ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ Hopkins The Political Economy of اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻰ the New Egyptian Republic ﻟﻠﺠﻤﻬﻮرﻳﺔ اﳉﺪﻳﺪة ﻓﻰ ﻣﺼﺮ The Political Economy of the New Egyptian of the New Republic Economy The Political Edited by ﲢﺮﻳﺮ Nicholas S. Hopkins ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻻس ﻫﻮﺑﻜﻨﺰ Contributors اﳌﺸﺎرﻛﻮن Deena Abdelmonem Zeinab Abul-Magd زﻳﻨﺐ أﺑﻮ اﻟﺪ دﻳﻨﺎ ﻋﺒﺪ اﳌﻨﻌﻢ Yasmine Ahmed Sandrine Gamblin ﺳﺎﻧﺪرﻳﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﺒﻼن ﻳﺎﺳﻤﲔ أﺣﻤﺪ Ellis Goldberg Clement M. Henry ﻛﻠﻴﻤﻨﺖ ﻫﻨﺮى إﻟﻴﺲ ﺟﻮﻟﺪﺑﻴﺮج SOCIAL SCIENCE IN CAIRO PAPERS Dina Makram-Ebeid Hans Christian Korsholm Nielsen ﻫﺎﻧﺰ ﻛﺮﻳﺴﺘﻴﺎن ﻛﻮرﺷﻠﻢ ﻧﻴﻠﺴﻦ دﻳﻨﺎ ﻣﻜﺮم ﻋﺒﻴﺪ David Sims دﻳﭭﻴﺪ ﺳﻴﻤﺰ Volume ﻣﺠﻠﺪ 33 ٣٣ Number ﻋﺪد 4 ٤ ﻟﻘﺪ اﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻓﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ أﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﻞ ﻻ ﻏﻨﻰ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎرئ اﻟﻌﺎدى واﳌﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﻓﻰ ﺷﺌﻮن CAIRO PAPERS IN SOCIAL SCIENCE is a valuable resource for Middle East specialists اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ. وﺗﻌﺮض ﻫﺬه اﻟﻜﺘﻴﺒﺎت اﻟﺮﺑﻊ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺔ - اﻟﺘﻰ ﺗﺼﺪر ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎم ١٩٧٧ - ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺒﺤﻮث اﻟﺘﻰ ﻗﺎم ﺑﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺣﺜﻮن and non-specialists. Published quarterly since 1977, these monographs present the results of ﻣﺤﻠﻴﻮن وزاﺋﺮون ﻓﻰ ﻣﺠﺎﻻت ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ واﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ واﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ واﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ. ,current research on a wide range of social, economic, and political issues in the Middle East وﺗﺮﺣﺐ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﲢﺮﻳﺮ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﻻت اﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﻬﺬه اﻟﺎﻻت ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺮ ﻓﻰ ﻣﺪى ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ. وﻳﺮاﻋﻰ ان ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﺒﺤﺚ .and include historical perspectives ﻓﻰ ﺣﺪود ١٥٠ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺮك ﻣﺴﺎﻓﺘﲔ ﺑﲔ اﻟﺴﻄﻮر، وﺗﺴﻠﻢ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻧﺴﺨﺔ ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺔ وأﺧﺮى ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﻄﻮاﻧﺔ ﻛﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ (ﻣﺎﻛﻨﺘﻮش Submissions of studies relevant to these areas are invited. Manuscripts submitted should be أو ﻣﻴﻜﺮوﺳﻮﻓﺖ وورد). أﻣﺎ ﺑﺨﺼﻮص ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﳌﺮاﺟﻊ، ﻓﻴﺠﺐ ان ﺗﺘﻮاﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻰ ﻛﺘﺎب ”اﻻﺳﻠﻮب ﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ around 150 doublespaced typewritten pages in hard copy and on disk (Macintosh or Microsoft ﺷﻴﻜﺎﻏﻮ“ (The Chicago Manual of Style) ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻬﻮاﻣﺶ ﻓﻰ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ، أو اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻰ Word). References should conform to the format of The Chicago Manual of Style (footnotes at ”اﳉﻤﻌﻴﺔ اﻻﻧﺜﺮوﺑﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ اﻻﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ“ وﻓﻰ ﻫﺬه اﳊﺎل ﻳﺬﻛﺮ اﺳﻢ اﳌﺆﻟﻒ وﺗﺎرﻳﺦ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ ورﻗﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻗﻮﺳﲔ داﺧﻞ اﻟﻨﺺ. ,the bottom of the page) or of the American Anthropological Association (references with author وﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻗﺒﻮل ﻫﺬه اﻟﺒﺤﻮث أو رﻓﻀﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ رأى اﳊﻜﺎم وأﻋﻀﺎء ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﲢﺮﻳﺮ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة و ﻳﺒﻠﻎ اﳌﺆﻟﻒ ﺑﻘﺮار ﻫﻴﺌﺔ date and page parenthetically within the text). Manuscripts are refereed and subject to approval اﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﻓﻰ ﺧﻼل ﺛﻼﺛﺔ أﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ اﺳﺘﻼم اﻟﺒﺤﺚ. .by the Editorial Board. Notification is usually prompt, within three months of receipt وﺗﺮﺣﺐ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﺑﺘﻨﻮع اﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎت ووﺟﻬﺎت اﻟﻨﻈﺮ. وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ، ﻓﺈن اﻵراء اﳌﻌﺮوﺿﺔ ﻓﻰ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻻ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮورة Opinions expressed in CAIRO PAPERS do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial وﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ أو آراء ﻫﻴﺌﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ أو اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة. staff or of the American University in Cairo. The editors welcome diversity of subject matter and viewpoint. ﻫﻴﺌﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ EDITORIAL BOARD د. ﻣﻬﺎ ﻋﺒﺪ اﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ د. ﺟﻮﻳﻞ ﺑﻴﻨﲔ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻛﺎﻣﺒﺮﻳﺞ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺳﺘﺎﻧﻔﻮرد Maha Abdelrahman Joel Beinin د. أﻣﻴﻨﺔ اﻟﺒﻨﺪاري د. ﺷﺮﻳﻒ اﳌﻮﺳﻰ Cambridge University Stanford University ﺣﻀﺎرات ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ وإﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ – اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮم ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ - اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ د. ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻻس ﻫﻮﺑﻜﻨﺰ، رﺋﻴﺲ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ د. آن ﻟﻴﺶ Amina Elbendary Sharif Elmusa اﻧﺜﺮوﺑﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ - اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮم ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ - اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ Arabic & Islamic Civilizations, AUC Political Science, AUC د. ﺷﻮن ﻣﻜﻤﺎﻫﻮن د. ﻫﺪى رﺷﺎد Nicholas S. Hopkins, Chair Ann M. Lesch ﻋﻠﻮم ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ - اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ اﻟﺒﺤﻮث اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ Anthropology, AUC Political Science, AUC د. ﻣﻠﻚ رﺷﺪى د. رﱘ ﺳﻌﺪ اﺟﺘﻤﺎع - اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ اﻧﺜﺮوﺑﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ - اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ Sean McMahon Hoda Rashad د. ﺣﻨﺎن ﺳﺒﻊ د. ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺪ Political Science, AUC Social Research Center, AUC اﻧﺜﺮوﺑﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ - اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮم ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ - ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة Malak S. Rouchdy Reem Saad د. إﻳﺮل ﺳﻮﻟﻴﻔﺎن د. إﳝﺎن ﺣﻤﺪى Sociology, AUC ِAnthropology, AUC ﻋﻠﻮم ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ - اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ رﺋﻴﺴﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ Hanan Sabea Mostafa K. Al-Sayyid Anthropology, AUC Political Science, Cairo U. Earl L. Sullivan Iman A. Hamdy Political Science, AUC Editor For submissions and inquiries, please contact: ﺗﻘﺪﱘ اﻟﺒﺤﻮث واﺳﺘﻔﺴﺎرات اﻟﻨﺸﺮ: ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻓﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ Dr. Iman Hamdy اﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻻﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة Cairo Papers in Social Science ص. ب. ٧٤ The American University in Cairo P.O. Box 74 - اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة اﳉﺪﻳﺪة ١١٨٣٥ ﻣﺼﺮ New Cairo 11835, Egypt ﻫﺎﺗﻒ: ٢٦١٥١٥٨٦ Tel: +202.2615.1586 [email protected] [email protected] CAIRO PAPERS IN SOCIAL SCIENCE VOLUME 33 NUMBER 4 The Political Economy of the New Egyptian Republic Edited by Nicholas S. Hopkins Contributors Deena Abdelmonem Zeinab Abul-Magd Yasmine Ahmed Sandrine Gamblin Ellis Goldberg Clement M. Henry Dina Makram-Ebeid Hans Christian Korsholm Nielsen David Sims THE AMERICA N UNIVERSIT Y IN CAIRO PRESS CAIRO NEW YORK Cover photo: Nicholas S. Hopkins. Secret Keeper, Mahmoud Mukhtar Museum Copyright © 2015 by The American University in Cairo Press 113, Sharia Kasr el Aini, Cairo, Egypt 420 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10018 www.aucpress.com All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, me- chanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permis- sion of the copyright owner. eISBN 978 1 61797 648 3 Version 1 Contents Arabic Abstract v Chronology: Timeline until July 3, 2013 vii 1 Introduction: Te Political Economy of the New Egyptian Republic 1 Nicholas S. Hopkins 2 Te Egyptian Economy – A Dream Deferred? 19 Ellis Goldberg 3 Tumult, Trauma, and Resilience: Psychological Well-being of Cairenes One Year Following the January 25, 2011 Uprisings 38 Deena Abdelmonem et al. 4 Labor Struggles and the Quest for Permanent Employment in Revolutionary Egypt 65 Dina Makram-Ebeid 5 Islah, from Gift to Right 85 Yasmine Ahmed 6 Adapting to Change: Tribal Influence on the 2011–2012 Parliamentary Elections in Aswan Governorate 112 Hans Christian Korsholm Nielsen iii iv Contents 7 International Tourism in Post-revolution Egypt: Value Conflict and Economic Pragmatism 134 Sandrine Gamblin 8 Militarism, Neoliberalism, and Revolution in Egypt 153 Zeinab Abul-Magd 9 Affordable Housing Policies in Egypt after the 2011 Revolution: More of the Same? 174 David Sims 10 Islamic Finance in the New Egypt 194 Clement M. Henry About the Contributors 217 اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻟﻠﺠﻤﻬﻮرﻳﺔ اﳉﺪﻳﺪة ﻓﻰ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﺷﻬﺪت ﻓﺘﺮة ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺛﻮرة ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ٢٠١١ ﺗﻐﻴﺮات ﻋﺪﻳﺪة ﻓﻰ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ اﳌﺼﺮى واﻟﺘﻰ ﻟﻢ ﻳﺘﻢ دراﺳﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﻜﺎﻓﻰ. وﻓﻰ ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻟﺮﺻﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮات، ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻓﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﻘﺪ ﻧﺪوﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻓﻰ ٢٠١٣ ﻋﻦ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻟﻠﺠﻤﻬﻮرﻳﺔ اﳉﺪﻳﺪة ﻓﻰ ﻣﺼﺮ دﻋﺖ اﻟﻴﻪ أﻛﺎدﳝﻴﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﺷﺘﻤﻠﺖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺠﺎﻻت اﻷﻧﺜﺮوﺑﻮﻟﻮﭽﻳﺎ واﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺦ واﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ وﻋﻠﻢ اﻟﻨﻔﺲ واﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ اﻟﻌﻤﺮاﻧﻰ. وﻗﺪ ﻛﺸﻔﺖ اﻷوراق اﻟﺘﻰ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻧﺸﺮﻫﺎ ﻓﻰ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻌﺪد اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻰ ﺗﺒﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻘﻮى اﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﻌﻤﺎل واﻟﻔﻼﺣﲔ وﻣﻮﻇﻔﻰ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻫﺬه اﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ واﻟﺘﻰ ﺳﻮف ﻳﻜﻮن ﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻣﺼﺮ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ اﻟﻘﺎء اﻟﻀﻮء ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ اﻟﺘﻤﻊ واﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ واﻟﻔﻌﻞ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدى ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ أﺧﺮى. إﻟﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ اﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ، ﻳﺤﺘﻮى ﻫﺬا اﻟﻌﺪد ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺴﻌﺔ أوراق ﺗﻘﺪم ﺻﻮرة ﺑﺎﻧﻮراﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻓﻰ ﻣﺼﺮ اﳉﺪﻳﺪة، ﻳﺒﺪأﻫﺎ إﻟﻴﺲ ﺟﻮﻟﺪﺑﺮج ﺑﻨﻈﺮة ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﳌﺼﺮى وﺗﻄﻠﻌﺎت اﳌﺼﺮﻳﲔ ﻓﻰ ﻫﺬا اﻟﺎل ﺗﻠﻴﻪ دﻳﻨﺎ ﻋﺒﺪ اﳌﻨﻌﻢ وأﺧﺮﻳﻦ ﻋﻦ اﳊﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻨﻔﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺮﻳﲔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻋﺎم ﻣﻦ ﺛﻮرة ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ. ﺑﻌﺪ ذﻟﻚ، ﲢﺪﺛﻨﺎ دﻳﻨﺎ ﻣﻜﺮم ﻋﺒﻴﺪ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻨﻀﺎﻻت اﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ وﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ اﳊﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻘﻮد داﺋﻤﺔ، ﺛﻢ ﺗﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻳﺎﺳﻤﲔ أﺣﻤﺪ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﻳﺚ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻔﻼﺣﲔ وﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ اﺳﺘﺮﺟﺎع أراﺿﻰ اﻻﺻﻼح اﻟﺘﻰ أﺧﺬﺗﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ ﻹﻋﺎدﺗﻬﺎ ﳌﻼﻛﻬﺎ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﲔ. أﻣﺎ ﻫﺎﻧﺰ ﻧﻴﻠﺴﻦ ﻓﻴﻠﻘﻰ اﻟﻀﻮء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ اﻟﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻰ إﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﺑﺮﳌﺎن اﻟﺜﻮرة ﻓﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ أﺳﻮان. وﺗﺘﻨﺎول ﺳﺎﻧﺪرﻳﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﺒﻼن أزﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﻰ ﻓﺘﺮة ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺜﻮرة، ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ زﻳﻨﺐ أﺑﻮ اﻟﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺪور اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدى ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ اﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮﻳﺔ، وﻳﺸﺮح دﻳﭭﻴﺪ ﺳﻴﻤﺰ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻹﺳﻜﺎن ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺜﻮرة، وأﺧﻴﺮاً، ﻳﻘﺪم ﻛﻠﻴﻤﻨﺖ ﻫﻨﺮى ﲢﻠﻴﻼً ﻟﻔﻜﺮة اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻻﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﻓﻰ اﳉﻤﻬﻮرﻳﺔ اﳉﺪﻳﺪة. v Chronology: Timeline until July 3, 2013 1981: Hosni Mubarak becomes president after the assassination of Sadat. Jan. 25–Feb. 11, 2011: Demonstrations in Cairo and elsewhere lead to Mubarak’s resignation. Feb. 11, 2011: Te military takes over, dissolves the parliament elected in late 2010, and suspends the constitution. March 3, 2011: Ahmed Shafik replaced by Essam Sharaf as prime minister. March 19, 2011: Egyptians approve in a vote the constitutional amend- ments sponsored by the military. Nov. 2011–Feb. 15, 2012: Parliamentary elections are held, won by the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists. Dec. 7, 2011: Essam Sharaf replaced by Kamal al-Ganzouri as prime minister. Feb. 1, 2012: Altercation between football fans in Port Said; over 70 fans from Cairo die. March 17, 2012: Pope Shenouda III dies. May 23–24, 2012: First round of presidential elections is held. June 14, 2012: Te Supreme Constitutional Court orders the dissolving of the lower house of parliament. June 16–17, 2012: Runoff between Muhammad Morsi and Ahmed Shafik. Morsi wins with 51.7% of the vote. July 27, 2012: Hisham Kandil named prime minister in place of Ganzouri. Aug. 12, 2012: Abdel Fattah al-Sisi named defense minister in place of Muhammad Hussein Tantawi. Nov. 22, 2012: Morsi unilaterally declares greater powers for himself. vii viii Chronology: Timeline until July 3, 2013 Dec. 15 and 22, 2012: Referendum on the new constitution, drafted before Nov. 30 and approved on this date. Dec. 29, 2012: Te Egyptian Central Bank declares that foreign reserves have fallen to a critical minimum, to $15B from $36B in 2010; value of the pound slides. April 6, 2013: Cairo Papers in Social Science conference. June 30, 2013: Millions of Egyptians demonstrate asking Morsi to step down, continue for several days. July 3, 2013: Military ousts Morsi, suspends constitution, and imposes an interim technocrat government. Adly Mansour named interim president, and Beblawi prime minister. New constitution and new elections promised. CHAPTER 1 Introduction The Political Economy of the New Egyptian Republic Nicholas S. Hopkins From time to time since its founding, the Cairo Papers in Social Science (CPSS) has published an issue which provides an overview of some aspect of the social situation in Egypt, with particular reference to its political and economic aspects.