The Dynamics of Public Opinion towards Aznar’s and Zapatero’s Foreign Policy: the European Constitution and the War of Iraq Maria Daniela Fortin Arias Master Thesis in Peace and Conflict Studies Department of Political Science UNIVERSITETET I OSLO Spring 2013 II The Dynamics of Public Opinion towards Aznar’s and Zapatero’s Foreign Policy: the European Constitution and the War of Iraq Maria Daniela Fortin Arias III © María Daniela Fortin Arias 2013 The Dynamics of Public Opinion towards Aznar’s and Zapatero’s Foreign Policy: the European Constitution and the War of Iraq. María Daniela Fortin Arias http://www.duo.uio.no/ Trykk: Reprosentralen, Universitetet i Oslo IV Abstract This thesis aims to shed light to what extent, Aznar’s and Zapatero’s foreign policy decisions: the rejection and approval of the European Constitution and the invasion and the removal of the troops from Iraq, were taken in light of the Spanish public opinion. The objective is to answer the following research question: how José Maria Aznar overcame domestic opposition to implement unpopular policies and how José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero managed to exploit supportive public opinion to implement his chosen foreign policy? Based on public opinion surveys, interviews and document data I conclude that Spanish policy making is a result of both bottom up processes wherein leaders are responsive to public opinion; and of bottom down process wherein leaders ignore public opinion; as well as a process in which leaders managed to manipulate the public opinion to ensure that policies that they supported were pursued. This relation between policy makers and public opinion is provided by both the type of the policy and the two-level game strategies. V Abbreviations BNG Bloque Nacionalista Galego (Galician Nationalist Bloc- Party) BRIE Survey from Real Instituto Elcano from Spain CC Coalición Canaria (Canarian Coalition-Party) CIS Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (Sociological Research Center) CiU Convergència i Unió Party (Convergence and Union from Catalonia) CHA Chunta Aragonesista (Aragonese Union) CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy ERC Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Republican Left of Catalonia) EA Eusko Alkartasuna Party (Basque Solidarity) EU European Union ETA Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (Basque Homeland and Freedom) ESDP European Security and Defence Policy ICV Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds (Initiative for Catalonia Greens - Party) IU Izquierda Unida (United Left –Party) NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization PA Partido Andalucista (Andalusian Party) VI PNV Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Basque Nationalist Party) PP Partido Popular (Popular Party) PSOE Partido Socialista Obrero de España (Socialist Party) UNSC/ SC United Nations Security Council U.S. United States of America VII Foreword I would like to thank, Arild Underdal, my supervisor at the University of Oslo for the support he gave me as well as his great talent and knowledge. A special gratitude to my parents, Elisa and Ivan, who believed in me and encouraged me to start and finish my thesis. Many thanks to my friends for their dedication and collaboration in the long days of writing, specially to Iñigo. María Daniela Fortin Arias, Oslo VIII Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 A general presentation ................................................................................................ 1 1.2 The research question and general objectives ............................................................ 1 1.3 The selection of the (two different) study cases ......................................................... 4 1.4 Specific objectives ...................................................................................................... 5 1.5 The research ............................................................................................................... 5 2 THEORY ............................................................................................................................ 6 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 Public Opinion and foreign policy ............................................................................. 7 2.3 A reconsideration of the incompatible hypothesis ..................................................... 9 2.4 The Two-level Game Theory ................................................................................... 13 2.5 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 16 3 METHOD ......................................................................................................................... 18 3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 18 3.2 Comparing case studies ............................................................................................ 18 3.3 Operationalization .................................................................................................... 21 3.3.1 General Objective ................................................................................................. 21 3.3.2 Measuring the independent variable .................................................................... 22 3.3.3 Measuring the dependent variable ........................................................................ 26 3.3.4 Specific objectives ................................................................................................ 30 3.4 Conclusion: measurement and source validity. ........................................................ 32 4 IRAQ INVASION ............................................................................................................ 34 4.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 34 4.2 Iraq Crisis and the Spanish contribution .................................................................. 34 4.3 Spanish Public Opinion on the Iraq War .................................................................. 37 4.4 Phase 1: Aznar “shooting ” in Iraq to become the “Great Spain” ............................ 48 4.5 Phase 2: Zapatero-“booting out” the war of Iraq and strengthening the European Union 51 4.6 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 53 5 THE EU CONSTITUTION ............................................................................................. 55 5.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 55 IX 5.2 The European Constitution ....................................................................................... 55 5.3 Spanish Public Opinion toward a European Constitution ........................................ 57 5.4 Aznar: blocking the Negotiations and bringing Nice back ...................................... 66 5.5 Zapatero: Preferring a European Constitution ......................................................... 70 5.6 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 73 6 FINDINGS ....................................................................................................................... 74 6.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 74 6.2 The Invasion of Iraq and the removal of the troops ................................................. 74 6.3 The European Constitution ....................................................................................... 78 6.4 José Maria Aznar ...................................................................................................... 83 6.5 Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero .................................................................................. 84 6.5.1 Comparison between Aznar and Zapatero ........................................................... 87 6.6 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 87 7 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................... 89 7.1 Leaders can use or ignore public opinion ................................................................. 89 7.2 Public opinion is responsive to elite manipulation ................................................... 90 7.3 The removal of the troops from Iraq is the exception .............................................. 91 7.4 Generally speaking, foreign policy is undemocratic ................................................ 92 7.5 In conclusion ............................................................................................................ 93 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................... 95 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................................ 106 X List of Figures Figure 3.1: Operationalization of the dependent and independent variables .......................... 21 Figure 3.2: Implications of playing the two-level game ........................................................