Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg Claus Neukirch Moldovan Headaches The Republic of Moldova 120 days after the 2001 Parliamentary Elections Working Paper 3 Moldovan Headaches The Republic of Moldova 120 days after the 2001 Parliamentary Elections 1. Introduction The 2001 Parliamentary Elections in the Republic of Moldova were conducted in an atmos- phere of extreme social and economic hardship. The average monthly salary in the former Soviet Republic, sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, is around 30 US-Dollar today and the real GDP of the country has fallen to 30 percent of the pre-independence level1. Moldova, which has no natural resources and whose economy is dominated by the agricul- tural sector, has now replaced Albania as the poorest country in Europe. When Moldovans were asked in a recent opinion poll what they fear most, 39 percent of the respondents an- swered ‘poverty’. In the same poll 87 percent stated that their income is hardly enough to cover their minimum expenses and 52 percent said that they would leave Moldova for good or at least for a certain period of time2. Already today over 700,000 Moldovan citizens are said to be abroad. Ten years after independence, Moldova has become a country without much hope, battered not only by economic decline, corruption3 and debt4 but also by an identity crises. The discussions of the early nineties, on whether Moldova is a nation in its own right or simply an offshoot of Romania, have quieted down, but not disappeared altogether. The conflicts between pro-Romanian unionists and Moldovanists have made it also more difficult to create a civic identity, which would include the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Gagauz, the Bulgarians, the Jews and other non-Moldovans which account for nearly 35 percent of the Republic’s population. The growing pro-Romanian nationalism in the early nineties was also partly responsible for the outbreak of the separatist conflicts in the southern Gagauz and the eastern Transdniestrian region5. The conflict between the central government and the Gagauz did not escalate to large-scale violence and an autonomy solution was found in 19946. The conflict between Chisinau and the separatists in the Transdniestrian region, however, escalated during the spring of 1992 into a full-scale civil war which left over 1,000 people dead. Transdniestria, 1 Leonid Cernei, Republik Moldova: Die Wahlen sind vorbei, aber Wahlen gibt es immer wieder, in: Rissener Rundbrief 4-5/2001, pp.35-40, p. 37. 2 CSOP – Centrul pentru Studierea Opiniei si Pieþei, Barometrul de opinie publicã, Republica Moldova. ianuarie 2001. 3 According to Transparency International, the Republic of Moldova is amongst the 25 most corrupt countries of the world, see Transparency International Annual Report 2000. 4 By 1999 the external debt of Moldova had risen to 116% of the GDP, see UNDP, National Human Develop- ment Report Republic of Moldova 2000, p. 73. 5 See Jeff Chinn / Steve Ropers, Ethnic Mobilization and Reactive Nationalism: The Case of Moldova, in: Nationalities Papers, 23 (1995), 2, pp. 291-325; William Crowther, Ethnic Politics and the Post-Communist Transition in Moldova, in: Nationalities Papers, 26 (1998), 1, pp. 147-64. 6 For the Gagauz conflict in Moldova see, inter alia, Jeff Chinn / Steve Ropers, Territorial Autonomy in Gagauzia, in: Nationalities Papers, 26 (1998), 1, pp. 87-10; Charles King, Gagauz-Yeri and the Dilemmas of Self-Determination, in: Transitions 1 (1995), 19, pp. 21-25; Rudolf Mark, Das Gesetz über die besondere Rechtsstellung von Gagausien (Gagauz-Yeri), in: WGO-Monatshefte für Osteuropäisches Recht, 37 (1995), 5, pp. 291-297. Randolf Oberschmidt, Neue Satzung für Gagausien (Gagauz-Yeri) in der Republik Moldau, in: WGO-Monatshefte für Osteuropäisches Recht 41 (1999), 1, pp. 13-21; Vladimir Socor, Gagauz Auton- omy in Moldova: A Precedent for Eastern Europe?, in: RFE/RL Research Report 3 (1994), 33, pp. 20-28; Vladimir Socor, Gagauz in Moldavia Demand Seperate Republic, in: Report on the USSR 2 (1990), 36, pp. 8-13; Paula Thompson, The Gagauz in Moldova and Their Road to Autonomy, in: Magda Opalski [ed.], Managing Diversity in Plural Societies - Minorities, Migration and Nation-Building in Post-Communist Europe, Ontario 1998, pp. 128-147. 1 which represents the most industrialised part of the former Moldovan Socialist Soviet Repub- lic, consolidated its de-facto independence in the years thereafter7. The resulting political and economic division of the country has aggravated Moldova's complicated situation even more. It was against this backdrop that the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM)8 won the Moldovan parliamentary elections on 25 February 2001 by a large margin. Ten Years after the breakdown of the Soviet Empire a largely unreformed Communist Party has come to power in one of the former Soviet Republics. With slightly over 50 percent of the popular vote, the PCRM received 71 out of the 101 mandates in the Moldovan parliament. Thus, the Moldovan Communists have gained control of parliament, have been able to change the Constitution, have formed a government and elected their First Secretary as Head of State. An examination of the implications of this development will be the main task of this paper. Are democracy and market reforms now in danger? Will Moldova go East? Will the Transdniestrian conflict be resolved in the near future and what will happen to the Russian troops still stationed in this eastern Moldovan region? These are just some of the burning questions which have been raised since 25 February. Four months after the elections there may already be tentative answers to some. Before they can be tackled, however, it will be necessary to scrutinise the developments preceding the 2001 parliamentary elections, to briefly analyse the election campaign and the election itself and to look closely at the political decisions taken after 25 February. 7 For more background information on the Transdniestrian conflict and the mediation efforts of the OSCE see, inter alia, Klemens Büscher, Möglichkeiten und Grenzen des OSZE-Konfliktmanagements in Moldova, in: Ethnos-Nation vol. 3 (1995), no. 2, pp. 71-85; Klemens Büscher, Separatismus in Transnistrien, in: Osteu- ropa 46 (1996), pp. 860-75; Klemens Büscher, The Missions to the Republic of Moldova and the Ukraine: A Double-Entry Balance Sheet, in: Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Ham- burg/IFSH (ed.), OSCE Ye arbook 1999, Baden-Baden, pp. 195-210; Gottfried Hanne, Der Transnistrien- Konflikt: Ursachen, Entwicklungsbedingungen und Perspektiven einer Regulierung. Berichte des BIOST 42- 1998. Stuart J Kaufman, Spiraling to Ethnic war. Elites, Masses and Moscow in Moldova’s Civil War, in: International Security 21 (1996), 2, 108-38; Terrence P. Hopmann, The OSCE Role in Moldova and Ukraine, in: Studien und Berichte zur Sicherheitspolitik, 2000, no. 1, pp. 25-61; Stuart J Kaufman / Stephen R Bowers, Transnational Dimensions of the Transnistrian Conflict, in: Nationlites Papers vol. 26 (1998), no. 1, pp.129-146; Pål Kolstø / Andrei Malgin, The Transnistrian Republic: A Case of Politicized Regionalism, in: Nationalities Papers, 26 (1998), pp. 103-127; Pål Kolstø, The Dniestr Conflict: Between Irredentism and Separtism, in: Europe-Asia-Studies 45 (1993), 6, pp. 973-1000; Claus Neukirch, Der Status Transnistriens aus politischer und völkerrechtlicher Sicht, Aktuelle Studien Nr. 3, Dezember 1998, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Büro Kiew; Stefan Troebst, Internationale Vermittlungsbemühungen zwischen Moldova und der selbster- nannten „Transnistrischen Moldavischen Republik“. Als KSZE-Diplomat beiderseits des Dnjestr, in: Ber- liner Osteuropa Info no. 5/95, pp. 18-22; Stefan Troebst, Kein spektakulärer Erfolg, aber Spannungen re- duziert. Die OSZE in der Republik Moldova. Wissenschaft und Frieden vol. 15 (1996), no. 1, pp. 23-27; Stefan Troebst, Die OSZE in der Republik Moldova 1992-1996, in: Der Donauraum vol. 36 (1996), no. 3-4, pp. 53-62; Stefan Troebst, Der Transnistrienkonflikt und seine Bearbeitung durch die OSZE, in: Österreichisches Studienzentrum für Frieden und Konfliktlösung/ÖSFK et al. (eds.): Afrikanische Perspek- tiven: Theorie und Praxis ziviler Konfliktbearbeitung in Osteuropa, Ergebnisse der Internationalen State-of- Peace-Konferenz 1997/bearb. von Catherine Schiemann Rittri, Chur/Zürich 1998, pp. 347-379; Rolf Wel- berts, Der Einsatz der OSZE in der Republik Moldau, in: Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicher- heitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg / IFSH (ed.), OSZE-Jahrbuch 1995, Baden-Baden, pp. 193-210. Consult also http://www.osce.org/moldova/background_information. 8 Partidul Comunistilor din Republica Moldova – PCRM. 2 2. The 2001 Parliamentary Elections This is the third time elections of this kind have taken place in Moldova since the country declared independence on 27 August 1991. Like those in February 1994, these elections were early elections, leaving the parliamentary elections in March 1998 as the only ones that were regularly scheduled. In every parliament elected since 1990, parliamentary majorities have soon become minorities due to splits and re-shuffles, leading to frequent impasses and gov- ernment crises. The Tarlev government elected on 19 April 2001 is the eighth government since Moldova declared independence and the fourth since 1998. The political instability re- flected by these events was also responsible for the dissolution of the last Moldovan parlia- ment in early 2001. Already