Savills World Research Singapore Briefi ng Offi ce sector August 2016 Image: City Hall, Beach Road SUMMARY CBD Grade A rents continued to fall as weak demand and elevated supply levels kept the market under pressure. According to the statistics from individual desks designed for freelance The looming supply, together URA’s Real Estate Information System workers or start-ups, has become a with the weakening offi ce demand (REALIS), by Q2/2016, island-wide new demand driver in the CBD area. caused by greater economic offi ce leasing volumes had decreased uncertainties, will continue to weigh for the fourth consecutive quarter, with The average vacancy rate of on the market. The situation could be 1,022 deals recorded. 782 contracts, or CBD Grade A offi ces remained low exacerbated when tenants move out 76.5% of the total transactions, were at 4.4% as at the end of Q2/2016. of existing buildings to new builds, for premises of 2,000 sq ft or less. However, because the total available starting from the second half of 2016. stock stayed the same as Q1, the The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ market experienced a negative and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP absorption of just 4,000 sq ft. “While the outlook for vacancy are under negotiations to lease offi ce space at Marina One, a 1.88 million- For CBD Grade A offi ce buildings, rates looks dour, rents may sq ft premium offi ce development Savills statistics showed that the in Marina Bay that is scheduled for average gross monthly rent fell 1.3% well prove relatively inelastic on completion in early 2017. from S$9.21 per sq ft in Q1/2016 to S$9.10 per sq ft in Q2/2016, while the the downside.” Alan Cheong, Savills Shared co-working space, which capital value held fi rm and averaged at Research provides fl exible offi ce spaces with S$2,723 per sq ft in Q2/2016. MCI (P) 022/10/2015 Company Reg No. 198703410D savills.com.sg/research 01 Briefi ng | Singapore offi ce sector August 2016 Market commentary residents and citizens in June 2016, contracts, or 76.5% of the total The Ministry of Trade and Industrial with the seasonally-adjusted overall transactions, were for premises of (MTI) announced that in the April- unemployment rate rising to 2.1% in 2,000 sq ft or less. The increasing June period, the Singapore economy June 2016 from 1.9% three months number of completed, small, ago. expanded, on a quarter-on-quarter strata-titled offi ce units could be (QoQ), seasonally-adjusted one major reason behind this, but The deterioration in the business basis, by 0.3%, slower than the at the same time, it most likely environment inevitably affected advance estimate of 0.8% given illustrates that most companies offi ce occupiers’ sentiments, which in mid-July. Amid subdued global have adopted a conservative in turn led to a sluggish offi ce strategy when accessing their real and local economic conditions, leasing market. According to the estate requirements amid a dimmer the job market is also facing statistics from URA’s REALIS, business and economic outlook. challenges, with slower employment by Q2/2016, island-wide offi ce growth and increasing layoffs. leasing volumes had decreased On a brighter note, some big deals Preliminary estimates showed that for the fourth consecutive quarter, unemployment had risen for both with 1,022 deals recorded. 782 are brewing in the offi ce towers of the upcoming Marina One, a 1.88 million-sq ft premium offi ce GRAPH 1 development in Marina Bay that is Net demand, net supply and vacancy rate of CBD Grade A expected to be completed in early offi ces, 2006–1H/2016 2017. The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU) is negotiating to Net demand (LHS) Net supply (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS) lease about 140,000 sq ft and will 4,000 40% move in mid-2017 from Republic Plaza I where the bank is currently 3,500 35% occupying about 150,000 sq ft. 3,000 30% Another potential tenant is one that is presently residing in the 2,500 25% PWC Building as its anchor tenant, 2,000 20% PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. 1,500 15% The company is also said to be in advanced discussions to lease sq ft ('000)sq ft 1,000 10% about 180,000 sq ft. Together with 500 5% other small tenants, such as Daiwa Securities, Marina One reported that 0 0% it had already leased over 550,000 -500 -5% sq ft of offi ce space ahead of its -1,000 -10% completion in 2017. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H/2016 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy Separately, under the pressure of high rents for traditional offi ce space, shared co-working space, GRAPH 2 which provides fl exible offi ce spaces Price and rental indices of CBD Grade A offi ces, Q1/2006– with individual desks designed for Q2/2016 freelance workers or start-ups, has become a new demand driver in the Price index Rental index CBD area. Besides low occupancy 250 costs, such premises also provide the community culture of an offi ce 200 space with access to professional necessities such as meeting rooms, as well as fl exibility and freedom 150 essential to the users. Recent examples include the 20,000-sq ft 100 co-working space on the 12th fl oor Q1/2003 = 100 of Capital Tower by a joint venture between CapitaLand and co- 50 working space operator Collective Works, and the 10,000-sq ft Hub@ 0 Cuppage, which will occupy a row of 10 heritage shophouses at Cuppage Terrace, providing both hot desks Source: Savills Research & Consultancy and private offi ces. savills.com.sg/research 02 Briefi ng | Singapore offi ce sector August 2016 TABLE 1 Micro-market Grade A offi ce rents and vacancy rates, Q2/2016 Monthly rent Location (S$ per sq ft per month) Vacancy rate (%) Marina Bay 11.30 5.3 Raffl es Place 9.41 2.9 Shenton Way 8.08 5.1 Tanjong Pagar 8.00 9.5 City Hall 9.22 4.3 Orchard Road 9.20 3.7 Beach Road/Middle Road 7.51 4.0 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy In spite of tepid buying activity for Generally, tenants have moved from held fi rm, averaging S$2,723 per sq offi ce properties, two investment building to building, taking up the ft in Q2/2016. Consequently, yields sales set records in their categories. same or smaller-sized offi ces, or became more compressed. The fi rst was Indonesian tycoon Mr. taken over the shadow space of Tahir’s acquisition of the 999-year other tenants who were looking to Compared with the previous leasehold Straits Trading Building pre-terminate ahead of their lease quarter, except for the Shenton for S$560.0 million. This works out expiry. Way area where the rents remained at S$3,524 per sq ft of net lettable unchanged, rental decline was area (NLA), which is the highest By location, vacancy rates in witnessed in all the other micro- price per sq ft for an offi ce building the Shenton Way, Tanjong Pagar markets that Savills tracked, and for in Singapore. The other is the and Orchard Road sub-markets the Marina Bay and City Hall areas, S$3.38 billion (or S$2,674 per sq ft continued to inch up, mainly the rental decline accelerated by NLA) sale of Asia Square Tower 1 because of tenants’ relocation. 4.0% and 1.4% respectively. by BlackRock. This is the highest Among these, the vacancy rate in ever transaction price for a single Tanjong Pagar recorded the biggest building in Singapore. These two quarterly increase of 1.4% in Q2, deals to some extent confi rmed followed by 0.7% in Shenton Way institutional investors and ultra-high and 0.5% in Orchard Road. In net worth individuals’ confi dence in contrast, occupancy in the Marina the local market over the medium to Bay, Raffl es Place, City Hall and long term. Beach Road submarkets improved in Q2, with vacancy rate sliding Demand, supply and marginally from 0.1 to 0.6 of a vacancy percentage point (ppt) QoQ. As at the end of Q2/2016, the average vacancy rate of CBD Grade Rental and capital A offi ces remained low at 4.4%. values On a quarterly basis, the vacancy For CBD Grade A offi ce buildings, rate dipped by just one basis point Savills statistics showed that from that of a quarter ago. This is the average gross monthly rent because the total available stock continued to soften, falling 1.3% stayed the same as Q1, while QoQ from S$9.21 per sq ft in the market saw a slight negative Q1/2016 to S$9.10 per sq ft in absorption of about 4,000 sq ft. Q2/2016. However, capital values savills.com.sg/research 03 Briefi ng | Singapore offi ce sector August 2016 OUTLOOK The prospects for the market With additional downside risks looming supply, together with the could mitigate the conventional view arising from slower global weakening offi ce demand caused that rents will come off sharply. economic growth and China’s by greater economic uncertainties, rising corporate credit levels, will continue to weigh on the market. The supply side is dynamic, and Singapore’s trade-dependent The situation could be exacerbated one possibility that could dampen economy is expected to slow when tenants move out of existing rental declines is developers taking in the second half of 2016.