Papers Tourism analysis and perspectives in Brazil Análise e perspectivas do turismo no Brasil Análisis y perspectivas del turismo en Brasil Wilson Abrahão Rabahy1 1 University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brasil. Keywords: Abstract Tourism economics; This paper provides a summary of tourism activity in Brazil, presenting and analyzing statis- Tourism in Brazil; tics from an economic perspective. To this end, data are collected from the main official Inbound tourism; sources available, as well as from tourism surveys conducted by the Institute of Economic Domestic tourism; Research Foundation (FIPE). The first section presents an analysis of the global tourism mar- Tourist demand; ket. Next, the paper discusses Brazil's inbound tourism, including the effects of income, Tourism balance of payments. prices, and exchange rate. Three analyzes of tourism in Brazil are highlighted: the importance of domestic tourism, the opportunities of inbound tourism, and the impacts of tourism on regional income distribution. Finally, the paper presents some recommendations for tourism in Brazil. Resumo Palavras-chave: Este texto traz uma síntese da atividade turística no Brasil, apresentando e analisando es- Economia do turismo; tatísticas sob a perspectiva econômica. Para tanto, são reunidos dados das principais fontes Turismo no Brasil; oficiais disponíveis, bem como informações sobre o turismo produzidas pela Fundação Ins- Turismo receptivo internacional; tituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (FIPE). Inicialmente são apresentadas análises sobre o mer- Turismo doméstico; cado mundial de turismo. Em seguida, é discutida a realidade do turismo internacional re- Demanda turística; ceptivo do Brasil, incluindo relações entre renda, preços, taxa de câmbio e turismo. Três Balança de pagamentos do turismo. análises sobre o turismo no Brasil são destacadas: a importância do turismo doméstico, as oportunidades existentes no turismo receptivo internacional e os impactos do turismo na distribuição regional de renda. Por fim, o texto apresenta algumas recomendações para o turismo no Brasil. Palavras clave: Resumen Economía del turismo; Este artículo resume la actividad turística en Brasil, presentando y analizando estadísticas Turismo en Brasil; desde una perspectiva económica. Con este fin, se recopilan datos de las principales fuen- Turismo receptivo internacional; tes oficiales disponibles, así como información sobre turismo producida por el Instituto Fun- Turismo interno; dação de Pesquisas Econômicas (FIPE). Inicialmente, se presentan análisis sobre el mer- Demanda turística; cado turístico mundial. A continuación, se discute la realidad del turismo internacional re- ceptivo de Brasil, incluidas las relaciones entre ingresos, precios, tipo de cambio y turismo. Balanza de pagos turísticos. Se destacan tres análisis sobre el turismo en Brasil: la importancia del turismo interno, las oportunidades existentes en el turismo receptivo internacional y los impactos del turismo en Written by guest author. la distribución regional del ingreso. Finalmente, el texto presenta algunas recomendaciones Not peer reviewed. para el turismo en Brasil. Received in: 10/07/2019. Accepted in: 27/07/2019. How to cite: Rabahy, W. A (2020). Análise e perspectivas do turismo no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Pesquisa em Turismo, São Paulo, 14 (1), jan./abr. http://dx.doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v14i1.1903 RBTUR, São Paulo, 14 (1), p. 1-13, jan./abr. 2020. 1 Rabahy, W.A. 1 OPENING REMARKS Tourism has become a major economic force, capable of generating income, employment, foreign exchange, and regional income distribution (Haddad, Porsee, & Rabahy, 2013). Tourism, as well as other activities in- volving private consumption activities, mostly occur in richer regions; however, in relative terms, the income generated by tourism can be more relevant in less developed regions and with more fragile productive sec- tors. Thus, the reduction of regional income inequalities is one of the major advantages of tourism. On the other hand, as it is predominantly a labor-intensive service sector, the employment-generating poten- tial of tourism is also very relevant. According to IBGE (2009), Brazilian traditional tourism activities account for about 6% of the total employment in the country, with the food sector accounting for more than 50%, which, as we known, also meets the consumption of non-tourist residents. A preliminary estimate of direct employment in tourism, made by the Economic Research Institute Foundation (FIPE) for the Brazilian Tourism Institute (Embratur) in 2002 and following the Tourism Satellite Account (CST) and the World Tourism Organ- ization (UNWTO) guidelines, points to 2.3% of the total occupations in the country, and when considering the indirect effects, it totals 3.3% of the working population (Kadota & Rabahy, 2003). Tourism is also considered an important source of foreign exchange, particularly for countries where interna- tional tourism is significant. This is not the case of Brazil, where domestic tourism revenue is about nine times higher than that of international tourism, and the country receives only 0.47% of the world's total international tourism and 0.35% of total spending (EMBRATUR, 2002; UNWTO, 2019; Ministério do Turismo, 2019; Banco Central do Brasil, 2019). This situation is due, on the one hand, to the strength of the Brazilian domestic market, and, on the other, to its location, relatively distant from the main world issuers, Europe, Asia, and North America, which account for more than 80% of world tourism and are more than 9 hours away from Brazil, even by air transport. Only a small number of tourists from these regions is bound for Brazil (Rabahy, 2003; UNWTO, 2018; UNWTO, 2019). On the other hand, Brazilian spending abroad is closely related to income and, particularly, to exchange rate fluctuations. The appreciated Brazilian currency promotes outbound tourism and negatively affects inbound tourism, particularly from countries located in border locations, which, like Brazilians, in addition to foreign exchange, are responsive to changes in income (Rabahy, Silva & Vassallo, 2007). O Brazil has unique conditions to sustain the growth of its tourism by strengthening the domestic market. Although not justified as a primary focus for the development of activity in the country, international tourism ends up benefiting from the structure developed and sustained by domestic tourism. Domestic and foreign markets are not mutually exclusive; on the contrary, they can complement each other improving tourism conditions in general. To this end, strategies should be established for each type of tourism (domestic and international) and destination in the country, where there are different types of attractions, capable of serving different market segments. The size of territory and the wealth of cultural and natural attractions make Brazil a country with an enormous potential to serve a larger portion of the world tourism market. 2 THE GLOBAL TOURISM MARKET The number of international trips made worldwide has grown considerably in recent years: annual growth rates of 4.01%, against 3.65% of world GDP in constant values from 2000 to 2017. However, over time, it fluctuates with the cycles of the world economy (Figure 1). Comparing the annual rates of global tourism arrivals and world GDP (Figure 1), we can observe a high correlation between the two variables, corroborating the hypothesis that tourism is considered an elastic activity in relation to income. RBTUR, São Paulo, 14 (1), p. 1-13, jan./abr. 2020. 2 Tourism analysis and perspectives in Brazil Figure 1 – Annual changes in world GDP growth and global tourism arrivals (2000-2017) Tourist arrivals x World GDP (growth rate) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -4% -6% World GDP (PPP) Tourist arrivals Source: World Economic Outlook Database (IMF) and UNWTO Highlights Technological developments, particularly relating to transport and communication; advances in the process of globalization; increase in real income; increased free time for leisure; and the consequent changes in the consumption behavior, provided greater opportunities for tourism, previously an activity that only high-income individuals could access. However, this significant growth in tourism, which has been taking place since the end of the last century, is not equal in all countries. In fact, analyzing the different continents, we observe a strong concentration of both inbound and outbound tourism in some regions. As can be seen in Figure 2, there is a significant concentration of arrivals in some of the most developed regions of the world. No less than 51% of the world total (2018) goes to Europe, adding Asia Pacific (+ 24%) and North America (+ 10%) to 85% of the world total. It should be noted, however, that over time, travel destinations have become more diversified (in 1990 Europe accounted for 60.2%; loss of almost 10 percent- age points). One of the reasons is the increase and better distribution of world income, along with the importance of the globalization process and the economic rise of new powers, the so-called emerging countries, specifically China. Asia Pacific increased from 55.9 million (12.9%) to 345.1 million tourists (24.6%), an increase of nearly 290 million tourists between 1990 and 2018 (+ 11.7 percentage points). It should be noted that, due to time and income restrictions, in addition to insecurity with the unknown, the most significant portions