Fylde Coast Strategic Housing Market Assessment Blackpool Council, Fylde Council and Wyre Council December 2013 Final Version Issued February 2014 Contents Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction 1 2 Placing the SHMA Research in Context 10 3 A Review of the Housing Market Area Geography 15 4 The Housing Stock 31 5 Demographic and Economic Drivers of the Market 51 6 The Active Market 87 7 Fylde Coast Population and Household Projections 99 8 Alternative Projection Scenarios 129 9 Affordable Housing Need 135 10 The Housing Requirements of Specific Groups 164 11 An Objective Assessment of Need 173 12 Drawing the Evidence Together 188 Appendices Appendix 1 - Stakeholder Workshop Appendix 2 - Spatial Definition of Sub-Areas Appendix 3 - Population and Household Projections TA reference: BLAM2004 LPA reference: Date of issue: 27 February 2014 1 New York Street Manchester M1 4HD T: 0161 233 7676 Executive Summary 1. This report represents a new Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for the Fylde Coast authorities. The research has been undertaken by Turley Associates in partnership with specialist demographic consultancy Edge Analytics. Purpose of the SHMA 2. The purpose of this document is to develop a new National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) compliant SHMA to update the evidence base of housing needs and demand across the Fylde Coast. 3. This assessment will provide evidence for the Councils as to how many dwellings of different tenures may be needed over the next fifteen years and beyond. This will inform the respective Local Plans of Blackpool, Fylde and Wyre, and allow the development of complementary housing strategies. 4. This report will also enable a greater understanding of the dynamics and drivers of the sub-regional housing market, and will allow the identification of actions that will help to deliver better housing and socio-economic outcomes for those living in Blackpool, Fylde and Wyre. Overview of SHMA Findings 5. The SHMA has identified a need for new housing across the Fylde Coast, reflecting demographic pressures and the realisation of overall growth in employment. Importantly, the analysis confirms that a proportion of households will require affordable housing, reflecting the income profile and variations in house price across the Fylde Coast geography. 6. The research reinforces the existence of a housing market area geography across the Fylde Coast, while also recognising the important linkages with surrounding authorities and the larger economic centres, including Preston, Lancaster and Manchester. The analysis has also illustrated the important spatial variations at a sub-authority level. 7. The baseline analysis of the stock profile of the area highlights notable spatial distinctions which relate to the evolution of areas over time, as well as more recent development. 8. Consideration has been given to the specific needs of different groups within the housing market, with the SHMA identifying that the needs of elderly households inparticular will represent an important challenge over the next 15-20 years. 9. With regards to each of the component authorities in the Fylde Coast, the following key messages emerge from the SHMA analysis: Blackpool – with high concentrations of terraced and flatted properties, there is a notable imbalance of housing stock in Blackpool. Furthermore, the population is characterised by a younger demographic, although there is an overall trend of population decline. The private rented sector is particularly dominant in Blackpool, due to relatively low rental values, and demand is driven inparticular by a high proportion of Housing Benefit claimants. Overall, there is an estimated need for 264 affordable homes per year in Blackpool, with modelling of a range of scenarios suggesting that there is an objectively assessed need for between 250 and 400 dwellings per annum; 1 Fylde – there are a significant number of detached properties in Fylde, particularly in the rural areas, while there has been substantial delivery of flats in Lytham & St Annes such that almost 90% of the borough’s flatted stock is located within this area. Overall, with regards to tenure, owner occupation levels are high, while in the context of national levels the proportion of social rented stock is low. Whilst the proportion of private rented stock is lower than in Blackpool, there are higher concentrations in the urban areas. The housing stock is typically relatively large in Fylde, with larger dwellings historically delivered in the rural areas inparticular, and coupled with an older population, there is a relatively high level of under-occupation. House prices are high in Fylde, relative to the rest of the Fylde Coast, with properties on average invoking a premium of at least £40,000 over comparable properties elsewhere, and areas of the borough remain among the least affordable in the Fylde Coast. Overall, there is an estimated need for 207 affordable homes per year in Fylde, with an objectively assessed need for between 300 and 420 dwellings per annum; Wyre – 70% of the housing stock in Wyre is detached or semi-detached, reflecting a low number of flats in most sub-areas. Over three quarters of households are owner occupied, with fewer instances of private and social renting, although there is a high concentration of the latter in Fleetwood. The population of Wyre grew marginally between 2001 and 2011, although population growth was strongest through the first half of the decade. The economy in Wyre is relatively strong, compared to elsewhere in the Fylde Coast, with strong job creation between 2001 and 2011 and a positive picture of growth forecast in the latest economic forecasts and the Council’s evidence base. House prices in Wyre are typically lower than Fylde but higher than Blackpool, with properties on average at least £20,000 more expensive than a comparable property in Blackpool. Overall, there is an estimated need for 300 affordable homes per year in Wyre, and modelling of scenarios indicates that there is an objectively assessed need for between 340 and 485 dwellings per annum. 10. The SHMA considers the underlying evidence behind these conclusions based on the structure set in the existing guidance. These points are considered in turn below. Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition and tenure 11. There are a total of 156,851 household spaces in the Fylde Coast, with Blackpool, Fylde and Wyre containing 44%, 24% and 32% of spaces respectively. As expected, the majority of household spaces are located within urban areas, with fewer dwellings in the rural parts of the study area. 12. The average property in Blackpool has fewer rooms than the comparable property in Fylde and Wyre, with an average property size that is lower than the national profile. Properties in all authorities have generally grown in size between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses, reflecting national trends, although this trend has been least pronounced in Blackpool, where there remains a high proportion of 1 bedroom properties, particularly in the inner area. 13. Blackpool has a substantially lower proportion of detached stock than the Fylde Coast and England averages, and a subsequently higher level of semi-detached, flatted and particularly terraced properties. This is driven by the high concentration of flats and 2 terraces in the Inner Blackpool area, and a high frequency of semi-detached properties elsewhere in the borough. 14. The current stock profile in Fylde and Wyre is relatively similar, with higher levels of detached stock, fewer terraced properties and more caravans. There are two notable differences, however – Fylde has a significantly higher proportion of flats when compared to Wyre, and Wyre has a higher level of semi-detached stock. 15. Collectively, local authority surveys have identified just over 50,000 dwellings that can be classified as non-decent. The survey identified that the housing stock in Blackpool is typically older than that found in England as a whole, with double the national average of dwellings built between 1919 and 1944 and subsequently fewer modern dwellings. In contrast, the housing stock in Fylde is more modern, with the greatest proportion built since 1965. This pattern is replicated, albeit to a lesser degree, in Wyre. 16. On average, outright ownership of properties is more common in the Fylde Coast than nationally, with a slightly higher level of private renting and substantially fewer instances of social renting. Blackpool closely follows national housing tenure trends, with the main exception being that there is a lower proportion of social rented property and a greater concentration of private renting from a landlord or agent. The latter is particularly prevalent in the Inner Blackpool area, where half of all properties are classified as privately rented and the levels of ownership are lower than any other sub-area. Wyre and Fylde have much higher levels of outright ownership, with both the social and private rental market lower than the Fylde Coast average. It should also be recognised that Blackpool inparticular contains a large number of shared households, accounting for around 70% of all shared households in the Fylde Coast. 17. In October 2013, there were 2,718 long-term empty properties in the Fylde Coast, of which over half were located in Blackpool. This generates long-term vacancy rates of 2.1%, 1.6% and 1.1% for Blackpool, Fylde and Wyre respectively, with the majority located within urban areas. Analysis of past and current housing market trends, including balance between supply and demand in different housing sectors and price / affordability 18. The housing market in the Fylde Coast has closely followed the national trend, with substantial growth in the early 2000s – most significantly in Fylde – that reinforced the spatial variability in house prices. Since 2008, house prices have fallen slightly, but there has been a sharp decline in the number of residential transactions between 2007 and 2008 that has preceded a relatively low level of activity since.