USDA Midwest and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub: Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Photo Credit: (Betts, 2011) Authors: Jerry Hatfield, Midwest Hub Lead; Christopher Swanston, Northern Forests Sub Hub Lead; Maria Janowiak, Northern Forests Sub Hub; Rachel F. Steele, National Climate Hubs Coordinator, Washington D.C. Midwest Hub National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment 2110 University Blvd. Ames, Iowa 50011 Northern Forests Sub Hub USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station Forestry Sciences Lab Houghton, MI March 2015 Contributors: Our thanks to Jon Hempel, NRCS; Juliet Bochicchio, RD; Wendy Hall, APHIS; Marlene Cole, APHIS; Sharon Hestvik, RMA; and John Whitaker, FSA. We acknowledge ICF International for its contributions to the Greenhouse Gas Profile. Edited by: Terry Anderson and Derald Everhart, ARS Contents Letter from the Regional Lead ...................................................................................................................... 4 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1. Description of the Region and Key Resources ............................................................................. 6 1.2. Demographics and Land Uses ....................................................................................................... 7 1.3. General Climate Conditions, Extremes, and Past Impacts ............................................................ 7 1.4. Summary of National Climate Assessment Regional Climate Scenarios ..................................... 7 Temperature .......................................................................................................................................... 8 Precipitation .......................................................................................................................................... 8 Growing Season .................................................................................................................................... 8 Additional Climate Features ................................................................................................................. 8 Expected Changes ................................................................................................................................. 9 2. Regional Agriculture’s Sensitivity to Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies ............................... 9 2.1. Cropping Systems Overview of Risks, Vulnerabilities, and General Adaptation Strategies ........ 9 2.2. Agricultural Ecosystem Drivers and Stressors ............................................................................ 12 Greater Extreme Precipitation and Seasonality Shifts ........................................................................ 12 Longer and Warmer Growing Seasons ............................................................................................... 13 Increased Humidity ............................................................................................................................. 13 Impacts on Agricultural Systems ........................................................................................................ 13 Workable Field Days .......................................................................................................................... 13 Soil Erosion ......................................................................................................................................... 14 Drainage and Water Management ....................................................................................................... 14 Vulnerability Assessments for Agricultural Systems ......................................................................... 14 Early Spring Agricultural Operations ................................................................................................. 14 Late Spring and Early Summer Operations ........................................................................................ 15 Summer Growing Conditions ............................................................................................................. 15 Early Fall Conditions .......................................................................................................................... 16 Post-harvest and Late Fall Conditions ................................................................................................ 16 Winter Conditions ............................................................................................................................... 17 Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 17 3. Forest Systems: Overview of Risks, Vulnerabilities, and General Adaptation Strategies .................. 17 3.1. Forest Ecosystem Drivers and Stressors ..................................................................................... 17 Longer Growing Seasons .................................................................................................................... 17 Shorter, Warmer Winters .................................................................................................................... 18 Increased Extreme Precipitation ......................................................................................................... 18 Changes in Soil Moisture and Drought ............................................................................................... 18 Enhanced Fire Risk ............................................................................................................................. 18 Intensified Biological Stressors .......................................................................................................... 19 3.2. Factors That Increase Risks to Ecosystems ................................................................................ 19 3.3. Tree Species and Ecosystem Shifts ............................................................................................. 20 Reduced Habitat for Northern and Boreal Species ............................................................................. 20 Altered Forest Composition ................................................................................................................ 20 Changes in Forest Productivity ........................................................................................................... 20 3.4. Considerations by Ecoregion ...................................................................................................... 21 Laurentian Mixed Forest ..................................................................................................................... 21 Eastern Broadleaf Forest ..................................................................................................................... 22 Prairie Parkland ................................................................................................................................... 23 3.5. Forest Sector Adaptation Strategies ............................................................................................ 24 Principles of Forest Adaptation........................................................................................................... 24 Strategies, Planning, and Implementation ........................................................................................... 24 Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 25 4. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile and Mitigation Opportunities ...................................................... 26 4.1. Soil Carbon Stock Changes......................................................................................................... 26 4.2. Nitrous Oxide Emissions ............................................................................................................ 27 4.3. Methane Emissions from Rice Cultivation ................................................................................. 28 4.4. Livestock GHG Profile ............................................................................................................... 28 4.5. Enteric Fermentation ................................................................................................................... 29 4.6. Emissions from Manure Management Systems .......................................................................... 29 4.7. Forest Carbon Stocks and Stock Changes ................................................................................... 30 4.8. Mitigation Opportunities ............................................................................................................. 31 Agricultural Soils ................................................................................................................................ 33 Land Retirement .................................................................................................................................. 33 Manure Management .......................................................................................................................... 33 Enteric Fermentation ..........................................................................................................................