30 Predicting the impacts of climate change on golden plovers Most studies of changes in the To examine this, we analysed large- and craneflies emerged earlier, in timing of bird breeding in scale climatic correlates of the warmer springs. response to climate change have timing of golden plover breeding, focused on temperate passerines. and the timing of emergence of In combination with historical However, large-scale modelling of adult craneflies (tipulids), an climate data, these models suggest bird distribution in relation to important prey of plover chicks, to golden plover first laying dates climate suggests that the assess the potential for climate advanced by nine days during the consequences of such change may change to disrupt breeding 1990s. Climate predictions for be more severe for northern and performance. The results showed 2070–2099 suggest potential upland species. that golden plovers nested earlier, advances in golden plover first laying Steve Knell (rspb-images.com) Steve Adult golden plover in moorland breeding habitat 31 dates by 25 days, mean first-clutch Correlations between golden plover first-laying dates and April dates by 18 days, and mean cranefly temperature (top), and the peak of tipulid emergence and May emergence by 12 days. Given that temperature (bottom). Data from different study locations chick growth rates are correlated presented as different symbols. with the abundance of adult 55 craneflies, these changes may result in a mismatch between the timing of 45 first-laying dates and cranefly emergence, so reducing the success of early breeding attempts. 35 This work forms a precursor to a 25 new RSPB/SNH project, which will (1=1st April) assess the relative sensitivity of a range of northern and upland 15 species to climate change. It will Mean golden pl date laying over particularly focus on whether future 5 climate change will decouple the link 45678910 April temperature (°C) between the timing of bird breeding and peak availability of their prey. Contact: 50 james.pearce-higgins @rspb.org.uk 40 This study was undertaken in collaboration with Universities of 30 Manchester and Newcastle. (1=1st May) Pearce-Higgins JW and Yalden DW 20 (2004) Habitat selection, diet, Mean tipulid emergence arthropod availability and growth of a moorland wader: the ecology of 10 European Golden Plover Pluvialis 789101112 apricaria chicks. Ibis 146: 335–346. May temperature (°C) Pearce-Higgins JW, Yalden DW and Whittingham MJ (2005) Warmer springs advance the breeding phenology of golden plovers Pluvialis apricaria and their prey (Tipulidae). Oecologia 143: 470–476. See also: 2001: 37; 2004: 34–35 and 40.