PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY AS A KEY FOR CONFLICT REDUCTION AND REDUCING THE THREAT POSED BY RADICAL ISLAMISTS Prof h.c. Dr. h.c. Zoran R. Vitorovic, President, Association Swiss Morning Star & Swiss Center for Humanitarian Law (e-mail: [email protected]) Abstract In this paper the author focuses on preventive diplomacy in order to increase confidence and diffuse tensions between the parties of a conflict. Since the concept of preventive diplomacy has become binding on all members of the UN, they must build trust and partnership relations in order to reduce the prospects of violent conflict between states by applying PD. The paper also deals with why states have not yet managed to find a solution to form the Global Village, a key vision in seeking to combat conflict and crisis. Key words: asymmetry, diplomacy, conflict, UN, concept Introduction -magic phrase “Preventive Diplomacy (PD)” In the multipolar world of today, which is slowly growing, one of the models for easing and reducing the incidence of asymmetric conflicts is certainly the use of preventive diplomacy. The basic idea was promoted by the first UN General Secretary U Tanta and developed by UN General Secretary Boutros Boutros – Ghali in a UN “Report Agenda for Peace” 1. The idea is that, at the very least, by recognising and paying attention to the appearance of “smoke” we may be able to prevent the outbreak of “fire and conflict”. This focus on prevention was discussed at numerous international conferences. It was not until 1971, however, when the expert of psychodynamics of ethnic conflict, Professor Joseph Montville2, pointed out the importance and essence of preventive diplomacy (PD) as a mechanism for preventing the emergence of conflicts, that PD really became an integral part of global processes. This was the reason why I addressed this concept of Preventive Diplomacy in a book issued in 20033 under the same name. In that book I am pointing out that this concept moves beyond the diplomacy of everyday situations which are linked by “vertical lines” inside of one society, and “horizontal lines” through the so called “bridges of interest groups” between two states, that can be in some form of conflict. People of the same ideas connect first through informal groups, after that when the number of informal group members increases they begin to put pressure on the top of the pyramid in the society or state administration. This bonding takes place in various spheres of sports (sports diplomacy), and in literature, science, culture, politics. 1http://www.un-documents.net/a47-277.htm,Agenda for Peace, Preventive diplomacy, peace making and peace- keeping, Report of the Secretary General, UN, 17.jun 1992., A/47/277 ), pristup interentu 23.06.2017 2Dr Josef Montwille , Interrview, Radio Deutsche Welle, 18.jun 1995 3Zoran Vitorovic.: „Preventivna Diplomatija, kako spreciti sukobe i ratove”,Ars Libry, Beograd, 2003., str. 23-27 The basic motives for all those involved in these informal groups are spreading the idea of communion, unity of diversity, and ultimately (at the end) the prevention of conflict. One of the ultimate consequences of the use of preventive diplomacy is the change of existing structures in power, and another is a stronger connection with the same-minded “on the other side of the state border.” When the so-called “critical mass” is formed, it begins to act like a torrent of a river flowing in one direction. At a later stage, this torrent, by the nature of the dynamics of the groups involved in social processes, chooses the leaders. In the beginning, everything is structured in so-called informal social groups, and in the end, the political entity is born in the form of a party or movement. The most obvious example is the case of “Solidarnosc” in Poland which ultimately chose Leh Valens as leader. However, like any idea born on healthy ground, the ways in how preventative diplomacy has been used and pursued often looks like a case of Nobel’s Dynamite. The dynamite was supposed to help people to overcome easily the natural obstacles. However, it was used more in conflicts and wars rather than more upstream for genuine peaceful preventative purposes. More clearly explained, it all looks like the story about a little Indian who came back from the forest. Dad, the tribal chief asked him, “Son, I see that you had try to send smoke signals, but I did not understand the message.” The little Indian replied “I did not send anything, my blanket was on fire”. Today, the practice of how preventive diplomacy is used, often seems to look like story of small Indian. It’s enough to point out the cases of “Arab Springs” that began with the goals of getting rid of power from dictatorial and authoritarian regimes, and at the end of the day all switched to chaos and destabilization of Libya, Egypt and Iraq. The same has happened in Ukraine, after “Majdan”, where a dispute started with a protest and finally ended with a civil war. American strategists were the first who had used the program of preventive diplomacy to develop mechanisms of the so-called non-violent regime change. On other side, great superpowers like China or Russia did not sit with crossed hands and wait. They also began the develop and implement numerous models of preventive diplomacy in order to achieve their own desired geopolitical aims. The importance of preventative diplomacy concepts can be seen in the number of centres that have been established in America, China, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, and Indonesia. So today we have: - The Center for Preventive Diplomacy of Japan, founded in 1995, led by distinguished Japanese dipomat Jasusi Akashi. Given that the term “preventive diplomacy” was quite incomprehensible for most of NGO activists in Japan, and following the need for a wider social engagement, the founders were in February 2002. Renamed the Center’s name into the Conflict Prevention Center. The Centre strives to work through programs which could properly address potential conflicts “at an early stage of development”. If the conflicts fail, then the activation of a whole series of actions leading to rapid conflict eruption follows. After that, the program’s accent is to eradicate all neuralgic spots whose activation and to stop the conflict with to prevent all points which could lead to wars again. In the prevention programs are included literally all - from individuals to the state and non-governmental organizations and business associations. To make the prevention effective, it is necessary: - first, clearly define the terms used in each phase of conflict prevention, - secondly, to establish the theoretical framework for the determination of one particular conflict and - thirdly, develop an early warning system for all potential problems that may escalate into an armed conflict The Chairman of the Centre, Mr. Jasusi Akashi, says that after 1989, the largest number of conflicts in the world is based on ethnic or religious diversity and adds: “If the international community really wants an effective way to deal with potential conflicts, then it must adopt a general principle that would correspond with the UN Charter, were is particularly important to distinguish and established : the rule of law, social justice, respect for human rights, freedom of the media and the good State Administration (good governance)”. - Jordanian Institute for Democracy Founded in June 2000 as a Centre for Early Warning and Conflict Prevention. In the strategic development policy, it was first started from the determination of the present current situation in this part of the world, which, according to analysts, has always had plenty of ties, misunderstandings and potential hot spots. The next step in the development of the centre is the establishment of a data bank on the economic, political and social development of the countries of the Middle East, in cooperation with representatives of the ministries of Foreign affairs ... To keep peace and stability and prevent all forms of conflict disputes, the Centre has formed the huge network of non-governmental organizations for early warning of potential conflicts. - Swedish IDEA Institute In Sweden, the International Institute for Democracy and Election Support IDEA works largely on analyses of current events and the prevention of potential conflicts. The IDEA’s characteristic of the work is to link the conflict-management tools with a process of the development of democracy, whereby democratic institutions are used as a basic tool for solving potential conflicts. IDEA’s orientation is to stimulate the development of dialogue by strengthening civic society organizations, tolerance of confinement, which most directly affects the prevention of all types of possible conflicts. The programs are so pious that they offer practical means for democratization of some environment, whereby resources are adapted to concrete truths. For example, in the guide “Democracy and Reconciliation”, the creators of political processes give concise instructions and advice that help them implement the democratic values in a post-conflict society. - German’s Schleswing-Holstein Institute for PeaceResearch (SHIP) It was formed in the German city of Kille at the Kristian Albrecht Institute in 1995. with goals aimed at solving potential conflicts in the Baltic region of the state. In the publication “Papers from Kiel”, which is regularly issued by the SHIP Institute, problems in the domain of preventive diplomacy are dealt with in particular. - Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) After the Paris Summit of the Heads of State or Government, held on November 19-21. In November 1990, OBES began with the establishment of the CPC Conflict Prevention Centre. At the Paris Summit of the OSCE, new elements of international politics have been introduced, which the organization is especially mindful of: human rights, democratization of society and the rule of law.