Plant the Seeds: Opportunities to Grow Southern Ontario’s Fruit & Vegetable Sector JRG Consulting Group Greenbelt Foundation Occasional Papers March 2020 Copyright © 2020 Greenbelt Foundation All Rights Reserved Greenbelt Foundation 661 Yonge Street, Suite 500 Toronto, Ontario M4Y 1Z9 Canada Tel (416) 960-0001 Fax (416) 960-0030 [email protected] www.greenbelt.ca ISSN 1912-4171 Greenbelt Foundation Occasional Paper Series (Print) ISSN 1912-418X Greenbelt Foundation Occasional Paper Series (Online) The Greenbelt Foundation is committed to promoting awareness and education about Ontario’s Greenbelt. To this end we occasionally publish research and general interest papers that explore our three program areas: viable agriculture and viticulture; vibrant rural communities; and, a restored and protected natural environment. Plant the Seeds: Opportunities to Grow Southern Ontario’s Fruit & Vegetable Sector Prepared by JRG Consulting Group ISBN 978-1-927075-16-6 The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors only and do not necessarily represent the views of the Greenbelt Foundation, their Officers or Directors. We have done our best to confirm that all facts and figures are accurate. However, we do not retain liability for any errors or misrepresentations. Acknowledgments The Greenbelt Foundation would like to thank the members of our Advisory Committee for their valuable input and insight: Alison Robertson, Erin Atchison, Janet Horner, Jason Bent, and Stephen Duff. Titles in the Greenbelt Foundation Occasional Paper Series 1- Farmers’ Markets: Opportunities for Preserving Greenbelt Agriculture 2 - The Holland Marsh: Challenges and Opportunities in the Greenbelt 3 - Planting the First Seed: Creating Opportunities for Ethnic Farmers & Young Farmers in the Greenbelt 4 - Greenbelt Walks: An Overview of the Opportunities and Challenges of Major Trails in the Greenbelt 5 - Ontario’s Greenbelt in an International Context: Comparing Ontario’s Greenbelt to its Counterparts in Europe and North America 6 - Greenbelt Agriculture: A Breakdown of Agricultural Facts and Figures in the Greenbelt 7- Bringing Local Food Home: Legal, Regulatory and Institutional Barriers to Local Food 8 - Greening the Economy: Economic Stimuli and the Opportunity for Restructuring for Sustainability in Canada 9 - Greenbelt Grown: A Profile of Agriculture in Ontario’s Greenbelt 10 - Holland Marsh Agricultural Impact Study 11 - Ontario’s Greenbelt in an International Context 12 - Inside and Out: Sustaining Ontario’s Greenbelt 13 - Climate Change Adaptation: Ontario’s Resilient Greenbelt 14 - Evaluating the Economic Benefits of Greenbelt Assets 15 - Farming in Ontario’s Greenbelt: Possibility Grows Here 16 - Agriculture by the Numbers: Understanding the Greenbelt’s Unique Advantages 17 - Local Leadership Matters: Ontario Municipalities Taking Action to Strengthen the Greenbelt 18 - Greenbelt Farmers: Sowing the Seeds of Success 19 - Plan to Achieve: A Review of the Land Needs Assessment Process and the Implementation of the Growth Plan 20 - Ontario’s Good Fortune: Appreciating the Greenbelt’s Natural Capital 21 - Agriculture Trends and Updates: Understanding the Greenbelt’s Unique Advantages 22 - Greenbelt Farmers: Sustaining Soil Health 23 - Investing in the Future: The Economic Case for Natural Infrastructure in Ontario 24 - Plant the Seeds: Opportunities to Grow Southern Ontario’s Fruit & Vegetable Sector Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................17 2.0 Situational Analysis of Ontario’s Fruit and Vegetable Sector ...........................................................21 2.1 Trends in Per Capita Consumption ................................................................................................22 2.2 Trends in Production ..........................................................................................................................23 2.3 National Supply and Disposition of Fruits and Vegetables...................................................27 2.4 Fresh Market Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains.....................................................................29 2.5 Pricing in the Supply Chain ..............................................................................................................30 2.6 Farm Gate Value of Fruits and Vegetables and Fresh Market Share ..................................31 2.7 Size and Structure of Growers .........................................................................................................34 2.8 Land Base ................................................................................................................................................39 3.0 Factors Affecting Production Expansion ................................................................................................45 3.1 Competitive Forces .............................................................................................................................45 3.2 Forces Contracting Production .......................................................................................................49 3.3 Constraints to Expanding Production ..........................................................................................49 4.0 Crops Selected for Further Analysis ..........................................................................................................53 4.1 Criteria Used to Select Crops ...........................................................................................................53 4.2 Fruit Crops Selected ............................................................................................................................55 4.3 Vegetable Crops Selected .................................................................................................................56 4.4 Vertical Farming and Produce Expansion ...................................................................................57 5.0 Fresh Grapes .....................................................................................................................................................59 5.1 Supply and Disposition Overview .................................................................................................59 5.2 Production Expansion Opportunity ..............................................................................................60 5.3 Expansion Constraints and Impediments ...................................................................................61 5.4 Factors That Will Enable Expansion ...............................................................................................65 6.0 Pears .....................................................................................................................................................................67 6.1 Supply and Disposition Overview .................................................................................................67 6.2 Production Expansion Opportunity ..............................................................................................68 6.3 Expansion Constraints and Impediments ...................................................................................68 6.4 Factors That Will Enable Expansion ...............................................................................................73 7.0 Strawberries ......................................................................................................................................................75 7.1 Supply and Disposition Overview .................................................................................................75 7.2 Production Expansion Opportunity ..............................................................................................77 7.3 Expansion Constraints and Impediments ...................................................................................79 7.4 Factors That Will Enable Expansion ...............................................................................................83 8.0 Garlic ....................................................................................................................................................................85 8.1 Supply and Disposition Overview .................................................................................................85 8.2 Production Expansion Opportunity ..............................................................................................86 8.3 Expansion Constraints and Impediments ...................................................................................88 8.4 Factors That Will Enable Expansion ...............................................................................................93 9.0 Eggplant .............................................................................................................................................................95 9.1 Supply and Disposition Overview .................................................................................................95 9.2 Production Expansion Opportunity ..............................................................................................96 9.3 Expansion Constraints