University of Central Florida STARS Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 2009 Landcover Change And Population Dynamics Of Florida Scrub- jays And Florida Grasshopper Sparrows David Breininger University of Central Florida Part of the Biology Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Doctoral Dissertation (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Breininger, David, "Landcover Change And Population Dynamics Of Florida Scrub-jays And Florida Grasshopper Sparrows" (2009). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019. 3820. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd/3820 LANDCOVER CHANGE AND POPULATION DYNAMICS OF FLORIDA SCRUB-JAYS AND FLORIDA GRASSHOPPER SPARROWS by DAVID R. BREININGER B.S. Florida Institute of Technology, 1978 M.S. Florida Institute of Technology, 1981 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Biological Science in the College of Science at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Spring Term 2009 Major Professor: Reed F. Noss ABSTRACT I confronted empirical habitat data (1994-2004) and population data (1988-2005) with ecological theory on habitat dynamics, recruitment, survival, and dispersal to develop predictive relationships between landcover variation and population dynamics. I focus on Florida Scrub-Jays, although one chapter presents a model for the potential influence of habitat restoration on viability of the Florida Grasshopper Sparrow. Both species are unique to Florida landscapes that are dominated by shrubs and grasses and maintained by frequent fires. Both species are declining, even in protected areas, despite their protected status. I mapped habitat for both species using grid polygon cells to quantify population potential and habitat quality. A grid cell was the average territory size and the landcover unit in which habitat-specific recruitment and survival occurred. I measured habitat- specific recruitment and survival of Florida Scrub-Jays from 1988-2008. Data analyses included multistate analysis, which was developed for capture-recapture data but is useful for analyzing many ecological processes, such as habitat change. I relied on publications by other investigators for empirical Florida Grasshopper Sparrow data. The amount of potential habitat was greatly underestimated by landcover mapping not specific to Florida Scrub-Jays. Overlaying east central Florida with grid polygons was an efficient method to map potential habitat and monitor habitat quality directly related to recruitment, survival, and management needs. Most habitats for both species were degraded by anthropogenic reductions in fire frequency. Degradation occurred across large areas. Florida Scrub-Jay recruitment and survival were most ii influenced by shrub height states. Multistate modeling of shrub heights showed that state transitions were influenced by vegetation composition, edges, and habitat management. Measured population declines of 4% per year corroborated habitat- specific modeling predictions. Habitat quality improved over the study period but not enough to recover precariously small populations. The degree of landcover fragmentation influenced mean Florida Scrub-Jay dispersal distances but not the number of occupied territories between natal and breeding territories. There was little exchange between populations, which were usually further apart than mean dispersal distances. Florida Scrub-Jays bred or delayed breeding depending on age, sex, and breeding opportunities. I show an urgent need also for Florida Grasshopper Sparrow habitat restoration given that the endangered bird has declined to only two sizeable populations and there is a high likelihood for continued large decline. A major effect of habitat fragmentation identified in this dissertation that should apply to many organisms in disturbance prone systems is that fragmentation disrupts natural processes, reducing habitat quality across large areas. Humans have managed wildland fire for > 40,000 years, so it should be possible to manage habitat for many endangered species that make Florida’s biodiversity unique. This dissertation provides methods to quantify landscape units into potential source and sink territories and provides a basis for applying adaptive management to reach population and conservation goals. iii I dedicate this to my family, Vanessa, Robbie, Daniel, and Joshua. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Dozens of people and organizations encouraged, assisted, and facilitated this research. Reed Noss and Jim Nichols constantly encouraged, mentored, humored and kept me focused on the important stuff while maintaining patience. I also thank Pedro Quintana-Ascencio and John Weishampel. I owe much to Ross Hinkle now Biology Department Chair. Not enough can be said for my boss Carlton Hall, manager of Kennedy Space Center’s Ecological Programs. Many colleagues were relentlessly supportive, especially Eric Stolen, Brean Duncan, and Geoff Carter. David Anderson provided philosophical approaches to several analyses and Jim Hines aided with many numerical estimation issues in MARK. I also thank Mike Legare, Donna Oddy, Paul Schmalzer, Judy Elseroad, Vickie Larson, Brian Toland, Brad Stith, Reed Bowman, John Fitzpatrick, Glen Woolfenden, Becky Bolt, Mark Burgman, Resit Akcakaya, Bill Knott, Burt Summerfield, Steve Brisbin, Dawn Zattau, Keith Fisher, Marilyn Knight, Laurelee Thompson, Beth Armstrong, Keith Winstein, Anne Birch, Margaret Broussard, Marianne Korosy, Mike Jennings, Fred Adrian, Karl Miller, Craig Faulhaber, Fred Johnson, Steve McGuffy, Chris O’hara, David Demeyer, Xavier de Seguin des Hons, Samantha McGee, Ron Hight, Mike Knight, Mark Wright, Maria Zondervan, Kimbery Wright, Michelle Smurl, David Turner, Hilary Swain, John Sauer, Barney Dunning, Robin Bjork, Gregg Schrott, James Tucker, Beth Powell, and Sue Gosselin. Funding was provided by NASA, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Brevard Zoo, Florida Fire Science Team, Brevard Nature Alliance, Allen Broussard v Conservancy, and Friends of Scrub. Brevard County Environmentally Endangered Lands Program, Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, St. Sebastian River State Park Preserve, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, The Nature Conservancy, and St. Johns River Water Management District facilitated research. Many biologists and managers from the above organizations eagerly applied many of the things learned during this research and, in so doing, greatly facilitated further learning about relationships between Florida Scrub-Jays and their habitats. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………………………………………..x LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………………………….xi INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 1 GENERAL GOALS ...................................................................................................... 2 SCIENCE BACKGROUND .......................................................................................... 4 LANDCOVER CHARACTERIZATIONS AND FLORIDA SCRUB-JAY POPULATION DYNAMICS ................................................................................................................... 11 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 11 METHODS................................................................................................................. 14 Study areas............................................................................................................ 14 Habitat mapping..................................................................................................... 16 Population distribution............................................................................................ 17 Habitat-specific demography and dispersal ........................................................... 18 Demographic analyses........................................................................................... 20 Dispersal analyses ................................................................................................. 22 RESULTS .................................................................................................................. 23 Habitat and population trends ................................................................................ 23 Demography .......................................................................................................... 29 Dispersal ................................................................................................................ 32 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................ 34 Habitat potential ..................................................................................................... 34 Effects of reduced fire frequencies......................................................................... 38 Edge effects ........................................................................................................... 40 Dispersal and