CHALLENGING THE STATUS QUO: THE RISE AND CONSEQUENCES OF ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT PARTIES IN WESTERN EUROPE A Dissertation by JASON MATTHEW SMITH Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY May 2009 Major Subject: Political Science CHALLENGING THE STATUS QUO: THE RISE AND CONSEQUENCES OF ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT PARTIES IN WESTERN EUROPE A Dissertation by JASON MATTHEW SMITH Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Approved by: Chair of Committee, Robert Harmel Committee Members, Alexander Pacek Michael T. Koch Harland Prechel Head of Department, James Rogers May 2009 Major Subject: Political Science iii ABSTRACT Challenging the Status Quo: The Rise and Consequences of Anti-Establishment Parties in Western Europe. (May 2009) Jason Matthew Smith, B.A., University of North Texas; M.A., University of North Texas Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Robert Harmel This dissertation examines two interconnected research questions: What conditions give rise and lead to the electoral success of anti-establishment parties and what are the consequences of this electoral success? Literature concerning anti- establishment parties fails to investigate this phenomenon in its entirety by focusing disproportionately on the electoral success of these parties neglecting the consequences of this electoral success. Although the electoral success of anti-establishment parties and the subsequent consequences have different theoretical underpinnings, the effects that anti-establishment parties have on individual parties and the party system are dependent upon the electoral success of these of parties. Therefore, this dissertation focuses on both the electoral success and the consequences of anti-establishment parties in Western Europe. Concerning electoral success, this dissertation offers a new approach to the literature by arguing that anti-establishment parties, regardless of their placement on the political spectrum, are born out of the dissatisfaction towards traditional parties within the electorate. Using quantitative analyses of eighteen Western European countries iv covering the time period 1970-2005, this dissertation offers a unified analysis of anti- establishment parties, regardless of their placement on the political spectrum, examining the political, social, and economic conditions that give rise to the anti-establishment party phenomenon. The findings indicate that while the factors leading to the emergence of anti-establishment parties may be the same regardless of the placement of these parties on the political spectrum, the factors leading to their electoral success are dependent upon their ideological orientation. Furthermore, the electoral success of these new parties has consequences for other individual parties and the broader party system. This dissertation argues that the existence of these parties alone is not enough to accomplish this aim; these parties must be seen as threats to existing mainstream parties on either the left or the right or in some cases, both. In order to counter the threat from these anti-establishment parties, traditional parties may change their ideological positions or organizational structures. Utilizing qualitative (face-to-face interviews with party elites) and evidence from party manifestos from 1970-2005 in six countries, these analyses indicate that the electoral success of anti-establishment parties affects individual parties by altering the ideological placement, particularly on issues relevant to anti-establishment party electoral success. To a lesser extent, traditional parties alter their organizational structures (i.e., allocating more power to rank-and-file members, regional, and local branches), in order to counter this new electoral threat. Moreover, the electoral success of anti-establishment parties causes instability within the broader party system. Utilizing quantitative, statistical methods to analyze v eighteen western European countries between 1970 and 2005, this dissertation finds that the electoral success of anti-establishment parties increases the amount of electoral volatility and the amount of polarization both within the system and between traditional parties. However, anti-establishment parties do not mobilize the electorate leading to increases voter turnout in these eighteen countries. Finally, anti-establishment parties, by gaining seats in national legislatures, upset the traditional coalitional dynamics. As such, the electoral success of anti-establishment parties leads to shorter coalitional governments within the party systems of Western Europe. vi To Connie, Kellye, and Meaghan vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS As with any other, the completion of this doctoral dissertation was not a solo effort. I owe a debt of gratitude to many people, both here at Texas A&M University and beyond, without whom the dissertation you are about to read would not be possible. First, I would like to thank the members of my committee. I would like to thank my committee chair, Dr. Robert Harmel. His patience and direction from the initial proposal to the end were invaluable. We did not always see eye-to-eye during the process, but the light at the end of the tunnel is that much brighter due to his guidance. His assistance in conducting the field research for this project taught me lessons that will remain with me throughout my academic career. Dr. Michael Koch took time away from his own research agenda to assist in the writing process of this dissertation reading through many of the chapters before their completion. His assistance and guidance during the writing of the dissertation became a valuable learning experience. Dr. Harland Prechel provided guidance in crafting the survey instrument necessary for the proper conduct of my field research. All that I know concerning organizational theory comes from his instruction, patience, and time. I owe a debt of gratitude to my colleagues and the faculty and staff of the Department of Political Science at Texas A&M University. The amount of support, both in terms of financial and emotional assistance, which I received throughout my time here made the project and many others possible. I look forward to continuing the many friendships that I developed during my academic career with the department. In viii particular, I owe Lou Ellen Herr and Carrie Kilpatrick my sincerest thanks for their friendship. I also want to extend my gratitude to the European Union Center for Excellence, which provided financial support for conducting field research in both 2007 and 2008. Without this assistance, this dissertation would be a mere number crunching exercise without any real world application. Their generous grants allowed me to travel to Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway to conduct interviews with various political party officials. This experience, which is probably the most rewarding to emerge from this project, would not have been possible without Dr. Guy Whitten, Lucero Carranza, Emily Weers, and Elaine Tuttle and their assistance in procuring these grants and arranging travel itinerary. Dr. Matthew Hoddie in the Department of Political Science at Towson University provided the most valuable guidance of all during the proposal stage of this dissertation. Taking time for his own research, he read through the proposal providing thoughtful and constructive criticism to get this project off the ground. Finally, but foremost, I owe to greatest debt to my family and friends. To my parents, William and Connie, I owe everything. Their unconditional love, guidance, and constant encouragement, some pleasant and not so pleasant, allowed me to continue striving for this accomplishment. I could not wish for a better brother, Chris, or sister, Kellye, than I have. Their love and encouragement during my academic career, and it has been a career, could not make me more proud to call them my brother and sister. Without the strength and love of my family, none of my accomplishments would be ix possible or have meaning. To my friends, Carl, Cary, Jonathan, and Shawn who have been around this quest for a long time, I give my thanks and gratitude. Your friendships have meant the world to me. The last, but by no means the least, debt I owe in this project is to Meaghan, my love and companion. The love, patience, and encouragement you have given me while finishing this dissertation provided all the strength necessary to see this through to the end. To you all, I am forever in your debt. x TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................. iii DEDICATION .......................................................................................................... vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................... vii TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................... x LIST OF FIGURES................................................................................................... xiii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... xv CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION: UNDERSTANDING THE EMERGENCE OF ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT PARTIES AND ITS CONSEQUENCES.............................................................................