Report on the maturity, reliability, efficiency and stability of the supply chain Deliverable No. D5.4.2 Workpackage No. WP54 Workpackage Title Integrating EV with ICT, transfer & grids Authors Yannis Damousis (ICCS), Juan de Blas, Lukas Reinhardt (QiE), Andrew Winder (ERT), Hans Bludszuweit (CIRCE) Status Final Dissemination level Public Project start date and duration 01 January 2014, 48 Months Revision date 01 November 2017 Submission date 01 November 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 605405 Copyright FABRIC D5.4.2 Public Contract N. 605405 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 12 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 15 2. Modelling of the supply chain .......................................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Wireless dynamic charging system decomposition .................................................................................... 20 2.1.1 Electric Vehicle (EV) component analysis ....................................................................................... 20 2.1.2 Road side infrastructure component analysis .................................................................................. 26 2.2 Conductive dynamic charging system decomposition ................................................................................ 31 2.2.1 Electric Vehicle (EV) component analysis ....................................................................................... 31 2.2.2 Road-side infrastructure component analysis.................................................................................. 34 3 Demand forecast ............................................................................................................................................... 40 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 40 3.2 E-Corridors demand calculation ................................................................................................................. 43 3.2.1 Analysis of historic EV sales & stock data in Europe and rest of the world ..................................... 43 3.2.2 Benchmark external roadmaps for EVs (BEV + PHEV) penetration till 2050 .................................. 47 3.2.3 Identification of key factors affecting the EV sales .......................................................................... 50 3.2.4 Identification of new key factors unknown in previous reports ......................................................... 54 3.2.5 FABRIC Forecast EV stocks (EV + PHEV) till 2050 (Global and Europe, deregistration after 10 years) 56 3.2.6 Definition of business models; Light EV in trips among cities and HV in short distance trips .......... 61 3.2.7 Location of widest and most congested motorways between cities at distance 400-600 km........... 66 3.2.8 Other entry points for the e-corridors ............................................................................................... 68 3.2.9 Revision of TEN-T plans to enlarge some congested motorways adding a green corridor ............. 68 3.2.10 Preliminary identified Roadmaps for the initial penetration of dynamic charging. ............................ 73 3.2.11 The effects of the e-corridors in the Evs market .............................................................................. 79 3.2.12 Estimation of total number of EV-DWPT charging in Europe .......................................................... 80 Page 2 Copyright FABRIC D5.4.2 Public Contract N. 605405 4 Scarcity of resources and possible manufacturing delays ........................................................................... 84 4.1 Wireless dynamic charging systems ........................................................................................................... 84 4.1.1 Copper demand and scarcity ........................................................................................................... 84 4.1.2 Other materials and issues coming from suppliers (Questionnaire feedback) ................................. 89 4.1.3 Delays due to long construction time for power transformers needed for the MV/LV substations ... 91 4.1.4 Power transformer (PT) production capacity ................................................................................... 92 4.2 Conductive dynamic charging systems....................................................................................................... 95 4.2.1 Volvo-Alstom APS system ............................................................................................................... 95 4.2.2 Conductive charging with overhead line – Siemens ........................................................................ 96 5 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................................... 99 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................................... 106 ANNEX I – Survey Questionnaire ........................................................................................................................... 107 ANNEX II – European country incentives for EV adoption .................................................................................. 113 ANNEX III – identification of busiest motorways in EU countries ....................................................................... 119 Page 3 Copyright FABRIC D5.4.2 Public Contract N. 605405 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: D5.4.2 connection to other FABRIC deliverables ......................................................................................... 17 Figure 2: Abstraction of the main components comprising a dynamic wireless charging system. ............................... 20 Figure 3: IVECO van used for the Italian tests and its 3D model that was used for charging pad design and mounting simulations................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 4: System layout of IVECO electric Daily, as a basis for secondary device installation. ................................... 22 Figure 5: Mechanical structure for hosting and mounting the secondary coil on the IVECO electric vehicle. .............. 22 Figure 6: Vehicle mounting of secondary coil structure. .............................................................................................. 23 Figure 7: New elements added on the existing electric vehicle and installation side view. .......................................... 24 Figure 8: IVECO EV E/E architecture. ......................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 9: POLITO wireless charging road-side module. .............................................................................................. 27 Figure 10: Depiction of a charging lane using the POLITO (or SAET) wireless charging modules, which are embedded in the road pavement (depth = ~5cm). ....................................................................................................... 28 Figure 11: POLITO system test site layout. ................................................................................................................. 28 Figure 12: POLITO/SAET systems’ connection to the grid architecture ...................................................................... 29 Figure 13: POLITO road side architecture (from level “7” of Figure 12 to the edge implementation of the coils) ........ 29 Figure 14: Volvo conductive ERS “Slide-in”. ................................................................................................................ 31 Figure 15: Volvo conductive charging test vehicle (system overview) ......................................................................... 32 Figure 16: Conductive project pickup prototypes ......................................................................................................... 33 Figure 17: Truck with pick-up and road with two parallel rails ..................................................................................... 33 Figure 18: Road-side set up ........................................................................................................................................ 34 Figure 19: Full deployment layout for ERS system. ..................................................................................................... 35 Figure 20: Alstom ERS power grid design from 130 kV down to the distribution (road) substations ........................... 36 Figure 21: Alstom ERS power grid design from the 30 kV distribution substations down to the road integrated 750 VDC distribution system. ............................................................................................................................................. 37 Figure 22: Estimation of vehicle speed. ......................................................................................................................