BBCG Project Housing Impacts Study BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance October 2012 This Report has been prepared for: BHP Billiton Mitisubishi Alliance (BMA) This Report has been prepared by: C Change Sustainable Solutions ABN: 17 416 837 533 Mob: 0414 868 191 Web: www.cchange.net.au Email: [email protected] “Be the change you want to C in the world” October 2012 Cover Images Sourced from ULDA, realestate.com Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................... 1 1 Introduction ....................................................................... 7 1.1 The BBCG Project ........................................................................................................ 7 1.2 Purpose of the BBCG Housing Impacts Study and Plan ............................................................ 8 1.3 Data Sources .............................................................................................................. 9 1.4 Limitations ............................................................................................................... 10 1.5 Structure of the Report ................................................................................................. 11 2 Major Projects in Moranbah and their Likely Impacts on Population Growth.............................................................. 13 2.1 Major Projects in the Region, including BMA’s Activities ......................................................... 14 2.2 Moranbah’s Population Forecasts.................................................................................... 17 2.2.1 OESR’s Method to Prepare Forecasts ................................................................. 18 2.2.2 Expected Population in Moranbah to 2018 ............................................................ 19 2.2.3 BMA’s Impact on Moranbah’s Population Growth to 2018 ........................................... 21 2.3 Summary: Moranbah’s Drivers of Population Growth ............................................................ 23 3 Socio-Demographic and Socio-Economic Characteristics of Moranbah .......................................................................... 24 3.1 Socio-Demographic Information ...................................................................................... 24 3.1.1 Key Population Statistics ................................................................................. 24 3.1.2 Age-Sex Profiles ........................................................................................... 28 3.1.3 Household Structure ...................................................................................... 30 3.2 Socio-Economic Assessment ......................................................................................... 31 3.2.1 Income ...................................................................................................... 31 3.2.2 Occupation and Education ............................................................................... 33 3.2.3 Employment by Industry .................................................................................. 35 3.2.4 Labour force ................................................................................................ 36 3.2.5 Job Containment ........................................................................................... 36 3.3 Summary and Implications of Moranbah’s Profile ................................................................. 37 4 Moranbah’s Housing Market ................................................. 39 4.1 Dwelling Types & Tenure .............................................................................................. 39 4.2 Mortgage and Rental Payments ...................................................................................... 43 4.3 Sales Prices and Volumes ............................................................................................ 47 4.3.1 Estimated Non-Resource Households ‘at risk’ of Housing Stress ......................... 48 4.4 Summary and Implications of Moranbah’s Housing Market ...................................................... 53 5 BMA’s Workforce and Housing / Accommodation Arrangements in Moranbah ...................................................................... 55 5.1 BMA’s Approach to Housing their Workforce ....................................................................... 55 Table of Contents 5.2 BMA’s Employees and Contractors ............................................................................. 56 5.2.1 BMA’s Operations near Moranbah .................................................................. 56 5.3 BMA’s Workforce Housing ............................................................................................ 58 6 Housing Demand and Supply in Moranbah ............................. 62 6.1 Likely Housing Demand in Moranbah ............................................................................... 62 6.2 Current and Likely Future Housing and Accommodation Supply ................................................ 64 6.2.1 Current Permanent Housing ............................................................................. 64 6.2.2 Accommodation for Non-Residents Workers and Visitors ........................................... 65 6.3 Likely Additional Future Supply of Housing and Accommodation ............................................... 66 6.3.1 BMA ......................................................................................................... 67 6.3.2 ULDA ........................................................................................................ 67 6.3.3 Council Initiatives .......................................................................................... 69 6.3.4 Likely Future Accommodation for Non-Residents ..................................................... 70 6.4 Demand versus Supply ................................................................................................ 70 7 BMA’s Fair Contribution to Housing for Non-Resource Workers & Operational Workforce ........................................................ 72 7.1 Dwellings required for Non-Resource Workers due to BMA’s activities ........................................ 72 7.1.1 A Framework for Determining Required Contributions for Non-Resource Workers from Major Projects ..................................................................................................... 72 7.1.2 BMA’s Responsibilities given Framework .............................................................. 73 7.2 Operational Workforce ................................................................................................. 77 7.3 In Summary ............................................................................................................. 78 8 Options to Meet Housing Contributions for Non-Resource Low to Moderate Income Workers ................................................... 79 8.1 Supporting cost effective, not for profit delivery models .......................................................... 82 8.2 Project Funder to Encourage Innovation in Affordable Housing Initiatives ..................................... 83 8.3 Direct Rental Subsidies ................................................................................................ 84 8.4 In Summary ............................................................................................................. 85 9 Conclusions & Recommendations ......................................... 87 Appendix 1: Terms of Reference ................................................. 93 Appendix 2: Details of Major Projects Likely to Impact on Moranbah94 Starting Construction ............................................................................................... 94 Expansion / Extension Projects Underway ................................................................... 96 New Project Under Consideration / Feasibility .............................................................. 97 Appendix 3: Socio-Economic and Socio-Demographic Information and Other Key Information from Terms of Reference ............ 102 Table of Contents Appendix 4: Assumptions and Method used to determine Ratios for BMA’s required contribution to Non-Resource Low to Moderate Income Dwellings ............................................................. 105 Bibliography .......................................................................... 111 Disclaimer This report has been prepared on behalf of BMA. It was prepared by C Change ‐ Sustainable Solutions Pty Ltd. Any representation, statement, opinion or advice expressed or implied in this publication is made in good faith. C Change ‐ Sustainable Solutions Pty Ltd is not liable to any person or entity for any damage or loss that has or may occur in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to in the report. BBCG Housing Impacts Study Executive Summary In August 2010, the Coordinator‐General provided Key Findings conditional approval to the Caval Ridge Mine Project. The Caval Ridge Mine project forms part Information and analyses presented in the report of a larger body of development work being have shown that the growth being experiencing in developed by BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance Moranbah due to the extensive coal mining (BMA) called the Bowen Basin Coal Growth (BBCG) operations in the Bowen Basin is impacting on its Project.