BROADBAND TODAY BROADBAND TODAY A STAFF REPORT TO WILLIAM E. KENNARD, CHAIRMAN FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION ON INDUSTRY MONITORING SESSIONS CONVENED BY CABLE SERVICES BUREAU DEBORAH A. LATHEN BUREAU CHIEF CABLE SERVICES BUREAU OCTOBER 1999 BROADBAND TODAY TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD . 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 8 I. BROADBAND: THE DEBATE OVER ACCESS . 9 A. The Debate Defined . 9 The Issue . 10 The Parties . 10 Arguments For Mandated Open Access . 11 Arguments Against Mandated Open Access . 11 B. Roots of the Debate . 12 The First 706 Report . 12 The AT&T/TCI Merger. 12 AT&T/TCI v. City of Portland . 13 C. Recent Developments . 14 Broward County. 14 San Francisco. 14 City of Fairfax . 14 Other Localities. 15 Congressional Action. 15 Federal Policy . .15 II. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND . .16 A. What is Broadband? . 16 As Defined in the Section 706 Report . .17 The Definition of Broadband is Elastic and Does Not Include Content. .17 B. Cable Broadband. 18 Changing Architecture. 18 Hybrid Fiber-Optic Coaxial Cable (HFC) . .18 Increased Bandwidth, Cleaner Transmission . 18 Not Without Problems. 19 C. Telephone Company Broadband- Digital Subscriber Lines (xDSL). 20 D. Wireless Technologies: Fixed Wireless and Satellite . .21 BROADBAND TODAY 3 III. THE BROADBAND INDUSTRY . 23 A. Generally. 23 Narrowband Still Dominant. 23 B. Internet Over Cable. 23 Cable Modem Deployment: Over 1 Million Subscribers . .25 Industry Projections for Cable Modem Deployment and Plant Upgrades. 26 C. DSL Deployment. 27 Industry Projections and Announcements for DSL. 28 D. Wireless Technologies: Fixed Wireless and Satellite . 29 IV. PRELIMINARY FINDINGS . 31 A. The Cable Bureau’s Monitoring Sessions. 31 B. Participants. 31 C. Questions Posed to Participants. 32 D. Responses and Preliminary Findings. 32 1. The broadband industry is nascent . 32 2. Cable modem deployment spurs alternative broadband technologies . 33 3. Regulation or the threat of regulation ultimately slows deployment of broadband. 33 4. Market forces will compel cable companies to negotiate access agreements with unaffiliated ISPs, preventing cable companies from keeping systems closed and proprietary. 34 5. If market forces fail and cable becomes the dominant means of Internet access, regulation might then be necessary to promote competition. 35 6. There was no consensus on how to implement “open access” from a regulatory perspective. 36 7. There was no consensus on how to implement “open access” from a technical perspective. 39 BROADBAND TODAY 4 8. Rapid nationwide broadband deployment depends on a national policy . 39 V. ANALYSIS . 41 A. Risks of the Commission Continuing Its Policy of Regulatory Restraint . 41 B. Benefits of the Commission Continuing Its Policy of Regulatory Restraint . 44 C. Evidence the Commission’s National Broadband Policy is Facilitating Vigorous Deployment and Competition . 46 VI. CONCLUSION . 47 ENDNOTES . 48 APPENDIX A: Breakdown of Online Universe APPENDIX B: Residential Broadband Subscribers 1999 – 2007 APPENDIX C: Questions Submitted to Panelists GLOSSARY BROADBAND TODAY 5 The Blind Man and the Elephant It was six wise men of Indostan To learning much inclined, Who went to see the Elephant – (though all of them were blind), That each by observation—might satisfy his mind. The First approached the Elephant, And happening to fall Against his broad and sturdy side—At once began to bawl: “God bless me! But the Elephant—Is very like a wall! The Second, feeling of the tusk, Cried, “Ho! What have we here? So very round and smooth and sharp – To me ‘tis mighty clear This wonder of an Elephant – Is very like a spear. The Third approached the animal, And happening to take The squirming trunk within his hands, -- Thus boldly up and spake: “I see,” quote he, “the Elephant—Is very like a snake!” The Fifth who chanced to touch the ear, Said: “Even the blindest man Can tell what this resembles most; -- Deny the fact who can, This marvel of an Elephant – Is very like a fan!” The Sixth no sooner had begun About the beast to grope, Than seizing on the swinging tail –That fell within his scope, “I see”, said he, “the Elephant – Is very like a rope! And so these men of Indostan Disputed loud and long, Each in his own opinion –Exceeding stiff and strong Though each was partly in the right –And all were in the wrong! --John Godfrey Saxe BROADBAND TODAY 6 FOREWORD In May and July 1999, at the request of Chairman Kennard, the Cable Services Bureau, with the participation of the Common Carrier Bureau, the Office of Plans and Policy, and the Office of Engineering and Technology, convened a series of Monitoring Sessions on the state of the broadband industry. The goal of these Sessions was threefold: (1) to establish an ongoing dialogue with the major stakeholders involved in the provision and delivery of broadband services to American consumers; (2) to obtain a comprehensive perspective on the status of the residential broadband industry; and (3) to receive perspectives on the Commission’s regulatory policy options. We invited a distinguished and diverse group of experts, including representatives from Internet service providers (ISPs), online service providers (OSPs), local exchange carriers (LECs), long distance telephone companies (IXCs), community organizations, financial analysts, academics and local franchising authorities (LFAs). We asked these participants to engage in candid, not-for-attribution discussion of the major issues and challenges facing consumers, the industry, regulators and policymakers with respect to the deployment of broadband services. The following Report contains our summary and analyses of those Monitoring Sessions, in addition to a current survey of the issues, technological developments and market trends that have become integral to the broadband debate. We have learned a great deal about the state of the broadband industry as a result of those sessions. We have discovered that broadband is an awesome, yet largely inchoate, technology that will bring the Internet and advanced services to millions of Americans. We have learned that the Commission’s longstanding de-regulatory policy toward enhanced services, generally, and broadband services, particularly, has contributed to the Internet’s phenomenal growth. And we have learned that there is yet much to learn. We have learned that not even the experts are any more “sighted” at this early stage of the rapidly evolving broadband industry than the wise men of Indostan referred to at the beginning of this Report. While it is clear that broadband will play an important role in the lives of most Americans, it is not clear whether current systems will maintain their same positions in the broadband industry, or whether new, and as yet undiscovered systems will dominate the market in the long term. The splintered and divergent views expressed by the experts in our Monitoring Sessions demonstrate the difficulty in arriving at these conclusions. Although this Report endeavors to capture the sense of where things are now, we recognize that the rapid pace of technological development and a dynamic and competitive market will require our monitoring efforts to continue. Thus, we anticipate holding future Monitoring Sessions with other sectors of the broadband industry, BROADBAND TODAY 7 including e-commerce and Internet companies, to ascertain their views on the relevant issues. We acknowledge and appreciate the cooperation and expert assistance of the Directors and staff of the Office of Plans and Policy, the Office of Engineering and Technology, and the Chief and staff of the Common Carrier Bureau, without which we would not have been able to prepare this Report.* Deborah A. Lathen Bureau Chief Cable Services Bureau BROADBAND TODAY 8 Executive Summary This Report summarizes the results of two sets of Monitoring Sessions conducted by the Cable Services Bureau on recent developments, major issues, and the current state of the broadband industry. At the outset, the Monitoring Sessions had two principal objectives: (1) To ascertain a better understanding of the broadband industry since the filing of the Section 706 Report; and (2) To answer the question: Should the government require cable companies to provide access to their plant by unaffiliated Internet and online service providers? Part I examines the principal issues, parties and arguments in the open access debate. This part traces the roots of the open access issue as discussed in the FCC’s first Section 706 Report to Congress, the Commission’s Memorandum and Order on the AT&T/TCI License Transfer, and the Commission’s “friend of the court” brief in AT&T v. City of Portland. This part also discusses recent developments in legal, legislative and regulatory proceedings, particularly actions by municipalities. Part II outlines the definition of broadband as defined in Section 706 of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 and provides an in-depth technical discussion of broadband service and technology. Part III discusses the broadband industry at large and provides a snapshot of the state of cable modem, digital subscriber line (DSL), fixed wireless, and satellite technologies for the provision of Internet services. It also details the schedules and projections for deployment of these technologies. Part IV details the preliminary findings reached in the Monitoring Sessions convened by the Bureau. This part also lists the participants (by category) and summarizes the questions posed to the participants and their responses. Part V contains the conclusions reached as a result of the Report, particularly whether the government, at this time, should mandate that cable operators provide access by unaffiliated Internet service and on-line service providers to the cable platform. BROADBAND TODAY 9 I. Broadband: The Debate Over Access A. The Debate Defined Broadband refers to technology that will allow users to access the Internet and Internet-related services at speeds significantly higher than traditional narrowband modems allow. Currently, many Americans who use the Internet do so at speeds of less than 56kbps. Broadband technology allows users to access the Internet at.