Locating Earthquakes How can we quickly estimate earthquake location (2 ways)? What can complicate these estimates? How are such estimates made in the real world? Global Seismic Network • About 150 stations - mostly broadband and 3 components • Detects M4 and larger events worldwide • Partly funded to aid in nuclear test ban verification USA quakes this past week Canada quakes this past month from Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) (almost 100 broadband from Canada National Seismograph seismometers [backbone array] plus Network (CNSN) (100 seismographs of several locally run networks). various types, plus 60 accelerometers) http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/ http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/index-eng.php Maps/region/N_America.php Japan http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/ each dot is a en/Activities/image/earth- seismometer! fig02.png red dots: seismometers in boreholes, operated by JMA (“Hi-Net”) US Earthscope Project • reference network (permanent) • transportable array (marching across the lower 48, 2-year deployments) (*coming soon to Quebec!* If they have any sense itʼll go to Alaska via BC...) • flexible arrays (instruments for local, temporary seismic arrays) Locating earthquakes using seismometer networks Recall: Seismic wave speed depends on: ! 1) incompressibility (K) resistance to volume change ! 2) rigidity (") resistance to distortion or bending (=0 for fluids) ! 3) density (#) mass per cubic meter P Waves S Waves 4 µ K + 3 µ Vp = Vs = ! ρ ρ ! Locating Earthquakes (1): s-p lag time How far was the earthquake from my seismograph? ts = D /vs. tp = D /vp. focus distance D seismometer Subtract P-wave travel time (“tp”) from S-wave travel time (“ts”) to get S-P lag time (“ts - tp”). S S-P lag ttime s- t p = D {1/vs - 1/vp} P 10 s S-PS-P lag lag time time = 10 seconds How far away was the earthquake? S-P lag ttime s- t p = D {1/vs - 1/vp} rearrange: S-Pt lag s- t ptime D = {1/vs - 1/vp} Vp ~ 6.7km/s Vs ~ 3.8km/s ts - tp = 5 minutes = 300 sec ts tp D = 1 − 1 vs − vp 300 D = 1 1 3800 − 6700 What if the quake is nearby? D = 2634 km Then D is small - so ts-tp must also be small. Even simpler... S-P lag ttime s- t p = D {1/vs - 1/vp} Just read D off this graph. seconds slope of the purple line is: {1/vs-1/vp} S-P lag time S-P What did you need to know to find D? E. Hearn D This graph assumes that Vp = 5800 m/s and Vs = 3300 m/s (in the crust). Where was the earthquake? •! calculate distance “D” to quake at 3 seismographs (D1, D2, and D3) •! draw a circle of radius D around each seismograph 2 D1 location (e.g., D1 D3 D2 1 for station 1) 3 •! epicenter is where the three circles intersect Possible problem: seismographs are in a line Japanʼs earthquake early warning system The alarm goes out when P-waves are detected by seismometers near the epicenter. S and surface waves are slower but cause more damage. Warning time = difference between P and S wave arrival times (seconds to minutes). Figure: Japan Meteorological Agency. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_8ZkBXVvMw S-P lag time If a hypocenter is 100 km away, how much warning time can there be after the P wave is detected? Japan’s earthquake early warning system Do you think they use s-p lag time? Alternate approach (more commonly used): just use wave arrival times from many stations and solve for hypocenter location and time. This requires data from at least 4 seismometers. (in Japan, this is NOT a problem!) In reality: (1) seismic velocities vary (especially with depth) (2) location of earthquakes is automated and data from many seismometers are used, not just three )or four) 2006 Bomb Test in North Korea 2006/10/09 01:35:27.0 Bomb North Korea Bomb Test P Wave arrivals 01:36:20 MDJ - 330 km away, took 53 seconds 01:36:35 INCN - 440 km away, took 68 seconds Vp (less than) 6.2 to 7.7 km/s MAJO - 880 km away, took 113 seconds 01:37:20 The further away, the faster the average seismic wave velocity (within about 100° of the epicentre) This is due to increase in K and µ with depth: due to high pressure (affects K and µ more than ρ ) Waves that have traveled a long distance have spent more time deep in the Earth (where they travel faster). Gradual increase in wave velocity with depth causes continuous refraction, resulting in curved travel paths. Recall refraction from last week slow v faster v even faster v Velocity seismic raypath bends gradually increasing with depth Simplest assumption: imagine that the Earthʼs interior is uniform material (but compressed at depth) •! P wave, S wave, and surface waves would arrive at all stations •! we would compute their arrival times at different seismometers assuming a gradual increase in velocity due to pressure •! this would work perfectly we could make a plot of P, S, and surface wave arrival time with distance “ ∆ “ surface ∆ = 50° S time P Note that these lines are now curved. Why? ∆ But the Earth is layered. At layer interfaces (where there is a big contrast in P and S wave velocity), both refraction and reflection happen. P wave velocities drop suddenly at 2900 km depth, and S waves cannot pass through this layer (the liquid outer core) 6370 km = Earth’s radius What are the red contours? The black ones? Where on Earth (relative to the epicenter) can one use just the difference between the direct P and S wave arrival times to compute distance to the quake? Other possible problem: heterogeneous Earth materials In reality: (1) seismic velocities vary (especially with depth) (2) location of earthquakes is automated and data from many seismometers are used, not just three or four ANSS Triangulation: Usually what happens is that the circles donʼt meet exactly. quake is in here Site 2 somewhere x x Site 1 x Site 3 Add more stations and the error in location estimate can be reduced (find the epicentre that “best” matches ALL of the distance estimates) quake is in here somewhere How to minimize disagreement between station-epicenter distances, for all stations: trial and error? or: set up as an “inverse problem”: (1) guess the focus location (x,y,z) and origin time τ REPEAT steps 2 and 3 several times: (2) see how bad that guess is (compute “misfit” to seismometer-focus distances: summed squared residual) (3) refine your guess of quake (x,y,z,τ ) UNTIL your estimate is pretty good (misfit is small) “Alternate approach (more commonly used): just use wave arrival times from many stations and solve for hypocenter location and origin time. This requires data from at least 4 seismometers.” The basic data in earthquake location is Arrival Time, t The time of day that a wave from the earthquake arrives at a seismograph station The next several slides are from W. Menke: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/users/menke/ talks/ The distinction between Arrival Time: time of day something arrives And Travel Time: the length of time spent traveling Is very important in earthquake location! Arrival Time !Travel Time Q: a car arrived in town after traveling for an half an hour at sixty miles an hour. Where did it start? A. Thirty miles away Q: a car arrived in town at half past one, traveling at sixty miles an hour. Where and when did it start? A. Are you crazy? An earthquake location has 4 Parameters x, y (epicenter) z (depth) ! (origin time) Together, (x, y, z) are called the hypocenter. The fact that origin time is an unknown adds complexity to the earthquake location problem! Suppose you contour arrival time on surface of earth Earthquake’s (x,y) is center of bulls-eye but what about its depth? Since origin time unknown we have not marked it on Deep time axis Earthquake’s depth related to Shallow curvature of arrival time at origin Fundamental data: arrival time tpi of waves from earthquake p to station i Wave could be either P wave or S wave. Both are used. Fundamental Relationship Arrival Time = Origin Time + Travel Time tpi = !p + Tpi ray Traveltime Tpi along ray connecting earthquake p with station q can be calculated earthquake p using ray theory with origin time !p Basic Principle Best estimates of the hypocentral parameters and origin time are the ones that best predict the arrival times at all the stations. Usually, “best predicts” means minimizing the least-squares prediction error, E: observed predicted 2 Ep = "i [ tpi – tpi ] predicted predicted predicted where tpi = !p + Tpi predicted and where Tpi depends on (xp, yp, zp) The mathematical problem is to find the hypocentral parameters, predicted predicted xp =(xp, yp, zp) and origin time, predicted !p that give the best fit (which is to say, minimize the error) But the problem is that the traveltime varies in a complicated, non-linear way with the hypocentral predicted parameters, xp The usual solution is to use an iterative method: Step 1: Guess a set of hypocentral parameters, h=(xp, yp, zp, !p) = (xp, , !p) and use it to predict the traveltime Step 2: Determine how much the arrival time would change if the guess were changed by a small amount, #h = (#x, #!). Step 3: Use that information to attempt to find a slightly different h that reduces the error, E. Do steps 2 and 3 over and over again, hoping that eventually the error will become acceptably small.