Appendix F Model Development Report This page intentionally left blank. Westside Mobility Plan Model Development Report December 2015 WESTSIDE MOBILITY PLAN MODEL DEVELOPMENT REPORT December 2015 Originally Prepared in 2011; Updated in 2015 for CTCSP & West LA EIR Prepared for: LOS ANGELES DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Prepared by: 201 Santa Monica Boulevard, Suite 500 Santa Monica, California 90401 (310) 458-9916 Ref: SM10-2416 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Model Development ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Overview................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Roadway Network .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Transit Network .................................................................................................................................................... 10 TAZ Structure ........................................................................................................................................................ 12 3. Model Component Modifications ................................................................................................................. 17 Initialization .......................................................................................................................................................... 17 Network Skimming ............................................................................................................................................... 17 Trip Generation .................................................................................................................................................... 18 Trip Distribution ................................................................................................................................................... 20 Modal Split ........................................................................................................................................................... 21 Production/Attraction (PA) to Origin/Destination (OD) ....................................................................................... 22 Trip Assignment .................................................................................................................................................... 22 Feedback Stage ..................................................................................................................................................... 24 Model Run Time ................................................................................................................................................... 25 Peak Hour Traffic Volumes ................................................................................................................................... 25 4. Static Model Validation................................................................................................................................. 27 Model Validation .................................................................................................................................................. 29 5. Dynamic Model Validation ............................................................................................................................ 38 Land Use Tests ...................................................................................................................................................... 38 Highway Network Tests ........................................................................................................................................ 41 Transit Network Tests ........................................................................................................................................... 47 Induced and Suppressed Demand Tests............................................................................................................... 50 Auto Trip Variables Tests ...................................................................................................................................... 52 Summary of Dynamic Validation Testing Results ................................................................................................. 53 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................... 55 6. The 4D Process .............................................................................................................................................. 56 Introduction to the “D”s ....................................................................................................................................... 56 “D” Elasticity Values ............................................................................................................................................. 57 Initial Sensitivity Tests .......................................................................................................................................... 58 Model Integration ................................................................................................................................................ 62 7. Amendments to CTCSP & WLA TIMP ............................................................................................................. 65 SCAG RTP Consistency .......................................................................................................................................... 65 Project List updates .............................................................................................................................................. 66 CTCSP & WLA TIMP Impact Analysis..................................................................................................................... 72 APPENDICES Appendix A: LADCP Base Year Land Use Changes Appendix B: Socio-Economic Data Appendix C: Network Skimming Appendix D: Trip Distribution Appendix E: Mode Split Appendix F: Trip Assignment Appendix G: Traffic Counts Appendix H: Peak Period Static Model Validation and Screenline Results Appendix I: Peak Period Dynamic Model Validation Results Appendix J: Westside TDF Model Plots for Existing, 2035 without Project, and 2035 Plus Project Conditions LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 – Model Focus Area ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2 – Components of the Travel Demand Model .................................................................................................. 4 Figure 3 – Roadway Network Modifications.................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 4 – All-Day Travel Lanes ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 5 – Peak Period Parking Restrictions .................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 6 – Westside Transit Network .......................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 7 – Traffic Analysis Zone Modifications ............................................................................................................ 13 Figure 8 – Static Model Validation Traffic Count Locations ......................................................................................... 30 Figure 9 – Static Model Validation Screenlines ........................................................................................................... 31 Figure 10 – Dynamic Validation Test – Add/Remove Highway Network Capacity ...................................................... 43 Figure 11 – Dynamic Validation Test – Add a Link ....................................................................................................... 44 Figure 12 – Dynamic Validation Test – Delete a Link ................................................................................................... 46 Figure 12 – Dynamic Validation Test – Delete a Link ................................................................................................... 46 Figure 13 – Dynamic Validation Test – Induced Demand ............................................................................................ 54 Figure 14 – 4D Enhancement Model Integration ........................................................................................................ 63 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Model TAZ Structure Comparison ................................................................................................................... 14 Table 2 Westside Study Area Socioeconomic Data .................................................................................................... 14 Table 3 City of Santa Monica Model Base Year (2008) Land Use Comparison ............................................................ 15 Table