Translating Plans to Development Public Disclosure Authorized Impact and Effectiveness of Urban Planning in Tanzania Secondary Cities Translating Plans to Development Plans Translating Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized October 2018 Public Disclosure Authorized Chyi-Yun Huang Ally Namangaya MaryGrace W. Lugakingira Isabel D. Cantada 9961_CVR.indd 2 11/30/18 2:15 PM © 2018 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “Huang, CY; Namangaya, A.; Lugakingira M. W.; Cantada, I. D. 2018. Translating Plans to Development: Impact and Effectiveness of Urban Planning in Tanzania Secondary Cities. Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@ worldbank.org. 9961_Tanzania Regional Pilot.indd 2 12/14/18 8:12 AM TRANSLATING PLANS TO DEVELOPMENT Impact and Effectiveness of Urban Planning in Tanzania Secondary Cities OCTOBER 2018 Chyi-Yun Huang Ally Namangaya MaryGrace W. Lugakingira Isabel D. Cantada 9961_Tanzania Regional Pilot.indd 1 12/14/18 8:12 AM This report was prepared by a core team led by Chyi-Yun Huang and comprising Dr. Ally Namangaya of Ardhi University, MaryGrace W. Lugakingira, and Isabel D. Cantada. Various spatial analyses and data were contributed through the support of the Earth Observation for Sustainable Development (EO4SD) Urban Project, a partnership between the European Space Agency and the World Bank, and for this study executed primarily by GAF Germany, led by Sharon Gomez and Thomas Hausler, together with Amelie Broszeit and Daniela Angelova. The team would also like to thank Prosper Tugonzomukama and Xiang Xu for their technical inputs, and Roderick Babijes for his administrative support. The report benefited from guidance and support from Andre Bald, Program Leader of the Tanzania Country Man- agement Unit, and was developed under the overall leadership of Bernice K. Van Bronkhorst, Practice Manager of the East and South Africa Region Urban and Disaster Risk Management Unit. The team extends its gratitude to the counterparts in the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development (MLHHSD), particularly under the guidance of Prof. John Lupala, with Mr. Amulike Mahenge and their teams, as well as the President’s Office of Regional Administration and Local Governments (PO-RALG) under the guidance of Eng. Davis Shemengale, Eng. Ezron Kilamhama, Mr. Charles Mariki, and their teams, for the timely feedback, the support offered in the elaboration of this study, and the excellent collaboration throughout. Last but not least, the team thanks the Local Government Authorities of Arusha, Dodoma, Kigoma, Mbeya, Mtwara, Mwanza, and Tanga and their staffs for their close cooperation in providing critical data and insights on the subject. This study was made possible through the generous support of the Korea Green Growth Trust Fund (KGGTF) and the Korea-World Bank Group Partnership Facility (KWPF). The KGGTF is a partnership between the World Bank Group and the Republic of Korea. As an implementation-focused trust fund that prioritizes the World Bank’s inclusive green growth objectives, this partnership supports countries in their sustainable growth strategies and investments. In addition to funding, the KGGTF enhances other World Bank tools and value-added services by providing access to technical experts and facili- tating dialogue between practitioners of green growth policies and investments. The KGGTF strength- ens and expands the World Bank’s climate smart investment portfolio. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views and position of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the Government of Tanzania. 9961_Tanzania Regional Pilot.indd 2 12/14/18 8:12 AM Contents List of Acronyms.........................................................................vii Executive Summary. 1 1. Background and Study Scope . 4 Rationale for Study . .4 Scope of Study . .5 Organization of the Report. .7 Endnotes . .7 2. Development Context. 8 Urban Development Context . .8 Policy and Institutional Context. 13 Endnotes . .25 3. Key Findings. 27 Land-Use and Land-Cover Conformity to Master Plans and Detailed Area Plans. .27 Observable Spatial Development Trends and Analysis of Secondary Cities . .35 Endnotes . 48 4. Key Takeaways. .50 Endnotes . .53 5. Recommendations . .54 References and Bibliography. 61 iii 9961_Tanzania Regional Pilot.indd 3 12/14/18 8:12 AM List of Figures Figure 1.1: Phases of the Study . .6 Figure 2.1: Census Data Population (1988–2017) . .8 Figure 2.2: Decomposing Urban Change into Natural Growth and Migration (2002–12). .9 Figure 2.3: Share of Employed Population by Main Occupation in Case Cities . 10 Figure 2.4: Characteristics of Current Urban Planning Framework and Mechanisms. 17 Figure 2.5: Urban Planning Solutions and Strategies at the National, City, and Neighborhood Levels. 19 Figure 3.1: Arusha: Conformity to 1985 Master Plan. .28 Figure 3.2: Conformity of Major Land Uses in Mid-2010s with Master Plans . .29 Figure 3.3: Mwanza: Conformity to 1992 Master Plan . .32 Figure 3.4: Level of Conformity for Economic Land Uses in Core Urban Area . .33 Figure 3.5: Arusha: Conformity to Detailed Area Plan . 34 Figure 3.6: Size and Expansion Comparison of Arusha, Dodoma, and Kigoma. 36 Figure 3.7: Urban Growth Type and Rate of Arusha, Dodoma, and Kigoma, 2000 to 2015 . 36 Figure 3.8: Discontiguity Index Results of Arusha, Dodoma, and Kigoma (2000–15) . 39 Figure 3.9: Population Density Comparison . 42 Figure 3.10: Changes in Planned and Unplanned Settlement Areas (Arusha, Dodoma, Kigoma) between 2005 to 2015 (percent of residential land area) . 45 Figure 3.11: Presence of Housing on No-Build Areas and Flood-Prone Areas . .4 List of Tables Table 2.1: State of Infrastructure and Services in Selected Cities . 11 Table 2.2: Characteristics of Formally Planned and Unplanned Settlements (observed in Dar es Salaam) . 12 Table 2.3: Key Urban Sector Development Policies in Tanzania . 15 Table 2.4: Summary Status of Master Plan Development in the Case Cities . 20 Table 2.5: Status and Nature of Master Plan Development in the Case Cities (since independence) . 21 Table 3.1: Conformity of Major Land Uses with Arusha 1985 Master Plan and Dodoma 1976 Master Plan across Time . 30 Table 3.2: Conformity of Major Land Uses in Mid-2010s with Detailed Plan Samples . .33 Table 5.1: Summary of Recommendations . 54 List of Boxes Box 2.1: The Role of Draft GPSs . .25 List of Maps Map B2.1.1: 1976 versus 2010 Land-Use Maps . .25 Map 3.1: Typical Land-Use and Land-Cover Conformity Analysis Performed for Case Cities, Showing Arusha . .27 Map 3.2: Changes from Agricultural Areas to other Land-Cover Classes between 2005 and 2015, Core Urban Area of Arusha . 30 Map 3.3: Unplanned and Planned Residential Areas for Mwanza Core Urban Area . 31 Map 3.4: Example of a Detailed Area Plan in Arusha . 34 iv ■ Translating Plans to Development 9961_Tanzania Regional Pilot.indd 4 12/14/18 8:12 AM Map 3.5: Growth Analysis 2000–2015 for Arusha, Dodoma, and Kigoma. .37 Map 3.6: Directional Distribution of Arusha, Dodoma, and Kigoma Over Time (2000–15) . 41 Map 3.7: Spatial Distribution of Changes from Agricultural Areas to Other Land Use between 2005/06 and 2015/16 (at similar scale) . 43 Map 3.8: Changes in Road Networks in Selected Cities, from Mid-2000s to Mid-2010s . ..