28th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF GLOBAL INSTALLED PHOTOVOLTAIC CAPACITY AND IDENTIFICATION OF HIDDEN GROWTH MARKETS Ch. Werner1,2,3, Ch. Breyer4, A. Gerlach1 1 Hanwha Q CELLS GmbH, Sonnenallee 17-21, 06766 Bitterfeld-Wolfen OT Thalheim, Germany 2 now with: Hanergy Holding Group, Potsdamer Platz 10, 10785 Berlin, Germany, E-mail: [email protected] 3 FernUniversität in Hagen, Universitätsstr. 11, 58084 Hagen, Germany 4 Reiner Lemoine Institut gGmbH, Ostendstraße 25, 12459 Berlin, Germany, E-mail:[email protected] ABSTRACT The installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) is rising steadily. Most PV is installed in highly electrified countries as on-grid systems. Further there are reams of small off-grid systems in rural areas of developing countries. Due to this, reliable installation rates for PV are available only for a small number of countries. For the end of 2012 EPIA reports 102,156 MWp of installed PV capacity giving data for 50 countries, whereas 2,098 MWp are not allocatable to specific countries. IEA-PVPS provides data for 89,500 MWp installed in 23 countries. This Paper gives an overview on installed PV for all countries in the world, being predicated on the examination of public accessible data. Furthermore, an analysis on development of cumulative PV capacities in recent years is given. Resulting from this evaluation, PV installations are localized in 190 countries claiming 98,988 MWp. Keywords PV Markets, Installed Capacity, PV Installation, Market Growth 1 EXAMINATION METHOD ‘exports A’ + ‘production A’ = ‘market A’. The production volumes refer to the publications of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) magazine ‘Photon’ on the topic of production output [2]. provides 2,098 MWp estimated, which is commonly At this attention is paid to the fact that approximately named as Rest-of-World (RoW) countries. However, for 25% of annual productions are installed in the following these RoW countries no reliable estimation of installed year. PV is available, because a considerable part is represented by off-grid systems, with a lack in public Since data are including monetary value of the products, authority monitoring, and respective markets are too a conversion to PV capacities is necessary. For this small for international monitoring. To enhance a reliable purpose a reliable estimation of PV prices per Wp for valuation of developing countries photovoltaic markets, every country is needed. These price data refer to a the examination of several sources is necessary ensuring worldwide annual average PV module price per Wp [3, a credible estimation. 4]. Since prices depend on countries’ locations and Basic source is an international customs database, market sizes, there is a great ratio of diverging. Therefore monitored by the ‘Market Analysis and Research’ section all countries are classified in five main groups with one of the International Trade Centre, which is an agency of of them having two subgroups, each representing a group UN’s World Trade Organization. This database contains of countries that are nearly comparable in market size and the customs data of all countries worldwide since the year economic conditions. World’s average price is multiplied 2000, receiving the data from the particular national with a factor quoting the ratio of countries’ price for each customs authorities. The database provides the of these groups. The ratio is based on experiences and opportunity to evaluate the total value of imported and statements of several countries’ experts that have been exported products for each country per year. contacted [5-14] and has been validated in previous Furthermore, a possibility of evaluating bilateral trades publications [15, 16]. Since the given world’s average for a specific product is given. Products are classified in annual PV prices are selling prices of modules’ several specific product numbers, so-called HS Codes, producers, a factor of 10% is added considering being obligated by more than 200 countries, customs and distributor margins, shipping, etc. Therewith, prices of economic unions, representing more than 98% of world’s the year 2012 are diverging between 1.09 USD/Wp for trade [1]. HS Code group 854140 represents advanced PV market countries and 2.66 USD/Wp for ‘photosensitive semiconductors devices, photovoltaic small PV applications in African and Asian low-income cells and light emitting diodes’. More specific countries as it can be seen in Table 1. descriptions with detailed determination in codes between light emitting diodes and PV are available for To lower the probability of error, further sources with approximately 95% of the data. Otherwise an experienced installation rates estimated by EPIA, International Energy ratio of 80% PV and 20% light emitting diodes is used Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA- then. Surprisingly, a large number of developing PVPS), journal du photovoltaique, the European countries’ customs agencies have reported detailed data. Commision and Hanwha Q CELLS market research are It is valid that: ‘imports A from B’ = ‘exports B to A’. used [17-22]. Data have been assigned for 190 countries in a period of 2000 until 2012. Basis of the calculation of PV capacities per country is the following assumption: ‘import A’ – 4733 28th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition [$/Wp] year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 average world price: 100% 5.17 4.96 4.36 4.13 4.24 4.55 5.07 4.57 4.38 2.53 2.05 1.65 1.21 countries >100MW/y 90% 4.66 4.47 3.92 3.72 3.82 4.09 4.56 4.11 3.94 2.28 1.85 1.49 1.09 countries >10MW/y 110% 5.69 5.46 4.79 4.55 4.67 5.00 5.57 5.02 4.82 2.78 2.26 1.82 1.33 countries >5MW/y 150% 7.76 7.44 6.54 6.20 6.36 6.82 7.60 6.85 6.57 3.79 3.08 2.48 1.82 countries <5MW/y 180% 9.31 8.93 7.84 7.44 7.63 8.19 9.12 8.22 7.89 4.55 3.70 2.97 2.18 countries <1MW/y 200% 10.35 9.93 8.71 8.27 8.48 9.10 10.13 9.14 8.76 5.06 4.11 3.30 2.42 Africa & Asia 220% 11.38 10.92 9.59 9.10 9.33 10.01 11.14 10.05 9.64 5.57 4.52 3.63 2.66 Europe & NA & LA 190% 9.83 9.43 8.28 7.86 8.06 8.64 9.62 8.68 8.33 4.81 3.90 3.14 2.30 Table 1: PV price for conversion of customs values into PV [3, 4]. Abbreviations stand for North America (NA) and Latin America (LA). Besides, all sources are weighted in a certain order. For 92% of worlds PV installations. Furthermore, there are countries that have own cell or module production, the 17 additional countries claiming more than 100 MWp per arithmetic mean of all sources except customs data is country (Rep. Korea, Bulgaria, Canada, Slovakia, taken for estimation of installation rates, due to Thailand, Austria, Ukraine, Switzerland, Denmark, production margins and local PV value chain structures Netherlands, Israel, Portugal, Slovenia, Taiwan, South influencing the reliability of the customs database. In Africa, United Arab Emirates, Russia). However, several case of countries having no production, the average of all developing countries show significant installed PV base, sources is used. in particular Bangladesh (84 MWp), Peru (49 MWp), Indonesia (34 MWp), Nigeria (29 MWp), Kenya (18 Due to statistical impacts of additional databases, it is MWp), Philippines (16 MWp) and many more. In these seldom possible that estimated installed PV capacities by countries PV installations are mainly realized as off-grid end of 2012 can be less than those estimated by end of systems, i.e. 5 MWp solar home systems with an average previous years. size of 50 Wp represent a solar power solution for 100,000 families [23]. 2 OVERVIEW ON PV INSTALLATIONS 2012 Within the use of this examination, world’s total installed PV capacity is estimated to be up to 98,988 MWp in the end of 2012. It is expected that there are further 487 MWp that have been installed before 2000. PV installations are able to be found in almost all countries. Appendix Table 1 includes the results for PV installation rates for all countries in the world by end of 2012. Figure 2: Installed PV capacity per world region by end of 2012. Figure 2 points the cumulative installed PV capacity until end of 2012 for each region of the world. Europe shows the highest PV installation rates, with 69,140 MWp claiming more than 70% of world’s PV. Even without the Figure 1: Total installed PV capacity per country by end dominating German market, Europe would be in the lead. of 2012. East Asian and North American markets represent 8,410 MWp and 8,280 MWp respectively. Further there are As it can be seen in Figure 1 Germany is dominating the three regions having an installed PV base more than one market with a share of nearly 33% of total global GWp per region (China, Australia and Oceania, India). installed PV. 13 markets claim more than one GWp of Rest-of-Asia (720 MWp), former Soviet Union (550 PV capacity by end of 2012. Those 13 biggest markets, MWp), MENA (500 MW), Africa (317 MWp), Latin Germany (32,260 MWp), Italy (16,300 MWp), United American (212 MWp) and Central American (104 MWp) States (7,400 MWp), Japan (7,230 MWp), China (6,890 markets show less than one GWp of installed PV.