Space Assurance or Space Dominance? THE CASE AGAINST WEAPONIZING SPACE Michael Krepon with Christopher Clary Copyright © 2003 The Henry L. Stimson Center All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior permission in writing from the Henry L. Stimson Center. Cover design by Design Army. ISNB 0-9747255-2-8 The Henry L. Stimson Center 11 Dupont Circle, NW Ninth Floor Washington, DC 20036 phone 202.223.5956 fax 202.238.9604 www.stimson.org û ë Table of Contents Foreword ........................................................................................................................... v Abbreviations................................................................................................................. vii Introduction........................................................................................................................1 Chapter One From Cold War to Asymmetric Warfare ......................................................................5 Space and War-fighting .........................................................................................10 The Role of Space Arms Control.........................................................................26 Chapter Two Is the Weaponization of Space Inevitable? ................................................................28 What Constitutes Weaponization? ......................................................................29 Cold War Caution in Space...................................................................................36 Then vs. Now...........................................................................................................39 Satellite Warfare and Escalation Control............................................................54 Prospects for Restraint ...........................................................................................56 Chapter Three Hedging Against Weaponization .................................................................................58 Reducing Satellite Vulnerability ..........................................................................63 Downside Risks of Weaponization......................................................................75 Elements of a Hedging Strategy...........................................................................80 Chapter Four Assurance Through Cooperative Measures................................................................87 Building Blocks for Space Assurance.................................................................91 Cooperative Threat Reduction Initiatives ........................................................ 101 Treaties .................................................................................................................. 104 Rules of the Road for Space Assurance........................................................... 114 Summing Up ......................................................................................................... 124 Selected Bibliography................................................................................................. 129 About the Authors........................................................................................................133 ù é û ë ù é û ë Foreword am pleased to present the latest publication of the Henry L. Stimson Center, I Space Assurance or Space Dominance? The Case Against Weaponizing Space. This study examines the outer frontiers of national security policy, where technology and grand strategy meet. As the study explains, space is yet another arena where the United States is the preeminent international player, and that status gives the United States unique opportunities and unique responsibilities. The study focuses primarily on weighing the costs and benefits of weaponizing space, and examines models and concepts from historic arms control that may be useful in managing this challenge. The report proposes useful steps that the United States and the international community can take to avoid the weaponization of space while continuing to utilize space for some military purposes, such as support for deployed troops. This path also facilitates the commercial and economic uses of space. The Stimson Center's project was careful to consult with a diverse range of experts whose interests were not limited to military issues, since the policy process has to address the competing demands and the multiple constituencies for further development of space. This study should be seen in the larger context of the enduring commitment of the Stimson Center to examine national and international security issues and to search for achievable policies that reduce the threats from weapons of mass destruction. It complements other works by Michael Krepon, leader of this project and founding president of the Stimson Center, on arms control and cooperative threat reduction. I want to express my gratitude to the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation for supporting this important project. I will welcome hearing from you if you have any questions about this report or about the Stimson Center. Ellen Laipson President and CEO The Henry L. Stimson Center ù é û ë Abbreviations ABM antiballistic missile ASAT antisatellite BWC Biological Weapons Convention CD Conference on Disarmament CFE Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty CWC Chemical Weapons Convention DSP Defense Support Program EMP electro magnetic pulse GEO geosynchronous orbit GPS Global Positioning System HALEOS high altitude nuclear detonations against low earth orbit satellites HAND high altitude nuclear detonations IADC Interagency Space Debris Coordination Committee ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile IncSea incidents at sea INF intermediate-range nuclear forces ITU International Telecommunications Union KE-ASAT Kinetic Energy Antisatellite LEO low earth orbit LTBT Limited Test Ban Treaty MEO middle earth orbit MIRACL Mid-Infrared Advanced Chemical Laser NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NTM national technical means PDMA Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities Agreement PLNS pre- and post-launch notification system SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SAR synthetic aperture radar SLBM submarine-launched ballistic missile START Strategic Arms Reduction Talks TREE transient radiation effects on electronics WMD weapons of mass destruction ù é û ë Introduction he Henry L. Stimson Center convened a series of workshops from April T2002 to February 2003 to explore issues relating to the weaponization of space. We engaged individuals with diverse backgrounds who shared three essential traits: intellectual curiosity, a creative as well as conceptual approach toward problem-solving, and a keen interest in public policy issues relating to space. The following individuals participated in one or more of our workshop discussions: Victor Alessi, Bruce DeBlois, William Durch, Steven Fetter, Charles Ferguson, Peter Hays, Theresa Hitchens, Richard Kessler, Ellen Laipson, Michael Levi, Edward Levine, John Logsdon, Matthew McKinzie, David Mosher, Karl Mueller, Douglas Necessary, Janne Nolan, Michael O’Hanlon, Alan Shaw, Paul Stares, Sherri Stephan, and Peter Zimmerman. These experts participated in an individual capacity, not as representatives of their home institutions or work places. While this effort was underway, the Council on Foreign Relations convened the Study Group on Space Posture for the 21st Century. These deliberations were chaired by Daniel Goldin and guided by Richard Garwin and Bruce DeBlois . The author participated in these discussions and benefited greatly from them. This monograph draws heavily from and synthesizes working group discussions. Working group participants were not asked to endorse the analysis and conclusions of this monograph, which was written by Michael Krepon, with substantial research and drafting help from Christopher Clary. Significant inputs to this monograph were provided by Theresa Hitchens, Michael O’Hanlon, Alan Shaw, and Peter Zimmerman. Bruce DeBlois, Rebecca Johnson, Peter Hays, Michael Levi, Jeffrey Lewis, Janne Nolan, and Brad Roberts each reviewed parts of the manuscript and provided helpful comments. Dean Wilkening reviewed the entire manuscript. Because this monograph synthesizes working group deliberations, the views presented here should not be construed as reflecting those of every participant in every respect. Workshop participants might differ on matters of emphasis, and might hold contrary views on some specific points of analysis and recommendations. Any errors that remain in the text are the sole responsibility of the author. Our workshop deliberations began by comparing current and prospective issues relating to military space policy with the Cold War era. How have these issues changed with the demise of the Soviet Union? Are there still common elements of analysis? What did we mean by space “weaponization” back then, ù é û ë 2 ½ SPACE ASSURANCE OR SPACE DOMINANCE? and what do we mean by weaponization today? Is there less or more of a need to weaponize space in an era marked by concerns over asymmetric warfare and terrorism? We then asked whether the weaponization of space was inevitable and, if not, whether it was advisable. These discussions are reflected in Chapters 1 and 2. We then moved to a discussion of the military -related measures required to increase satellite survivability and to reduce U.S. vulnerabilities in space. There was widespread