Title A geographical study of farmers' adaptations to climate change in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan Author(s) ULLAH, WAHID Citation 北海道大学. 博士(文学) 甲第13418号 Issue Date 2019-03-25 DOI 10.14943/doctoral.k13418 Doc URL http://hdl.handle.net/2115/77053 Type theses (doctoral) File Information Wahid_Ullah.pdf Instructions for use Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers : HUSCAP A geographical study of farmers’ adaptations to climate change in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan パキスタン、カイバル・パクトゥンクワにおける農民の気候変動への適応 に関する地理学的研究 Wahid Ullah “A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE DOCTORAL PROGRAM IN REGIONAL SCIENCES, GRADUATE SCHOOL OF LETTERS, HOKKAIDO UNIVERSITY IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY” Sapporo, Japan March, 2019 DECLARATION The work presented in this dissertation is solely written and entirely conducted by the author. Material from all previously published work of others, which is referred to in this thesis, is credited to the author and cited accordingly in the text. No part of this work has been submitted for any other degree in this or any other university. The main body of the text (including references and appendices) is approximately 77,713 words in length. (Wahid Ullah) ii Copyright © 2018 Copyright of this thesis is owned by the Author. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without any prior permission, and/or written consent of the author. iii ABSTRACT Climate Change is probably one of the most threatening issues of the current century to all nations across the world. This is because of its severe negative impacts observed world-wide especially in the developing world. Pakistan is not an exception to this and in-fact is ranked among the top ten nations hard-hit by the vagaries of climate change and has experienced these effects dramatically over recent years through devastating floods, severe droughts, and catastrophic heat waves. This situation is exacerbated by internal security issues in the country, population bulge, growing energy gap, issues with education and healthcare systems, and increasing unemployment. Therefore, for Pakistan to address these challenges, a comprehensive approach is needed to better respond to it. Moreover, climate change has already enormously affected many sectors of life including agriculture in Pakistan. Hence, it is the need of time to explore the challenges and opportunities to farmers (who in most cases are among the poorest of the poor) to adapt to climatic changes. In this perspective, this study is focused on socio-economic aspects of the farm households’ and tried to integrate the science of climate change and seeks impact response model which has been rarely discussed in Pakistan. More specifically, the study explores rural farmers’ understanding and perception of risks, vulnerabilities associated with climate change as well as the coping and adaptation strategies they are adopting to minimize impacts of climate change in rural Pakistan at the agricultural farms. Information was collected utilizing structured and semi-structured questionnaires designed for household surveys, key informant interviews a group discussion in the Charsadda district located in the low lands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa iv province of Pakistan. Among others, primary information gathered included; demographic information, assets for livelihood, indigenous farming techniques, agricultural production, agricultural seasonal calendar, damages caused by climate- induced disasters, perceptions about risks associated with climate change, vulnerability towards climate change and responsive measures taken to minimize impacts of climate change. In addition, both primary and secondary data were gathered from national and provincial level intuitions like Center for Disaster Preparedness and Management (CDPM), University of Peshawar, Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD), National and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (NDMA, PDMA). Key informant interviews were arranged with officials of the above-mentioned organizations to better understand how climate change is dealt with at government level, it’s financing mechanism, disaster risk reduction facilities, and its disbursing methods, collaborations among institutions at all governance levels i.e. national to local level. Moreover, how early warning systems have been set up to promote security at the village level especially of those involved in farming. Other related information needed for this study were downloaded from google scholar using keywords, agriculture, climate change, adaptation, vulnerability, risk perceptions, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan etc. Results revealed that farming is a male dominant activity in the study area and almost all households primarily depend on farming both for subsistence and income generation. Additional responses included having other sources of income generation such as trading, transportation businesses, and crafts. Local farmers perceive that today’s weather and climate is different than in the past. Most of the farmers in the study area acknowledged climate change as increased temperature, devastating floods, unexpected or more precisely delayed onset of rains or change in the rainfall cycle and v pattern, frequent drought, increased pest and diseases incidents, increase in summer while shortening of the winter season and severe storms. The effects of climate change include longer periods of heat stress on crops, longer droughts, reduced crop yield, increased crop disease, and reduced soil fertility. Local farmers also feel that their production of wheat and sugarcane have also reduced due to the above causes of climate change. Efforts made to adjust farming to the changing climatic conditions depended on how a certain individual is resourceful, willing and more importantly is informed about such techniques that can reduce threats from climate change and enhance their resilience. Respondents made several efforts to adapt to climate change of which the most commonly and frequently measures taken for adjusting farming to climate change includes mixed cropping, crop rotation, use of fertilizers, pesticides, changing seed qualities, planting more trees around their farming lands to reduce soil erosion and protect their houses in the floods which occur almost every year in the monsoon rainfall season starting from July to September. However, more advanced adaptation techniques such using improved crop varieties that can resist heat, utilizing advance farming technologies, livelihood diversification or migration are rarely applied. Efforts made by government institutions, Non-Governmental Organizations, social, informal, and private institutions related to agriculture to help farmers in adjusting their farming to the vagaries and changes in climate were absent in the study area. However, the previous government did work on the excavation of canal passing through Shabara. Hence, it is strongly suggested that more deep insight and awareness programs should be carried out to educate farmers regarding the effects of climate change, and help farmers understand how environmentally suitable adaptation measures can improve agricultural yield and in result how it can improve their livelihoods. Moreover, vi enhancing adaptive capacity and productivity at the farm level can also improve the lives and livelihoods of poor rural farmers. Desired results from such efforts cannot be achieved without the greater help from other related stakeholders such as climate change and agriculture policymakers, researchers to identify best adaptation options and increase awareness among farmers, agriculture extension workers to help farmers in accessing good agricultural inputs, provide information on when and how to adjust to climate change. Finally, there is a dire need for the formal farmers’ unions which in most cases are the first to go place at the village level to share knowledge and experiences with each other. vii Rural farmers and Climate vulnerability No adaptation agriculture and risks Internal factors: • Poor in general • Increased Adaptation decision • Resources • Only males are temperature • Depend on what • Finances involved in farming • Less and resources are • Information • Able to utilize small unexpected rainfalls available (natural, • Poverty parcel of lands • Floods human, physical, External factors: • Depend primarily on • Droughts social and • Information farming • Crop diseases financial • Cooperation among farmers • Relatively larger • Water scarcity for • No access to extension family size irrigation services and credit • Severe storms • Awareness (recent technologies, training etc.) Adaptation • Conflicts (land and water) Net effect of yield • Taking different measures against observed • Due to lack of awareness on what risks such as apply different fertilizers, measure is environmentally feasible, pesticides, plant shaded trees, change seed no significant increase is seen in quality overall agricultural yield. • Farmer’s choice of adaptation method is based on their economic status (capability of adaptation) i.e. cheapest available agricultural inputs are replaced with the one used in the previous year Graphical abstract of the dissertation viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr. Takaaki Nihei for his guidance during coursework and research study. His guidance helped me at every step of research and