GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM Lecture Series 2013 - 2014 www.globalstrategyforum.org Rt Hon Stephen O’Brien MP and Lord Lothian Robert Hayes and Lord Lothian HE Mr Ünal Çeviköz and Lord Lothian Leo Johnson and Lord Lothian Rt Hon Alistair Burt MP and Lord Lothian Sir Martin Davidson and Lord West www.globalstrategyforum.org GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM Lecture Series 2013 - 2014 3 www.globalstrategyforum.org 4 www.globalstrategyforum.org GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM President Johan Eliasch is the President of Global Strategy Forum. He is Chairman and CEO of HEAD (the global sporting goods group), Chairman of Aman Resorts, Equity Partners, London Films, Co-Chairman of Cool Earth, non-executive Chairman of Investcorp Europe, non-executive director of CV Starr Underwriting Agents. He is an advisory board member of Brasilinvest, Societe du Louvre, Capstar, the Centre for Social Justice, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Foundation for Renewable Energy and Environment and a member of the Mayor of London’s, Rome’s and Jerusalem’s International Business Advisory Councils. He is Patron of Stockholm University and a trustee of the Kew Foundation. He is the Chair of the Food, Energy and Water security program at RUSI. He is the Founder of the Rainforest Trust which is conserving 400,000 acres of rainforest in the Amazonas. He was part of the Conservative shadow foreign office team as special advisor on European affairs (1999-2003) and responsible for foreign relations (2003-2005). He was Conservative deputy party treasurer (2003- 2007). He is the former Special Representative of the Prime Minister of the UK for Deforestation and Clean Energy (2007-2010). Chairman Lord Lothian is the Chairman of Global Strategy Forum. Michael Lothian was first elected to Parliament as Michael Ancram in 1974. His political career included four years as the Political Minister in Northern Ireland responsible for the opening engagements with the IRA which eventually led to the Good Friday Agreement, Chairman of the Conservative Party for three years, and four years as Shadow Foreign Secretary and Deputy Leader of the Opposition. He continues to be involved in international conflict resolution. He co-founded Global Strategy Forum in 2006 and remains its Chairman. He was appointed to the House of Lords as a life peer in October 2010. He is a member of the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament. Director Jacqueline Jinks is the Director of Global Strategy Forum. She joined GSF as Research Director in June 2006 and became the Director in February 2008. From 1997-2005, she was Political Secretary and speechwriter to Lord Moynihan, a former Conservative Senior Spokesman on Foreign Affairs in the House of Lords. She was seconded to work for the Rt Hon Michael Howard QC MP and the Rt Hon Francis Maude MP, during their respective tenures as Shadow Foreign Secretary. Prior to that, she worked for the Democratic National Committee (1996-1997) and CMA Consultants (1994-1996). Treasurer Adrian de Ferranti was the founder of Ferranti, an early stage venture capital business. He was also a founder and/or Chairman of Tantus PLC, Cambridge Computer Graphics, Chelford PLC, and PTG. He had an early career at European Banking Company, Murray Johnstone, followed by Montgomery Securities. He is currently the Chairman, Director or investor in NEST, Same Wave, SMB, Ampair, Plasmanet, Updata, Ziani’s, Como Lario, Ferranti Farming, and Small Business Bureau. He was the Chairman and Trustee of the Royal Institution of Great Britain from 2007-2010. From 2007-13 he was Chairman of the Foundation at Heriot Watt University. He was also a Treasurer of the Conservative Party from 1991-2004. 5 www.globalstrategyforum.org 6 www.globalstrategyforum.org PRESIDENT’S FOREWORD It is no exaggeration to say that for all the twists and turns in British foreign policy since the foundation of Global Strategy Forum in 2006, the present time exhibits uniquely challenging characteristics. In 1991, President George H W Bush invoked the idea of a ‘New World Order’ to define the post-Cold War era. But today, there is increasing talk of a ‘New World Disorder’ and an ‘arc of instability’, as unrest and conflict take root from Ukraine to the Middle East and North Africa. Instead of being able, as many had hoped, to put Iraq and Afghanistan in the rear-view mirror, both are very much in front of us. The rise in the Middle East of ideologies even more extreme than al- Qaeda, the collapse of the positive expectations of the Arab Spring and the emerging radicalisation of Jihadist-inclined young people at home call into question many of the assumptions under which British foreign policy practitioners have been working. My concern, which I share with Michael Lothian, is that the debate in London still struggles to come up with fresh ideas in response to these unprecedented challenges. There is little doubt that the need for GSF as a neutral convenor of the best in innovative thinking has never been greater. This is the eighth annual collection of GSF lectures to which I have written the introduction. Taken together, it presents a comprehensive overview of the areas where the UK faces its most difficult choices. It is not surprising that essays about the Middle East and North Africa are disproportionately represented. Despite the expenditures of vast resources, the commitment of Britain’s top diplomatic and military minds and at the cost of many British lives, the problems seem hardly to have moved. And a new one has been added in the form of deepening concern that the extremists overseas exercise a dangerous attraction for disaffected British youth. Truly the problems are coming home. Over the year, GSF lectures and debates have examined the way in which the easy assumptions about the territorial integrity of European states have been rendered null and void by the Russian actions in Ukraine. As in past years, Afghanistan has continued to feature. With the looming withdrawal of foreign forces in an atmosphere of deepening political uncertainty in Kabul, this is a subject we will revisit in the coming year. On top of everything else, the UK faces its own constitutional problems both in terms of its own cohesion and with regard to its continuing membership of the EU, one of the bedrocks of British foreign policy since entry in 1972. Across the Atlantic, our US ally and partner is also facing a searching examination of its foreign policy posture. After years of relatively violent swings of the pendulum between external belligerence and war-weary detachment, the pendulum seems to be swinging back in the direction of engagement, less in terms of the erstwhile ‘shock and awe’ than in long-term consensus building. Where will this lead? Is the UK ready to adhere to another US-led coalition of the willing in the Middle East? What are the implications for the earlier US ‘rebalancing’ to the Asia-Pacific? These are some of the questions we will be addressing in our next series of lectures. None of these questions has an easy answer. This is precisely why we need a robust debate with multiple options on the table, not just those supported by conventional wisdom. This is where I see Global Strategy Forum’s essential contribution. Our aim is to act as a stress test to legacy opinions by providing a forum which actively encourages truly fresh ideas that can help forge a new consensus about how the UK engages with the world beyond our shores. As I wrote last year, this amounts to an ambitious agenda for GSF. It is also one that is realistic. GSF has an enviable track record. We have established ourselves as an active player in the international 7 www.globalstrategyforum.org relations community and as one of the key policy discussion groups in London, attracting both high-level speakers and attendees. We provide an open and independent forum where all those with an interest in foreign affairs can exchange views on the seminal questions facing our country, and where long-held attitudes and preconceptions can be challenged and overturned. Like its predecessors, this remarkable collection of lectures will further augment GSF’s well-established reputation for bold debate and innovative, policy-relevant thinking. As always, I wish to take this opportunity to convey my enormous gratitude to all our contributors. Without the readiness of our speakers to share their experience, their specialist knowledge and their insights, GSF simply could not exist in its current form. Our membership has increased dramatically over the past year, which I believe is a clear endorsement of GSF’s approach, and the unstinting support and commitment of our members remains indispensable. I would also like to thank our Advisory Board members, a list of whom can be found at the back of this publication, under whose wise oversight and broad leadership GSF continues to thrive and develop. I look forward to another busy and dynamic programme in 2014-2015, as we once again convene the diverse and influential network of policymakers, practitioners and international affairs experts who meet under our auspices and for which GSF is now well known. I hope to see many of our members, both old and new, at our events over the coming year. Johan Eliasch President, Global Strategy Forum October 2014 8 www.globalstrategyforum.org ABOUT GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM was founded by Lord Lothian (then the Rt Hon Michael Ancram MP) and Johan Eliasch in 2006 to generate open debate and discussion on key foreign affairs, defence and international security issues. As an independent, non-party political, non-ideological organisation, GSF provides a platform to explore some of the more challenging and contentious aspects of UK foreign policy and to stimulate imaginative ideas and innovative thinking in a rapidly changing global landscape.