublishers.com www.routledge.com why men rebel Page Intentionally Left Blank Why Men Rebel Ted Robert Gurr Fortieth Anniversary Paperback Edition First published 2011 by Paradigm Publishers Published 2016 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Copyright © 2011, Taylor & Francis. The original hardcover edition of Why Men Rebel was published by Princeton University Press © 1970. The original paperback edition was published by Princeton University Press © 1971. The Fortieth Anniversary hardcover edition was published by Taylor & Francis © 2010. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data for this book is available from the Library of Congress ISBN 13: 978-1-59451-913-0 (hbk) ISBN 13: 978-1-59451-914-7 (pbk) Designed and Typeset in New Caledonia by Straight Creek Bookmakers. To my daughters Lisa Anne and Andrea Mariel and the next generation Jonathan and Natalia Gurr-Lavan and Alysa Anne Gribben Page Intentionally Left Blank Contents INTRODUCTION TO NEW PAPERBACK EDITION ix INTRODUCTION xx 1. EXPLANATIONS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE 3 What Is to Be Explained? 7 Toward an Integrated Theory of Political Violence 12 The Nature of Social Theory 16 2. RELATIVE DEPRIVATION AND THE IMPETUS TO VIOLENCE 22 Relative Deprivation Defined 24 The Sources of Aggression 30 Relative Deprivation and Analogous Causes of Political Violence 37 Patterns of Relative Deprivation 46 The RD Models: Some Qualifications and Uses 56 3. THE INTENSITY AND SCOPE OF RELATIVE DEPRIVATION 59 Determinants of Intensity: The Degree of Relative Deprivation 60 Determinants of Intensity: Value Salience 66 Determinants of Intensity: Number of Opportunities 73 Some Effects of Anticipation and Persistence of RD 79 Determinants of the Scope of Relative Deprivation 83 4. SOCIAL ORIGINS OF DEPRIVATION: SOURCES OF RISING EXPECTATIONS 92 Demonstration Effects: Exposure to New Modes of Life 93 Demonstration Effects: New Ideologies 103 Demonstration Effects: Value Gains of Reference Groups 105 Demonstration Effects: Value Disequilibria 109 Some Effects of Value Mobility 113 5. SOCIAL ORIGINS OF DEPRIVATION: DETERMINANTS OF VALUE CAPABILITIES 123 General Determinants of Value Capabilities 123 Welfare Value Capabilities and Political Violence 129 Interpersonal Value Capabilities and Political Violence 134 Power Values and Political Violence 143 6. PERSPECTIVES ON VIOLENCE AND POLITICS: SOCIALIZATION, TRADITION, AND LEGITIMACY 155 Two Basic Hypotheses 155 Psychocultural Justifications for Violence 160 The Politicization of Discontent 177 The Legitimacy of Political Systems 183 vii viii ✻ Contents 7. PERSPECTIVES ON VIOLENCE AND POLITICS: IDEOLOGIES, UTILITIES, AND COMMUNICATION 193 Doctrinal Justifications for Political Violence 193 The Utility of Violence 210 The Communication of Aggressive Symbols 223 Summary 229 8. THE COERCIVE BALANCE 232 The Balance of Regime and Dissident Coercion 233 Regime Coercion 237 A Note on Rational Conflict Models and Negative Sanctions 259 Dissident Coercion 260 9. THE BALANCE OF INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT 274 The Balance of Regime and Dissident Institutional Support 274 Some Structural Determinants of Institutional Support 282 Some Functional Determinants of Institutional Support 296 Instrumental vs. Expressive Functions of Associational Groups 310 10. CAUSES AND PROCESSES OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE: A CONCLUSION 317 Determinants of the Magnitude of Political Violence: A Summary 319 Determinants of the General Forms of Political Violence 334 Processes of Political Violence 347 Conclusion 357 APPENDIX: SUMMARY LIST OF HYPOTHESES AND COROLLARIES 360 BIBLIOGRAPHY 369 I. Behavioral and Attitudinal Studies 369 II. Studies of Group Conflict and Political Violence 379 INDEX 409 About the Author 423 Introduction to the Fortieth Anniversary Paperback Edition of Why Men Rebel Why Men Rebel was written in the late 1960s when observers in the Western world were deeply concerned about political violence in postcolonial states, especially in Africa and Southeast Asia, and mass protest movements, especially against racial discrimination in the United States and military intervention in Vietnam. Looking backward, the question is how well its arguments help us understand later waves of violent conflict within societies. This introduction reviews and updates some of Why Men Rebel’s arguments and, in a concluding section, applies it to the wave of pro-democracy protests that swept through the Middle East from 2009 in Iran to 2011 in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and beyond.1 Why Men Rebel was first published in 1970 by Princeton University Press and was awarded the American Political Science Association’s Woodrow Wilson Award as the best book of 1970 in political science and international relations. In the next few years it was translated into German, Spanish, and Thai. In the first decade of the twenty-first century it attracted a new flurry of intellectual interest that led to the appearance of editions in Arabic and Russian.2 In my late twenties, when the Why Men Rebel arguments were first for- mulated in a New York University dissertation, I thought it was possible to provide a general explanation for political protest and rebellion that could help readers understand not only the violent conflicts of the 1960s but a great many others as well.3 I was convinced then, and am convinced now, that to build a more peaceful and secure world, we need to begin by analyzing the minds of men—and women—who oppose bad governments and unpopular policies. But equally we need to know about the societies in which they live, their beliefs and cultural traditions, and the governments they oppose.4 The essential argument of the Why Men Rebel model is that to understand protest and rebellion in general, and in specific instances, we should analyze three general factors. First is popular discontent (relative deprivation), along with an analysis of its sources. Second are people’s justifications or beliefs about the justifiability and utility of political action. Third is the balance between discontented people’s capacity to act—that is, the ways in which they are or- ganized—and the government’s capacity to repress or channel their anger. In the present era, people almost everywhere worry about international terrorism, instability in Africa and the Islamic