Bangladesh Power System Enhancement and Efficiency Improvement Project- Additional Financing (RRP BAN 49423-006) CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION Project Title: Bangladesh Power System Enhancement and Efficiency Improvement Project-Additional Financing Project Cost ($ million): $313.5 million ($200 million – sovereign loan, $113.5 million – counterpart financing) Location: Rural, Eight districts (Bagerhat, Jeshore, Jhenaidah, Khulna, Kushtia, Magura, Meherpur, and Satkhira) in Khulna Division, Western Bangladesh Sector: Energy / Electricity Transmission and Distribution Theme: Inclusive economic growth; Environmentally sustainable growth Brief Description: Installation of: (i) 33/11kV substations near demand center which will reduce transmission losses and improve reliability, and (ii) associated 33kv and 11kv below distribution lines Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE Project Financing Climate Finance Amount Adaptationa Mitigation Source ($ million) ($ million) ($ million) Asian Development Bank Ordinary capital resources (regular loan) 70.0 0.0 2.7b Ordinary capital resources (concessional loan) 130.0 0.0 5.1b Counterpart Funds Government of Bangladesh 113.5 0.0 4.5b Total 313.5 0.0 12.3 a Adaptation measures have already been included as standard design features of the distribution infrastructure, no additional costs are incurred. b Estimated mitigation cost allocated between the financing sources based on the proportions financed by each source from the overall project cost. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. III. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT A. Sensitivity of Project Component(s) to Climate or Weather Conditions and the Sea Level 1. Distribution lines. • When subjected to extreme weather events prevailing in the project area (Khulna division in western Bangladesh) such as cyclones, storm surges, floods/flash floods and soil erosion, damages to physical hardware or operational constraints can be expected. Distribution systems physically consist of various types of power lines that transfer energy, transformers, and protective devices required to maintain safety and reliability under hazardous conditions. The physical damage to distribution poles, conducteors and foundations will be high leading to reduction in the distribution capacity. Cyclones, storm surges and erosion make trees fall on lines, tilt the poles, and damage the conductors. There is a risk of overhead conductors sagging or swinging during extreme weather events such as heavy winds and storms, losing the ground clearances required to prevent flashovers. These damages will depend on the severity of the event. • During floods and storm surges, similar to during cyclones and storms, the distribution lines could be physically damaged by falling trees and tilting of poles and also result in losing the necessary ground clearances. These conditions could give rise to safety hazards, and interruption to power supply across the distribution network. 2 2. Substations. • Extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods and storm surges could cause severe physical damages to substation structures and the equipment causing interruptions to the power supply. • Floods can inundate indoor/outdoor substation equipment, erode the ground and short circuit the electrical equipment substations and lead to permanent damages and faults. • Floods and other extreme whether events can also disrupt operation and maintenance of the substations and even prevent access to them. B. Climate Risk Screening 1. Temperature rise. By the end of 21st century, the annual mean temperature (uncertainty range) over Bangladesh is projected to increase by 1.20C (0.7-2.1), 2.10C (1.5-3.3) and 4.30C (3.2-6.6) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.1 2. Projected changes in precipitation. The annual mean precipitation is also projected to increase over Bangladesh during the 21st century under all scenarios. By the end of the 21st century, the country’s averaged annual mean precipitation (uncertainty range) is projected to increase by 17.1% (2.2-49.1%) under the Shared Economic Pathway 5-8.5 scenario (Almazroui et al. (2020)). 3. Extreme weather conditions (cyclone, storm surge, flood, flash flood, erosion, sea-level rise). Cyclones, storm surges, floods, soil erosion, flash floods, droughts, earthquakes, increase in soil salinity, sea-level rise, and landslides are the natural hazards in the project area (Western Bangladesh, Khulna division). Risk level of natural hazards on proposed subprojects at eight districts in Khulna division. Cyclone Storm Flood Flash Erosion SLR EQ L S D Surge flood Bagerhat MR MR VLR VLR LR LR VLR VLR MR MR Jessore VHR MR LR VLR LR LR LR VLR VHR HR Jhenaidah MR VLR LR VLR LR VLR VLR VLR LR VLR Khulna LR LR LR VLR LR LR VLR VLR MR MR Kushtia HR VLR VHR VLR LR VLR LR VLR VLR VLR Magura MR VLR MR VLR LR VLR LR VLR LR VLR Meherpur MR VLR LR VLR LR VLR LR VLR VLR VLR Satkhira VHR MR LR VLR MR MR VLR VLR HR HR Natural hazards: D = droughts, EQ = earthquakes, L = landslides, S = salinity. Risk levels: VHR = very high risk, HR = high risk, MR = moderate risk, LR = low risk, VLR = very low risk. Note: Hazards such as increase in salinity, drought, and sea level rise would not have direct impact on infrastructure of the project although the risk level shows high in some districts. Landslide and earthquake are having very low impacts in all eight districts. Climate Risk Classification: High 1 Almazroui et al. (2020) Projections of precipitation and temperature over the South Asian countries in CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00157-7 ). 3 C. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment This assessment is based on climate risk studies done for Bangladesh in general and adaptation measures undertaken by similar projects in the energy sector, and identifies the specific measures required to adapt to the risks posed by climate impacts on the specific project areas. Key climate risks to the relevant project components. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Tool prepared for Bangladesh for screening Climate Change Risks of Development Project2 identifies the likelihood of ten natural hazards for each district. These are cyclone, drought, earthquake, erosion, flood, flashflood, salinity, sea-level rise, landslide, and storm surge. Distribution lines and substation infrastructure are sensitive to cyclones, storm surges, flood/flashflood, and erosion. The rating of each risk is assessed as below. Natural Hazard Climate Risk Natural Hazard Climate Risk Increase in cyclones/ storm Moderate to High Increase in drought Lowa surge Increase in flood/ flashflood Low to Moderate Increase in landslides Very Low intensity Increase in sea-level rise Low to Moderate Increase in earthquake Very Low Increase in erosion Low Increase in soil salinity Very Lowa a Increases in soil salinity and droughts have risk indices of Very High, High, Moderate, Low, and Very Low in some districts where the construction of distribution lines and substations are planned. However, soil salinity and periodic droughts will pose only a very low risk to the distribution and substation infrastructure. Adaptation options identified and prioritized for managing the risks. The following climate change adaptation options are already included in the design of the distribution infrastructure. Distribution lines. Structural design to include over-engineered pole foundations, stronger poles, use of heavy-duty conductor connections and fasteners to accommodate the possible increased frequency of cyclones, storm surges. • Strengthening of the distribution poles, pole foundations, conductors for extreme wind and storm surges • Use of tall distribution poles to ensure necessary ground clearances maintained during floods and storm surges • Regular clearance of vegetation to prevent trees falling on distribution lines during cyclones. Substations.Improved design standards for substation structures, mounting equipment and protective measures againstcyclones, storm surges, floods, and other extreme weather events. • Implement flood control (dams, dikes, polders, etc.) • Improve coastal defenses • Build in less exposed locations • Raise structure levels • Improve drainage systems • Implement more rigorous structural standards 2 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Tool for Screening Climate Change Risks of Development Projects in Bangladesh.TA-8572 (REG): Action on Climate Change in South Asia. 2018 (financed by the Asian Development Bank). 4 D. Climate Risk Screening Tool and/or Procedure Used The Climate Risk Assessment and Management Report (2017) has been prepared for the ongoing project - Bangladesh Power System Enhancement and Efficiency Improvement Project (RRP BAN 49423) and the rating of climate risk classification is ‘High’. This climate change assessment is prepared for the additional financing ($313.5 million) of the project to be implemented by BREB in eight districts in Khulna division, western Bangladesh. The risk screening and vulnerability assessment procedures were adapted from ADB. 2013. Guidelines for Climate Proofing Investment in the Energy Sector. Manila, CRVA Tool for Screening Climate Change Risks of Development Projects in Bangladesh, TA-8572 (REG) Action on Climate Change in South Asia (2018), and Climate Change Assessment on Dhaka and Western Zone Grid Expansion Project, PN 51137-003, 2019. IV. CLIMATE ADAPTATION